Villar Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas

[weams]

3 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

I'm struggling to understand this:

• Tampa Bay traded outfielder Tommy Pham (and a middling AAA prospect named Jake Cronenworth) to the Padres for Hunter Renfroe, as well as touted middle-infield prospect Xavier Edwards (Keith Law has him rated 46th overall in MLB)and a PTBNL. 

So, how much better is 31-year old Tommy Pham than Villar? He plays a different position, but still... I wouldn't think Pham is a more valuable commodity v. Villar.

We got virtually nothing in return for Villar, yet the Rays seemed to have made out quite well. Pham is being paid 8.6 million this coming season... and will go to Arb 3 in 2021 before heading to FA. So the money would appear similar for 2020.  I may be looking at this wrong, but it seems to me that the Padres overpaid or we were shorted. 

You must be using WAR again. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

I'm struggling to understand this:

• Tampa Bay traded outfielder Tommy Pham (and a middling AAA prospect named Jake Cronenworth) to the Padres for Hunter Renfroe, as well as touted middle-infield prospect Xavier Edwards (Keith Law has him rated 46th overall in MLB)and a PTBNL. 

So, how much better is 31-year old Tommy Pham than Villar? He plays a different position, but still... I wouldn't think Pham is a more valuable commodity v. Villar.

We got virtually nothing in return for Villar, yet the Rays seemed to have made out quite well. Pham is being paid 8.6 million this coming season... and will go to Arb 3 in 2021 before heading to FA. So the money would appear similar for 2020.  I may be looking at this wrong, but it seems to me that the Padres overpaid or we were shorted. 

You see what Snell said on Twitch? 

[Greg Pappas]

Just now, weams said:

You must be using WAR again. 

I didn't reference WAR because I never looked it up. I'm aware of WAR and other analytic stats, but don't reference them all that often. I guess I should pay more attention to it, however.

[Greg Pappas]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

You see what Snell said on Twitch? 

No, but saw the article on ESPN that discussed it.

[Hallas]

4 hours ago, LookinUp said:

End of July you were getting a mid .700's poor fielding 2b/SS. This is a guy who was traded with another piece for Jonathan Schoop.

End of year you're getting a guy whose arb # is $10 million and who had one great month but was otherwise mostly still the mid .700's average at best fielding middle infielder. 

I seriously think the O's made out big time just by letting him go. We'd be marginally better with him, IMO, at a cost of $10 m. I don't think he'll net a great return at all at this year's deadline, but I guess we'll see.

An average-hitting, average-fielding middle infielder is still above average all other things considered.  That's worth more than 10 million, so the tepid response to his availability os a bit puzzling.  His running is usually a positive, even if he runs himself into outs sometimes.  His stolen-base ability outweighs that by a lot.

[weams]

5 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

I didn't reference WAR because I never looked it up. I'm aware of WAR and other analytic stats, but don't reference them all that often. I guess I should pay more attention to it, however.

No. I just meant Pham is a much better player than Villar and a two year get as well. 

[Greg Pappas]

I should have spent more time reviewing Pham's career. While he is two-years older than Villar, he has been a very good and consistent good player over his 6-year career. Even so, the difference in the returns the Rays and O's got seems skewed to me.

[weams]

14 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

I didn't reference WAR because I never looked it up. I'm aware of WAR and other analytic stats, but don't reference them all that often. I guess I should pay more attention to it, however.

The defensive metrics in WAR have currently made it an antiquated way to evaluate relative worth of players. Teams have access to much more specific and accurate ways of measure. Which makes us mad because we can't arm chair like when everyone was dumber. 

[DirtyBird]

Easton Lucas is a stud. We stole this deal.

[weams]

4 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Easton Lucas is a stud. We stole this deal.

We certainly can't say that until he goes John Means. 

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, Greg Pappas said:

I'm struggling to understand this:

• Tampa Bay traded outfielder Tommy Pham (and a middling AAA prospect named Jake Cronenworth) to the Padres for Hunter Renfroe, as well as touted middle-infield prospect Xavier Edwards (Keith Law has him rated 46th overall in MLB)and a PTBNL. 

So, how much better is 31-year old Tommy Pham than Villar? He plays a different position, but still... I wouldn't think Pham is a more valuable commodity v. Villar.

We got virtually nothing in return for Villar, yet the Rays seemed to have made out quite well. Pham is being paid 8.6 million this coming season... and will go to Arb 3 in 2021 before heading to FA. So the money would appear similar for 2020.  I may be looking at this wrong, but it seems to me that the Padres overpaid or we were shorted. 

Well, let's look at Steamer projections. Villar is projected for 1.8 WAR in 2020, Pham is projected for 3.6 WAR. Using a flawed linear $/WAR calculation (best I have at the moment) and arbitration predictions.

Villar has 4M in surplus value (he obviously didn't have quite that much, by the available return)

Pham  has 32M in surplus value using the exact same calculation. (assuming the 8.6M arb salary for 2020 and a raise to 13M in 2021, with a .5 WAR loss to aging)

According to Fangraphs prospect valuation and grade, Edwards is worth 28M.

Hunter Renfroe projects for .7 WAR in 2020, but is controllable through 2023. If he doesn't improve his defense or contact issues and keeps hitting HRs, he'll probably be a non-tender candidate in a year or two. As a former touted prospect there is probably a chance for some untapped upside. 

Jake Croneworth isn't a big name prospect, but he statistically is very interesting, he projects to 1.5 WAR for 2020 (which is really good for someone with no MLB track record). 

So if anything, I'd say the Padres got the better of this deal.

It's a bet by the Padres that Edwards isn't a star because he doesn't have any power and the Renfroe is what he is. Both those things seem like good bets to me, plus they get a bat control SS, who even if he doesn't have everyday upside, can throw in the upper 90s with a hook out of the pen and if pretty much a perfect 26th man on the roster type, a true two-way talent. 

 

[Roll Tide]

9 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Well, let's look at Steamer projections. Villar is projected for 1.8 WAR in 2020, Pham is projected for 3.6 WAR. Using a flawed linear $/WAR calculation (best I have at the moment) and arbitration predictions.

Villar has 4M in surplus value (he obviously didn't have quite that much, by the available return)

Pham  has 32M in surplus value using the exact same calculation. (assuming the 8.6M arb salary for 2020 and a raise to 13M in 2021, with a .5 WAR loss to aging)

According to Fangraphs prospect valuation and grade, Edwards is worth 28M.

Hunter Renfroe projects for .7 WAR in 2020, but is controllable through 2023. If he doesn't improve his defense or contact issues and keeps hitting HRs, he'll probably be a non-tender candidate in a year or two. As a former touted prospect there is probably a chance for some untapped upside. 

Jake Croneworth isn't a big name prospect, but he statistically is very interesting, he projects to 1.5 WAR for 2020 (which is really good for someone with no MLB track record). 

So if anything, I'd say the Padres got the better of this deal.

It's a bet by the Padres that Edwards isn't a star because he doesn't have any power and the Renfroe is what he is. Both those things seem like good bets to me, plus they get a bat control SS, who even if he doesn't have everyday upside, can throw in the upside 90s with a hook out of the pen and if pretty much a perfect 26th man on the roster type, a true two-way talent. 

 

A couple of other points Pham just played his age 31 season Versus Villar's age 29. Their WAR the last 2 seasons combined Pham 6.3 vs Villar 6.7. They both had WARs below 1 win 3 seasons ago ..... I don't know anything about Steamer projections ....But they are basically the same player the past 2 years.

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

A couple of other points Pham just played his age 31 season Versus Villar's age 29. Their WAR the last 2 seasons combined Pham 6.3 vs Villar 6.7. They both had WARs below 1 win 3 seasons ago ..... I don't know anything about Steamer projections ....But they are basically the same player the past 2 years.

Those projections take all of that into consideration. 

I'm using fWAR because the projection I'm quoting does the same.

Over the last 2 years by fWAR, Villar was worth 6 WAR and Pham was worth 7.4 WAR, over the last 3 years the difference is more stark, with Villar at 5.6 WAR and Pham at 13.6 WAR. 

Basically, you have Villar who is a career 97 wRC+ hitter and Pham who is a career 129 wRC+ hitter. Is it possible for baserunning and defense to make up that difference? Yes, in 2019 it did. But as I laid out in an earlier post, Villar's 2019 season was a perfect storm of career best power output, career best defensive numbers at SS, career best baserunning, career best PAs. If you just regress all those career bests, that gets you most of the way down to the 1.8 WAR projection. Pham on the other hand under performed his career profile in 2019, some of that may be aging, but the projection thinks that regression toward career numbers (or recent career numbers) is going to be a stronger force than age related decline in 2020. 

 

[Luke-OH]

I don't really want to rehash the Villar thing, it's already been overdone IMO.  I think the return he got is evidence enough that teams valued him pretty close to the 1.8 WAR projection. 

[UMDTerrapins]

2 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

I'm struggling to understand this:

• Tampa Bay traded outfielder Tommy Pham (and a middling AAA prospect named Jake Cronenworth) to the Padres for Hunter Renfroe, as well as touted middle-infield prospect Xavier Edwards (Keith Law has him rated 46th overall in MLB)and a PTBNL. 

So, how much better is 31-year old Tommy Pham than Villar? He plays a different position, but still... I wouldn't think Pham is a more valuable commodity v. Villar.

We got virtually nothing in return for Villar, yet the Rays seemed to have made out quite well. Pham is being paid 8.6 million this coming season... and will go to Arb 3 in 2021 before heading to FA. So the money would appear similar for 2020.  I may be looking at this wrong, but it seems to me that the Padres overpaid or we were shorted. 

Edwards was clearly available. I’ll assume we kicked the tires and couldn’t make it work. He would have been a guy I’d be happy to get as we shed our few traceable parts.