How long before Elias promotes the young starters at AAA?

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

OK, opinions may vary.  But Mancini's experience and arm there probably makes him better defensively at 1B than Mountcastle.  That is my guess.

Guess being the operative word.    My guess is that Mancini might be slightly better right now because he has a lot of experience at the position, but that over time Mountcastle probably would be better because he’s the more athletic of the two.   And while arm isn’t completely irrelevant at 1B, it’s certainly of the least relevance to 1B than any other position on the field.    

[theocean]

55 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So if he O's were 8th in the AL in runs in the 2nd half and they add Hays and Mountcastle they should probably be higher than 7th which average.    Just saying'.

I think a team with an average offense can compete if they have good pitching. That being said, even if the O's had all the money in the world, I can't see how they could turn around their pitching staff by next year. They're really far off on that side of things.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I don’t assume that the second half is more important than the first half in predicting 2020 performance.    And, they had Hays for a good chunk of September when they finished 9th.   Overall, the offense is much better than the pitching but my mid-case projection would have them as a somewhat below average offensive team in 2020, assuming that the team stands pat and doesn’t trade Villar, Mancini etc.  That’s not to say they couldn’t surprise and finish average or slightly better, but that’s not the most likely scenario IMO.    A lot would have to go right, and of course, I hope it does.   

Sounds like you have a poorer opinion of Hays and Mountcastle's offense than I do.     Having Hays for a year instead of a month  has to be a big plus.  Mouthcastle is described as a major league ready hitter.    He did better than Hays at AAA.    Having the two of them are bound to help the O's have a better offense next season.

[mdbdotcom]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Sounds like you have a poorer opinion of Hays and Mountcastle's offense than I do.     Having Hays for a year instead of a month  has to be a big plus.  Mouthcastle is described as a major league ready hitter.    He did better than Hays at AAA.    Having the two of them are bound to help the O's have a better offense next season.

Until you subtract Mancini and Villar, both of whom should be gone before spring training.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Sounds like you have a poorer opinion of Hays and Mountcastle's offense than I do.     Having Hays for a year instead of a month  has to be a big plus.  Mouthcastle is described as a major league ready hitter.    He did better than Hays at AAA.    Having the two of them are bound to help the O's have a better offense next season.

I'm not as worried about injury prone players as some but I do wonder how much of a full season Hays can put up.

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Guess being the operative word.    My guess is that Mancini might be slightly better right now because he has a lot of experience at the position, but that over time Mountcastle probably would be better because he’s the more athletic of the two.   And while arm isn’t completely irrelevant at 1B, it’s certainly of the least relevance to 1B than any other position on the field.    

So how long does it take for Mountcastle to get the experience to be better defensively  than Mancini at first.?  I can accept the Mountcastle could be better in time but how long?   3 months? A season?   I don't even know how good Mountcastle's footwork is around the 1B bag.  Does he know how far he can be off the bag and still make the play.  Is he good with leading the pitcher on throws.  Can he turn a double play by throwing the 2nd?   Does he know when to charge  a ball?   Is he good with the angles on a pop up in foul ground.

I have seen Mancini do all that.  

If you are saying that Mountcastle could be better defensively at 1B in 2021,  I can believer that.   But 2020 is a big question mark IMO.

The other element is Hyde likes to play players all over.  Which means Mountcastle probably play 1B/LF/DH.   So he doesn't get a full season anywhere.

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Until you subtract Mancini and Villar, both of whom should be gone before spring training.

I already agreed with you.  That could  happen but maybe it doesn't.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

So how long does it take for Mountcastle to get the experience to be better defensively  than Mancini at first.?  I can accept the Mountcastle could be better in time but how long?   3 months? A season?   I don't even know how good Mountcastle's footwork is around the 1B bag.  Does he know how far he can be off the bag and still make the play.  Is he good with leading the pitcher on throws.  Can he turn a double play by throwing the 2nd?   Does he know when to charge  a ball?   Is he good with the angles on a pop up in foul ground.

I have seen Mancini do all that.  

If you are saying that Mountcastle could be better defensively at 1B in 2021,  I can believer that.   But 2020 is a big question mark IMO.

The other element is Hyde likes to play players all over.  Which means Mountcastle probably play 1B/LF/DH.   So he doesn't get a full season anywhere.

In the grand scheme of things does it make a difference? 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

2 hours ago, Aglets said:

hi have you met wildcard?   

The board needs him probably to help level out the rest of us.

Him and his 5 threads per day on any and every thing. Waiting for "Should Elias switch from 'David's Sunflower Seeds' to 'Bigs'?" thread.

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not as worried about injury prone players as some but I do wonder how much of a full season Hays can put up.

Yes.  Its a worry.   One of the reasons I am putting Williams on the 40 man roster ahead of Smith. And Williams ahead of Stewart on the 25 man roster.    But Williams is no healthy Hays though..  And Mullins and McKenna are not ready.

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

In the grand scheme of things does it make a difference? 

That is what I am trying to discuss in the this thread.   Can Elias find 4th and 5th starters that holds down the fort until the AAA starter are ready for the majors?   How good will the AAA starters be when they arrive?    Can Elias add a few arms to the pen that stabilizes it?   Its possible he could.   There are some good relievers on the team if they are put in the right roles and additions are added.

If the pitching can get better, the offensive could develop into a wild card team offensive.

I think the team is ahead on where Elias thought it would be.   The low cost guys he adds could make a difference.

This evaluation of where the team is will make a difference in who Elias trades and when.  

All this is part of the discussion this off season.

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Him and his 5 threads per day on any and every thing. Waiting for "Should Elias switch from 'David's Sunflower Seeds' to 'Bigs'?" thread.

I might average one thread a day and for as long as I have been on the OH I don't have near the posts of Frobby, Corn and others.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

That is what I am trying to discuss in the this thread.   Can Elias find 4th and 5th starters that holds down the fort until the AAA starter are ready for the majors?   How good will the AAA starters be when they arrive?    Can Elias add a few arms to the pen that stabilizes it?   Its possible he could.   There are some good relievers on the team if they are put in the right roles and additions are added.

If the pitching can get better, the offensive could develop into a wild card team offensive.

I think the team is ahead on where Elias thought it would be.   The low cost guys he adds could make a difference.

This evaluation of where the team is will make a difference in who Elias trades and when.  

All this is part of the discussion this off season.

I meant if Mountcastle's defense is slightly worse than Mancini's defense in the 2020 season does it make a difference?

Not sure how you got pitching out of that.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So how long does it take for Mountcastle to get the experience to be better defensively  than Mancini at first.?  I can accept the Mountcastle could be better in time but how long?   3 months? A season?   I don't even know how good Mountcastle's footwork is around the 1B bag.  Does he know how far he can be off the bag and still make the play.  Is he good with leading the pitcher on throws.  Can he turn a double play by throwing the 2nd?   Does he know when to charge  a ball?   Is he good with the angles on a pop up in foul ground.

I have seen Mancini do all that.  

If you are saying that Mountcastle could be better defensively at 1B in 2021,  I can believer that.   But 2020 is a big question mark IMO.

The other element is Hyde likes to play players all over.  Which means Mountcastle probably play 1B/LF/DH.   So he doesn't get a full season anywhere.

Yes, I had a longer time frame in mind.    A year or more.   
 

By the way, I really don’t have a firm handle on how good Mancini is at 1B, partially because I’ve watched a lot less baseball the last two years than I traditionally have, and because Mancini has only played 1B in about 25% of the games the last three years.    My overall sense is that he’s gotten a little bit better each year, and has gone from a bit below average to about average.    He might be capable of being somewhat above average if he played 1B exclusively, IMO.

[Frobby]

36 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Sounds like you have a poorer opinion of Hays and Mountcastle's offense than I do.     Having Hays for a year instead of a month  has to be a big plus.  Mouthcastle is described as a major league ready hitter.    He did better than Hays at AAA.    Having the two of them are bound to help the O's have a better offense next season.

What would you predict for each of them in 2020, as your mid-case?

Hays — I’ll go with .275/.325/.460.

Mountcastle — I’ll say .275/.315/.460.    
 

So combined, .275/.320/.460.