Millar wants to return

[osfan83]

Vintage JTrea!!!!!!!

He's not too far out on this one. If our team prez, who is in charge of a team with 11 staright losing seasons (barring a great Sept this year) re-signs a 37 year old below league average 1b, to start for us, 2 years after the so called rebuilding was to begin...well I not sure AM is doing his job if that becomes the case.

[osfan83]

How many people here believe that Huff and Mora will have the same or better offensive years in 2009 as this year?

[Lurker Todd]

Count me amongst the "Bring Millar Back" crowd.

[JGuthrie46]

I'd rather have Millar in as a bench coach, rather than him taking up a lineup card, I like the guy but we could use someone else at his spot, especially since we're rebuilding. Use his enthusiasm at bench coaching.

[jeffstonefan]

Kevin Millar, the next Jeff Conine/BJ Surhoff. Fan/Manager favorite. Another season settling for mediocrity.

[AnythingO's]

Is Millar's clubhouse presence worth giving him a roster spot over a roughly equivalent on-field player 12 or 13 years his junior?

I think the answer depends on what else happens. If we get Tex then Huff is DH and they will get about 1150 ABs combined out of maybe 1250 total. Huff could spell Mora for another 100 ABs so about 200 ABs would be available at 1B/DH. They would be better spent on Reimold/Montanez, along with whatever that player would get as 4th OF, as they might have a real future with the O's, so no Millar. If we got Dunn at DH and Huff at 1B I think the available ABs increase to 250 (Dunn<Tex)and you would consider Moore/Salazar for those ABs. The question then becomes who is likely to give you better production in those limited ABs, one of the rookies with limited upside or Millar? I think DT would opt for the vet in that case even though we don't know how Millar would perform in a limited role or if he would be even willing. Now if somehow we could pull McPherson then you might keep Millar to ease the transition and look to move Millar at the deadline. If Reimold/Montanez win LF/4th OF roles in ST then Scott shifts to DH, so no Millar. Give the extra ABs to 4th OF/util IF. IMO there are a few scenarios where Millar might make sense in a limited role but if he is our defacto starter next year then AM will have failed to improve the O's.

[cindyluvsbrady]

How many people here believe that Huff and Mora will have the same or better offensive years in 2009 as this year?

I know My Melvin will!:clap3:

[Frobby]

Millar is 21st among 1B with 150+ PAs in VORP, somewhere similar in EQA. He's 17th in +/- as a defender at -3, and that's his best ranking in at least three years. His triple-slash line is .247/.339/.419.

Scott Moore's translated (i.e. Major League Equivalent) line at Norfolk is .242/.311/.412.

Is Millar's clubhouse presence worth giving him a roster spot over a roughly equivalent on-field player 12 or 13 years his junior?

Moore at Norfolk is hitting .248 .317 .409 726. So essentially there is no difference between hitting for Norfolk and hittng for the O's?

Because Norfolk is such an extreme pitchers' park, these MLE's often show very little deterioration in stats. But I question whether that really applies to guys like Moore and Costanzo who have very high K rates. A K is a K regardless of what stadium you play in. (More or less; I know that park factors like how much foul territory there is can, in fact, influence K rate.)

Personally, I don't think Moore is ever going to amount to anything much, so I'd be OK with Millar keeping the spot over Moore in light of what he brings to the clubhouse.

[DrungoHazewood]

Moore at Norfolk is hitting .248 .317 .409 726. So essentially there is no difference between hitting for Norfolk and hittng for the O's?

That's correct. The extreme park effects in Norfolk are almost exactly offset by the lower quality of play, so you can expect a player to hit similarly in Norfolk and Baltimore. Of course that means a pitcher getting called up can expect to see at least a couple runs tacked onto his ERA.

[DrungoHazewood]

Because Norfolk is such an extreme pitchers' park, these MLE's often show very little deterioration in stats. But I question whether that really applies to guys like Moore and Costanzo who have very high K rates. A K is a K regardless of what stadium you play in. (More or less; I know that park factors like how much foul territory there is can, in fact, influence K rate.)

They're also players with relatively high isolated power numbers, which are absolutely crushed by Harbor Park.

[Mackus]

That's correct. The extreme park effects in Norfolk are almost exactly offset by the lower quality of play, so you can expect a player to hit similarly in Norfolk and Baltimore. Of course that means a pitcher getting called up can expect to see at least a couple runs tacked onto his ERA.

I don't think I buy into the minor league translations as being very useful for individual players.

I can see how a group of players who play at AAA and then move to MLB would as a group have stats that are generally reliable in terms of translations, but I think the system breaks down for individuals.

I think scouting is probably more useful than stats when figuring out which minor leaguers will be able to successfully make the jump from AAA to MLB (or A+ to AA or whatever jump).

I think MLE's are something that probably work a whole lot better on a macro level than on a micro level.

[bluedog]

Millar is 21st among 1B with 150+ PAs in VORP, somewhere similar in EQA. He's 17th in +/- as a defender at -3, and that's his best ranking in at least three years. His triple-slash line is .247/.339/.419.

Scott Moore's translated (i.e. Major League Equivalent) line at Norfolk is .242/.311/.412.

Is Millar's clubhouse presence worth giving him a roster spot over a roughly equivalent on-field player 12 or 13 years his junior?

Do you not feel that Huff is going to be used at 1b in the event we fail to sign Tex? All signs point to Huff being the O's backup plan at 1st.

And in that case, we're not looking at replacing Millar with Scott Moore or another corner infielder, but we're talking about replacing Huff at DH - which allows us to use the best hitter available to replace Millar instead of a below average bat like Moore.

Maybe we lose a bit of defense at first, but it opens up the possbility of a significant upgrade in the lineup over Millars bat.

[bluedog]

They're also players with relatively high isolated power numbers, which are absolutely crushed by Harbor Park.

Given this, why no love for Oscar Salazar? The dude may be 30, but he's got 40+ doubles, destroys lefties and could hit 20+ home runs in OPACY after escaping Norfolk. And he strikes out at a very reasonable pace. He looks like a younger Kevin Millar that hits for a higher average and costs a fraction.

[bluedog]

How do you figure that DCab is a #4 in a competitive rotation.

DiceK 15-2, 2.77

Lester 12-4, 3.17

Beckett 11-9, 4.34

Wakefield 7-8, 3.67

Masterson 4-3, 3.34

Byrd 7-11, 4.55

Kazmir 9-6, 3.21

Shield 11-7, 3.68

Garza 9-7, 3.71

Jackson 9-8, 3.97

Sonnanstine 13-6, 4.37

DCab 8-8, 4.98

DCab would be lucky to be a #6 in a five man competitve rotation.

In my book he's a reasonable option at #5 in a rotation. Anything above that is asking too much of him. He's certainly not a great option at #5, but he should be able to win as many as he loses, which is generally the goal that deep in the rotation.

[Echoes]

The 4/5 of a rotation I agree with. I think the O's may find out the Johnson is next years closer.

The position players represent the offense which is playoff caliber.

The question is how do the O's get three more starters without hurting the offense. Scott, Ramon, Sherrill and DCab could all be trading chips. Montanez will try to prove he can take over left. Wieters' in line for catcher. Johnson maybe next year closer. DCab could use a change of uniform.

There may be ways this team can improve next year. Let's see what MacPhail can do.

I'm optimistic about MacPhail, I think he's done a great job so far. But I just don't like the attitude that they should just stay the course and that the club only needs slight alterations to get the job done. I just don't see it that way. When you basically need an entire starting rotation other than Guthrie, you've got serious issues in terms of contending for the playoffs and a possible WS. I don't think Scott is the long term option at LF, so I'd like to see Reimhold move up and get some experience in the bigs. And the other guys I mentioned earlier don't have a place on this team if its to be a legit competitor in the AL.

I know I'm pretty negative on here when I post, it's just that I can't help but care about this team as passionately as I do, even though I don't want to sometimes. And I get frustrated with a lot of the talk on here... I think that we've become so used to losing and the concept of getting back to .500 and what have you that sometimes we lose sight of the big picture. But I can't help but keep the big picture of it all in my head, and it's depressing. And I want to see this team get back to being a real force in the league, and it's not an impossible feat... my God if they can win in Tampa Bay surely it can be done elsewhere. I'm tired of this team being an also ran, or not taken seriously by anyone outside of the hardcore fans. I'm mad that most people outside of fantasy baseball players don't know how good a player Nick Markakis is, or don't know how fine a pitcher Jeremy Guthrie is, and lots of other examples of that. I just want this team to be a winner so much that I get easily angry and frustrated just thinking about it.

But I think they're on the right track, and as this board is clear evidence to, the support for the O's is still surprisingly strong given what this organization has put it fans through the last decade. The fire still burns, you know? I just want them to quit being wishy-washy over it and do whatever it takes to make this team a contender again.