Diaz does not need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft

[Luke-OH]

9 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Now, there are easily ten players I could take off the current roster to make room for players but I don't think Sedlock and McKenna are no-brainers.

Akin, Kremer and Mountcastle are the no brainers...

Mckenna, Fenter, Klimek (who you don't have) and Sedlock are the next level to consider.

Alvarado, Cumberland and Muickenhirm are the only others I'd give any consideration to.

My tiers are pretty similar to Tony's unsurprisingly.

Akin, Kremer, and Mountcastle

McKenna, Sedlock, Cumberland, Fenter

Klimek, Muckenhirn, Alvarado, Bautista, Peralta, Perez

I'd try and protect the first two tiers. 

If the Orioles had a very strong 40 man roster, it'd probably just be the first tier. But that's not the case.

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

My tiers are pretty similar to Tony's unsurprisingly.

Akin, Kremer, and Mountcastle

McKenna, Sedlock, Cumberland, Fenter

Klimek, Muckenhirn, Alvarado, Bautista, Peralta, Perez

I'd try and protect the first two tiers. 

If the Orioles had a very strong 40 man roster, it'd probably just be the first tier. But that's not the case.

What's the deal with Cumberland?   I thought he was an offensive catcher who was not that good defensively.  Do you really think the O's will protect him from the Rule 5 draft?

Do you mean  Felix Bautista?  Please tell me why.

I am guessing you mean Luis Perez not Carlos.

[Luke-OH]

20 minutes ago, wildcard said:

What's the deal with Cumberland?   I thought he was an offensive catcher who was not the good defensively.  Do you really think the O's will protect him from the Rule 5 draft?

Do you mean  Felix Bautista?  Please tell me why.

I am guessing you mean Luis Perez not Carlos.

Yeah, Cumberland is an offensive-minded catcher. He missed time this year, but was arguably the Orioles best minor league bat when healthy. He improved on his walk rate and K rate. Those improvements are backed up by a more fluid swing. He's a switch-hitter and if unprotected, will likely be the best hitting player available in the Rule 5 draft who can handle catching duties. 

Yes Felix Bautista, he was touching 100-101 regularly late in the season with a slider that flashed above average. He's the hardest throwing player in the system. He has without a doubt, a major league frame, arm action, and premium stuff. Yeah, there are command issues and it's a big jump from A ball to the MLB, which is why he's in the third tier.

Yes, Luis Perez, he t98 in an all-star appearance and even in longer appearences, his 92-95mph sinking, tailing fastball is very hard to square up. He also has an above average slider that mirrors the fastball movement in the opposite horizontal direction. His issue is also command and it appears he wore out down the stretch, but he was doing a swingman type role and I think he'd fare better in a 1-2 inning reliever role. 

[wildcard]

38 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Yeah, Cumberland is an offensive-minded catcher. He missed time this year, but was arguably the Orioles best minor league bat when healthy. He improved on his walk rate and K rate. Those improvements are backed up by a more fluid swing. He's a switch-hitter and if unprotected, will likely be the best hitting player available in the Rule 5 draft who can handle catching duties. 

Yes Felix Bautista, he was touching 100-101 regularly late in the season with a slider that flashed above average. He's the hardest throwing player in the system. He has without a doubt, a major league frame, arm action, and premium stuff. Yeah, there are command issues and it's a big jump from A ball to the MLB, which is why he's in the third tier.

Yes, Luis Perez, he t98 in an all-star appearance and even in longer appearences, his 92-95mph sinking, tailing fastball is very hard to square up. He also has an above average slider that mirrors the fastball movement in the opposite horizontal direction. His issue is also command and it appears he wore out down the stretch, but he was doing a swingman type role and I think he'd fare better in a 1-2 inning reliever role. 

Thanks Luke.  As always you are a fountain of knowledge.  Looks like Elias has some decisions to make.

[LookinUp]

12 hours ago, survivedc said:

I’m not sure the roster will be handled the same next year as this year. I could see a number of scenarios where Diaz gets called up. For one, I think about mid season it will make sense to have talent learning how to win together. 

Anyway I hope so. I’d like to start seeing interesting guys like Diaz and some of this years AA pitchers.

I have no idea what Elias is thinking, but my lean is Diaz is our #4 prospect, ahead of Mountcastle and Hays. I love the BA/OBP spread and think his overall line is depressed because he played in a poor runs environment and dealt with injuries on and off all year. I'm guessing Tony and Luke will have at least Mountcastle, and maybe even Hays based on his finish (I loved Mountcastle's finish too). Either way, I think Diaz plays a lot in Baltimore next year, but not right away. 

Actually, now that I think of it, when you add in Baumann, I absolutely love the O's top 7 right now, and that's assuming I'm not forgetting anyone (don't have Gunnar as ready for top status yet). 

AR, Hall, Grayson, Diaz, Mountcastle, Hays, Baumann. That's nice. 2021 could be exciting.

[LookinUp]

13 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Now, there are easily ten players I could take off the current roster to make room for players but I don't think Sedlock and McKenna are no-brainers.

Akin, Kremer and Mountcastle are the no brainers...

Mckenna, Fenter, Klimek (who you don't have) and Sedlock are the next level to consider.

Alvarado, Cumberland and Muickenhirm are the only others I'd give any consideration to.

I found this line in a Meoli article really interesting. I wonder if they think Sedlock is very close to being back to where he was? I know this year was definitely a successful one compared to where things stood before, but I don't have any idea if he's back in top 10 org prospect area, for example.

Quote

Elias has touted the ahead-of-schedule successes of the pitching program they imported from Houston, with Holt educating coaches new and old on what was expected. After two years of injuries and a philosophical chasm left former first-round pick Cody Sedlock, in Elias’ words, “dead in the water,” Elias pointed to their new program as having helped him get back on track.

“It was a wonderful story, and there were a lot of them,” Elias said.

 

[Tony-OH]

39 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I found this line in a Meoli article really interesting. I wonder if they think Sedlock is very close to being back to where he was? I know this year was definitely a successful one compared to where things stood before, but I don't have any idea if he's back in top 10 org prospect area, for example.

 

I saw that as well. I was less impressed with his stuff and don't think he's an absolute lock, but considering the guys you could easily take off to protect him just in case, it probably makes sense.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

Yeah, Cumberland is an offensive-minded catcher. He missed time this year, but was arguably the Orioles best minor league bat when healthy. He improved on his walk rate and K rate. Those improvements are backed up by a more fluid swing. He's a switch-hitter and if unprotected, will likely be the best hitting player available in the Rule 5 draft who can handle catching duties. 

Yes Felix Bautista, he was touching 100-101 regularly late in the season with a slider that flashed above average. He's the hardest throwing player in the system. He has without a doubt, a major league frame, arm action, and premium stuff. Yeah, there are command issues and it's a big jump from A ball to the MLB, which is why he's in the third tier.

Yes, Luis Perez, he t98 in an all-star appearance and even in longer appearences, his 92-95mph sinking, tailing fastball is very hard to square up. He also has an above average slider that mirrors the fastball movement in the opposite horizontal direction. His issue is also command and it appears he wore out down the stretch, but he was doing a swingman type role and I think he'd fare better in a 1-2 inning reliever role. 

Bautista does have a nice arm, but his command is way below average and his lack of dominance despite the extreme velocity at his advanced age for the level gives me pause. Perez is a similar profile.

Both are arms that you want in the system and if you wanna put them on and get rid of some dead weight on the 40-man and then push them up hard next year to see what you got then ok, but this team is still going to be doing the DFA dance next year with pitchers so not sure they want to risk losing one on waivers when it's tough to see them making the jump to the big leagues next year anyways.

 

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Bautista does have a nice arm, but his command is way below average and his lack of dominance despite the extreme velocity at his advanced age for the level gives me pause. Perez is a similar profile.

Both are arms that you want in the system and if you wanna put them on and get rid of some dead weight on the 40-man and then push them up hard next year to see what you got then ok, but this team is still going to be doing the DFA dance next year with pitchers so not sure they want to risk losing one on waivers when it's tough to see them making the jump to the big leagues next year anyways.

 

I don't want to protect either, I just think they fit with a third tier of guys who aren't worth protecting but that other teams might consider.

[LookinUp]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I saw that as well. I was less impressed with his stuff and don't think he's an absolute lock, but considering the guys you could easily take off to protect him just in case, it probably makes sense.

Just curious, when did you see Sedlock? Any reason to think his "stuff" improved over the season?

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Bautista does have a nice arm, but his command is way below average and his lack of dominance despite the extreme velocity at his advanced age for the level gives me pause. Perez is a similar profile.

Both are arms that you want in the system and if you wanna put them on and get rid of some dead weight on the 40-man and then push them up hard next year to see what you got then ok, but this team is still going to be doing the DFA dance next year with pitchers so not sure they want to risk losing one on waivers when it's tough to see them making the jump to the big leagues next year anyways.

 

Seems to me like hard throwers are everywhere these days. I would doubt they'd be picked based on your profile of them.

[weams]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

What's the deal with Cumberland?   I thought he was an offensive catcher who was not that good defensively.  Do you really think the O's will protect him from the Rule 5 draft?

Do you mean  Felix Bautista?  Please tell me why.

I am guessing you mean Luis Perez not Carlos.

Cumberland was one of the better hitters at Bowie. 

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Just curious, when did you see Sedlock? Any reason to think his "stuff" improved over the season?

Seems to me like hard throwers are everywhere these days. I would doubt they'd be picked based on your profile of them.

It didn't improve over the course of the season, it improved over the past offseason.

Here is a Sedlock timeline. Pulled from public scouting reports for 2016, mostly public reports from 2017 with a brief personal note, and my reports for 2018-2019

Senior at Illinois: 92-94 t96 two-seam with heavy sink and tail, above average slider and curveball, average change, below average command

Draft year pro (3 inning outings): 93-95 t97, above average slider, fringe average change, didn't throw the curve much, fringe average command

2017: 90-91 t94, still heavy sink and armside tail, as the season progressed, more 88-90. Above average slider and curveball, average change, above average command/control (I wasn't particularly honed in my evaluations at the time but this seems really off, I thought it was not even average command when I saw him live in 2017) Arm/shoulder issues

2018: 87-89 t91, poor arm speed, casting his pitching. some armside, but not the heavy pitch it once was, fringe to average slider and curveball, well below average change (no velocity gap), fringe average command. Looked like an Org guy. Major arm/shoulder issues.

2019: 91-94 t95, converted to a four seam fastball mainly, some ride. above average slider, different pitch than 2016-2018, shorter break, more horizontal than vertical, more deceptive, better command. Average curveball, above average changeup. Fringe average command. Maybe a #5, probably a better fit in the pen, command probably won't get too much better, the arm action is long. College arm speed isn't back, but he's healthy again.

 

 

[Spl51]

28 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

It didn't improve over the course of the season, it improved over the past offseason.

Here is a Sedlock timeline. Pulled from public scouting reports for 2016, mostly public reports from 2017 with a brief personal note, and my reports for 2018-2019

Senior at Illinois: 92-94 t96 two-seam with heavy sink and tail, above average slider and curveball, average change, below average command

Draft year pro (3 inning outings): 93-95 t97, above average slider, fringe average change, didn't throw the curve much, fringe average command

2017: 90-91 t94, still heavy sink and armside tail, as the season progressed, more 88-90. Above average slider and curveball, average change, above average command/control (I wasn't particularly honed in my evaluations at the time but this seems really off, I thought it was not even average command when I saw him live in 2017) Arm/shoulder issues

2018: 87-89 t91, poor arm speed, casting his pitching. some armside, but not the heavy pitch it once was, fringe to average slider and curveball, well below average change (no velocity gap), fringe average command. Looked like an Org guy. Major arm/shoulder issues.

2019: 91-94 t95, converted to a four seam fastball mainly, some ride. above average slider, different pitch than 2016-2018, shorter break, more horizontal than vertical, more deceptive, better command. Average curveball, above average changeup. Fringe average command. Maybe a #5, probably a better fit in the pen, command probably won't get too much better, the arm action is long. College arm speed isn't back, but he's healthy again.

 

 

Wait he was a senior sign? Did he not sign or not get drafted as a Junior? Just don't see many seniors drafted in the first round.

[LookinUp]

Great info on Sedlock. Thanks.

Would you agree that he was a curious first round pick? Even at his best, the profile wasn't exactly a #1/2 starter. Useful arm for sure, but I feel like you usually target more upside than even a pre-injury Sedlock had. 

Well, maybe not. I forgot how low we were picking. #27 that year, so I guess you expect a different profile there.

 

[Luke-OH]

12 minutes ago, Spl51 said:

Wait he was a senior sign? Did he not sign or not get drafted as a Junior? Just don't see many seniors drafted in the first round.

Brain fart on my part. Fixed.