O's Dilemma with Villar

[wildcard]

Rich Dubroff wrote an article about the options that Elias has this off season with Jonathan Villar's contract.   

https://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2019/10/02/orioles-dilemma-comes-jonathan-villar/

I think Elias has been pretty clear about what he plans to do with his arbitration eligible players.  He said he is willing to make trade(s) but he will not give players away.    I think this is  how he will handle Villar.

The way I see it:

1) He will tender Villar

2) He will try to trade him for players that will help the team in the future..

3)  If he does not get a trade he likes he will keep him and try to trade him at the deadline.  

I will add that if the AA/AAA pitchers progress faster than expected next year and Villar is still on the team they could try to extend him in July.  This is because the O's offense will probably be good enough to compete with the addition of Hays and Mountcastle but the pitching is what is holding the O's back.

Elias said that he only traded Cashner for Dominican players because Cashner  would be a free agent in couple of months.  That is not the way he will handle trades the off season from what he has said.

What I think has the highest odds of happening is that Elias finds a trade he likes this off season and Villar is traded for prospects.

 

 

[mdbdotcom]

I think Villar will be traded before the tender deadline for one major league ready relief pitcher and one 17-year old Dominican.

[Roll Tide]

9 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

I think Villar will be traded before the tender deadline for one major league ready relief pitcher and one 17-year old Dominican.

I'm glad you are not the GM!

[Roll Tide]

Quote

 

Second Basemen

Howie Kendrick (36 years old, 1.7 WAR)
Brian Dozier (33, 1.4)
Brock Holt (32, 1.1)
Jason Kipnis (33, 1.0) -- $16.5 million club option for 2020 ($2.5 million buyout)
Jonathan Schoop (28, 0.8)
Wilmer Flores (28, 0.6) -- $6 million club option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)
Brad Miller (30, 0.4)
Gordon Beckham (33, 0.2)
Ben Zobrist (39, 0.0)
Scooter Gennett (30, -0.2)
Starlin Castro (30, -0.2) -- $16 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Yangervis Solarte (32, -0.3)
Josh Harrison (32, -0.6)
Chris Owings (28, -0.8)
Eduardo Nuñez (33, -1.0)

Credit to Bama O's fan who posted this in another thread

Villar at 2-3 WAR is far better than any free agent 2B on the market.

[wildcard]

18 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

I think Villar will be traded before the tender deadline for one major league ready relief pitcher and one 17-year old Dominican.

I doubt Elias would do that. If he is offered that in that time frame I think he will pass and look for a better offer.

[DrungoHazewood]

30 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I will add that if the AA/AAA pitchers progress faster than expected next year and Villar is still on the team they could try to extend him in July.  This is because the O's offense will probably be good enough to compete with the addition of Hays and Mountcastle but the pitching is what is holding the O's back.

Elias said that he only traded Cashner for Dominican players because Cashner  would be a free agent in couple of months.  That is not the way he will handle trades the off season from what he has said.

What I think has the highest odds of happening is that Elias finds a trade his likes this off season and Villar is traded for prospects.

I think he's traded, too.  Villar turns 29 in May, and is a free agent in a year.  I have my doubts that Elias is going to try to sign a pretty good second baseman to a long-term deal into his 30s. Especially not when competing in 2021 still seems like a stretch.  The 2019 Orioles are about 400 runs short of being a contender. They need about 11 pitchers and 3-4 position players.  

[Tony-OH]

Villar is 28 years old and has a skill set that tends to age pretty well. If the right deal is there then you deal him, but there's no reason Villar can't still be a good player in 2021-22 when it will start to matter. I'm not saying you build around him, but I think it's a no-brainer that he will be tendered and on the team next year if they don't get a great trade offer this offseason.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

11 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Credit to Bama O's fan who posted this in another thread

Villar at 2-3 WAR is far better than any free agent 2B on the market.

So he should bring in a decent return in a trade. Even if it's just for one year of him at 3rd year arb prices.

[atomic]

9 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think he's traded, too.  Villar turns 29 in May, and is a free agent in a year.  I have my doubts that Elias is going to try to sign a pretty good second baseman to a long-term deal into his 30s. Especially not when competing in 2021 still seems like a stretch.  The 2019 Orioles are about 400 runs short of being a contender. They need about 11 pitchers and 3-4 position players.  

4 to 5 position players if you trade Villar.  

[DrungoHazewood]

23 minutes ago, atomic said:

4 to 5 position players if you trade Villar.  

It doesn't really matter, because Villar will likely be in need of replacement in 2022 or 2023. A 2-3 win (four on the outside) player at 28 is probably a 1-2 win player at 31 or 32.  That doesn't push you into contention, you still need to find others to do that.

[Aristotelian]

No reason not to keep him as long as he has positive value and isn't blocking anyone. Trade him if he gets a good offer, otherwise tender him and then trade him.  I don't see much of a dilemma at all.

[Philip]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Rich Dubroff wrote an article about the options that Elias has this off season with Jonathan Villar's contract.   

https://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2019/10/02/orioles-dilemma-comes-jonathan-villar/

I think Elias as been pretty clear about what he plans to do with his arbitration eligible players.  He said he is willing to make trade(s) but he will not give players away.    I think this is  how he will handle Villar.

The way I see it:

1) He will tender Villar

2) He will try to trade him for players that will help the team in the future..

3)  If he does not get a trade he likes he will keep him and try to trade him at the deadline.  

I will add that if the AA/AAA pitchers progress faster than expected next year and Villar is still on the team they could try to extend him in July.  This is because the O's offense will probably be good enough to compete with the addition of Hays and Mountcastle but the pitching is what is holding the O's back.

Elias said that he only traded Cashner for Dominican players because Cashner  would be a free agent in couple of months.  That is not the way he will handle trades the off season from what he has said.

What I think has the highest odds of happening is that Elias finds a trade he likes this off season and Villar is traded for prospects.

 

 

 You make a lot of valid points. However, it is  extremely unlikely that Mike makes any attempt to extend anybody. He is certainly not going to try and extend someone as careless as Villar. He is also turning 29 in May and just had his career year and it is doubtful he will repeat it.

I think there’s no dilemma at all here. He’s a useful player, if he’s not traded during the off-season, he will play with us until the Deadline, and he will either be traded then or remain with us through the rest of the year. No problem at all.

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

No reason not to keep him as long as he has positive value and isn't blocking anyone. Trade him if he gets a good offer, otherwise tender him and then trade him.  I don't see much of a dilemma at all.

I'd almost forgotten that people had been discussing non-tendering him.  With him putting in about a four-win season that seems silly.  He has quite a bit of positive value.  You could trade him for something, even if it's not a haul.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

No reason not to keep him as long as he has positive value and isn't blocking anyone. Trade him if he gets a good offer, otherwise tender him and then trade him.  I don't see much of a dilemma at all.

Cost could be a factor.

[Philip]

32 minutes ago, atomic said:

4 to 5 position players if you trade Villar.  

On the other hand we have five first basemen...