Calling Elias incompetent is unfair

[JanJaap]

Did I get this right, Villar is traded? Makes me chuckle after reading time after time by some that Elias can do nothing good and he will let him walk. 

 

It will be a long hard time the coming years to watch the O's but I have all the faith in Elias that he will make us a force to be record with again. 

[Luke-OH]

12 minutes ago, JanJaap said:

Did I get this right, Villar is traded? Makes me chuckle after reading time after time by some that Elias can do nothing good and he will let him walk. 

 

It will be a long hard time the coming years to watch the O's but I have all the faith in Elias that he will make us a force to be record with again. 

I don’t think it’ll do much to tamp down the main thing people are mad about which is hurting the on-field product to further reduce payroll below what already a low payroll number. 

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I don’t think it’ll do much to tamp down the main thing people are mad about which is hurting the on-field product to further reduce payroll below what already a low payroll number. 

Elias probably finished subtracting.   Now its time to add.

[drjohnnyfeva]

On 12/1/2019 at 12:03 PM, Roll Tide said:

Ok .....the part time years wouldn't matter because he's a full time player no matter where he goes. I doubt he's going to sign somewhere that he has not the start. I keep seeing  the Reds or Phillies to be their leadoff man.

The money is only an issue if you don't consider the 80-100 million that they've already cut is enough. The payroll would be almost not for bad luck with Cobb and Davis' which can only be blamed on Peter for negotiationing against himself. We've discussed at nausea the national and MASN tv right share covering a 150-160 million dollar payroll. I used 110 plus 60 million (National Share + MASN) in the past (published numbers) but want to avoid another lengthy discussion about it. And I don't believe that takes into account the additional money that they got /will get for being a low revenue team. 

I agree ... if you read my other posts criticizing Elias

He played card 1 just after the deadline "Felt no pressure to deal as he had no pending free agents"

and Card 2  (Interview with the Baltimore Sun) "Not payout Villar 10 million to pay on a team he wants /hopes/ or will lose 100 games.

Do you think Card 2 helped Villar's trade value? 

I think Card #1 is more accurate.  You don't really have to deal when you have a losing team...  And that plays into Card #2 which is not really different than Card #1 by that much in our situation.  That's 10 Million that I'm sure Elias feels he can better utilize than paying a player (he might like- and I think he does - he's an Astros pick). 

I look at it this way.  Villar despite our disagreement about full-time play, has never really garnered "enthusiasm" in the full-time roles he's had.  Look at Milwaukee... he was on the verge of being benched in a 3-way rotation.

He has a great year, earns a good paycheck, no doubt.  Is it possible that Elias tried to do him a solid and find a trade partner where he'd at least be utilized knowing all along they would never offer him what he was due, try to get a decent return on him in the process, while trying to allow Jonathan to potentially flourish on a team that might compete?  When there were no suitors, I think the die was cast.  They were never going to spend 10 Million on the guy.  Period.

"Sorry Jonathan.  We tried to do something good for both of us, but you'll have to go it alone."  is what I think the result of no suitors in trade talks was and then waiving him.  I don't think it was incompetence by any stretch.  The chips fell that way.

[drjohnnyfeva]

On 12/1/2019 at 8:26 PM, Can_of_corn said:

Because you wouldn't have to compete for his services.  This way you could pay a nominal fee in prospects to insure he's playing for you.  Like Oakland did with Jim Johnson.

...but this is assuming a team values him at the 10M price tag...  Clearly they don't as he still hasn't signed as a FA.

I get what you're saying and I agree, generally.  But Jonathan, as much as we all liked him on our lackluster team, is not a highly sought after guy.  Teams are looking to fill his role with guys they are developing or at a cheaper price point.  This is why Milwaukee sent us him and not one of the other two guys they had in the rotation when they were trying to find their infield before trading for Schoop.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

...but this is assuming a team values him at the 10M price tag...  Clearly they don't as he still hasn't signed as a FA.

I get what you're saying and I agree, generally.  But Jonathan, as much as we all liked him on our lackluster team, is not a highly sought after guy.  Teams are looking to fill his role with guys they are developing or at a cheaper price point.  This is why Milwaukee sent us him and not one of the other two guys they had in the rotation when they were trying to find their infield before trading for Schoop.

They didn’t want to take on Schoop’s salary and be paying Villar at the same time, when he wasn’t going to play.    Shaw was hitting better and making the minimum.     

Simple fact is, Villar played better for us than he did for Milwaukee in 2017-18.
 

[Roll Tide]

47 minutes ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

I think Card #1 is more accurate.  You don't really have to deal when you have a losing team...  And that plays into Card #2 which is not really different than Card #1 by that much in our situation.  That's 10 Million that I'm sure Elias feels he can better utilize than paying a player (he might like- and I think he does - he's an Astros pick). 

I look at it this way.  Villar despite our disagreement about full-time play, has never really garnered "enthusiasm" in the full-time roles he's had.  Look at Milwaukee... he was on the verge of being benched in a 3-way rotation.

He has a great year, earns a good paycheck, no doubt.  Is it possible that Elias tried to do him a solid and find a trade partner where he'd at least be utilized knowing all along they would never offer him what he was due, try to get a decent return on him in the process, while trying to allow Jonathan to potentially flourish on a team that might compete?  When there were no suitors, I think the die was cast.  They were never going to spend 10 Million on the guy.  Period.

"Sorry Jonathan.  We tried to do something good for both of us, but you'll have to go it alone."  is what I think the result of no suitors in trade talks was and then waiving him.  I don't think it was incompetence by any stretch.  The chips fell that way.

So I think you are pretty close on this.

Villar was a 3.9 WAR player in 2016. He had a bad year in 2017 (.1). I assume the was where he was almost benched from the 3 Way, 1.4 Brewers and 1.3 Orioles =2.7 In 2018 and 4.0 in 2019. 
 

Perhaps he’s not good at being a part time player. I’ve known a lot of guys that aren’t any good at watching 2,3,4 days per week. Some guts really struggle at DH due to not playing in the field.

The reason for the .1 WAR ? Sophomore Jinx? I have no idea.

 

 H

[drjohnnyfeva]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

They didn’t want to take on Schoop’s salary and be paying Villar at the same time, when he wasn’t going to play.    Shaw was hitting better and making the minimum.     

Simple fact is, Villar played better for us than he did for Milwaukee in 2017-18.
 

...but it's why he was expendable, is my point.  He was the most expensive of the modest rotation they had going.  So they traded for a guy to deliver more at a higher price point while off-loading their most expensive player in their rotation.  It's simple math.

[drjohnnyfeva]

21 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So I think you are pretty close on this.

Villar was a 3.9 WAR player in 2016. He had a bad year in 2017 (.1). I assume the was where he was almost benched from the 3 Way, 1.4 Brewers and 1.3 Orioles =2.7 In 2018 and 4.0 in 2019. 
 

Perhaps he’s not good at being a part time player. I’ve known a lot of guys that aren’t any good at watching 2,3,4 days per week. Some guts really struggle at DH due to not playing in the field.

The reason for the .1 WAR ? Sophomore Jinx? I have no idea.

 

 H

...but the point here is there are guys who are coming up on all teams and available veterans (like Villar) that might deliver those kinds of WAR numbers where the team wouldn't have to pay 10 Million/yr for the numbers.  He's priced out of the market at that amount.  Ryan Flaherty is available... I jest, yet, as much as I like Jonathan the only guy paying him the calibrated paycheck is Peter Angelos of old because, "...well, the fans seem to like him and he may get some asses in the seats."

Thank god those days are over!  At least I hope.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

...but the point here is there are guys who are coming up on all teams and available veterans (like Villar) that might deliver those kinds of WAR numbers where the team wouldn't have to pay 10 Million/yr for the numbers.  He's priced out of the market at that amount.  Ryan Flaherty is available... I jest, yet, as much as I like Jonathan the only guy paying him the calibrated paycheck is Peter Angelos of old because, "...well, the fans seem to like him and he may get some asses in the seats."

Thank god those days are over!  At least I hope.

Flaherty isn't available.

[Roll Tide]

35 minutes ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

...but the point here is there are guys who are coming up on all teams and available veterans (like Villar) that might deliver those kinds of WAR numbers where the team wouldn't have to pay 10 Million/yr for the numbers.  He's priced out of the market at that amount.  Ryan Flaherty is available... I jest, yet, as much as I like Jonathan the only guy paying him the calibrated paycheck is Peter Angelos of old because, "...well, the fans seem to like him and he may get some asses in the seats."

Thank god those days are over!  At least I hope.

Flaherty is a .6 WAR player over seven seasons. So really its apples and Oranges. Look I know Villar was moved over the projected arb number and the fact the the Orioles will be lucky to win 50 games.