Who Are Your Top Three Rule 5 Targets?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

You said "not worth the effort". He is a viable MLB piece that we poached from another organization. His AB's did not block anyone or cost any meaningful games. He is absolutely worth every penny we didn't pay to get him.

They did pay to get him.

Other avenues existed if the O's were that interested in Santander.  Do you think he was untouchable in trade talks?

[Beef Supreme]

@Luke-OH

I read your in-depth analysis of the Rule 5 draft players. I am guessing that some on this board may think that you believe the Tigers will/should draft Palacios. And that the Orioles will/should draft Palacios if available or Charles if Palacios is taken. Should that be our takeaway or is your analysis more general? In other words, are there two players other than Palacios and Charles that you think the Orioles will take? Or two players other than Palacios and Charles that you think the Orioles should take, considering their specific situation?

[Luke-OH]

20 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

@Luke-OH

I read your in-depth analysis of the Rule 5 draft players. I am guessing that some on this board may think that you believe the Tigers will/should draft Palacios. And that the Orioles will/should draft Palacios if available or Charles if Palacios is taken. Should that be our takeaway or is your analysis more general? In other words, are there two players other than Palacios and Charles that you think the Orioles will take? Or two players other than Palacios and Charles that you think the Orioles should take, considering their specific situation?

Well they’ve hinted that they are looking at starting pitching. 

Fuentes, Sharp, and Rijo don’t really fit the profile of pitchers the Orioles have targeted under Elias. That doesn’t mean they won’t take them, but I think it’s less likely.

Newsome checks a few boxes from a pure statistical standpoint.

It’s hard to pinpoint who they’d target to start, I doubt they have evaluated Bailey as a starter. 

Maybe they want to get Brown to drop his 2S. Or aren’t afraid to grab a starter without much AA time in Ian McKinney. Misiewicz would be another option if they want to go safer.

Buddy Reed fits the need for a pure CF guy to give depth behind Hays. 

Fermin makes sense in terms of adding quality to the middle infielder org depth. Yonny Hernandez too but I doubt people are as high on him, I think he’s just a personal favorite. 

I know with Orioles prospects the philosophy is you have to graduate each level in the minors.

If they stick to that, it limits things to Tom, Rojas, Megill, Clay (I’m assuming there is no fit for Nogowski) and a few others. That’s the best chance for 2020 value, but limits the potential for long term value.

[Luke-OH]

There are lots of relief fits, just depends on how they have those players evaluated.

I’m sure those boards vary drastically between teams.

[Roll Tide]

On 12/10/2019 at 4:26 PM, ScGO's said:

I'm all about drafting and stashing, but its much harder to do with Davis on the roster, even with the 26th man.   I say we go for the MIF prospects being mentioned.  I'm not so sure about Sharpe.  With only 31 on the roster, why wouldn't Washington give him a 40 man?  Somethings got to be up there. 

This is a good point and makes you wonder. With having 9 open slots on their 40 man, you have to wonder why they didn't protect him.

Maybe they don't think he's ready to stick

Maybe with the new pitching rule and him having extreme splits is the reason

[Roll Tide]

Sharp's 2019 against RHBs

 

.322 BA , .391 OBP, .421 SLG and .814 OPS

 

I think it's safe to say we've found the answer

[Luke-OH]

Sharp is this year’s Martin IMO, a solid Rule 5 candidate that people are making out to be more than he is. 

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Sharp is this year’s Martin IMO, a solid Rule 5 candidate that people are making out to be more than he is. 

It sounds like folks are moving away from the "groundball artist" these days. I'm not sure how Elias feels about that, but I know that kind of descriptor usually scares me. You're only a groundball artist until you're not, which is usually when you start pitching at Camden Yards.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

It sounds like folks are moving away from the "groundball artist" these days. I'm not sure how Elias feels about that, but I know that kind of descriptor usually scares me. You're only a groundball artist until you're not, which is usually when you start pitching at Camden Yards.

Elias is a high fastball fan.

You know how you have L/R splits?  The same things happens with ground ball/fly ball.  Ground ball pitchers are more susceptible to launch angle guys.

[Luke-OH]

JJ Cooper is hearing Rony Garcia at pick 1, Brandon Bailey at pick 2.

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, RZNJ said:

When Zach Britton was good, he wasn't susceptible. You are correct but the biggest problem with groundball pitchers is when they leave the ball up they get crushed.  A lot of sinkerballers have armside run which probably accounts for the reverse splits.

Prime Zack was an outlier. 

Guys looking for a higher launch angle are better able to go down and lift the ball, whereas someone with a flat or downward stroke is going to be even more likely to hit it on the ground.  Those same launch angle guys are more likely to pop up a high fastball then someone with a flat or downward stroke.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

JJ Cooper is hearing Rony Garcia at pick 1, Brandon Bailey at pick 2.

 

 

Are they hearing if it is the O's that will be picking at 2?

[Luke-OH]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Are they hearing if it is the O's that will be picking at 2?

No mention of that, but Bailey makes a ton of sense, other than that trying him as a starter is probably a bridge too far.

[sportsfan8703]

34 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

JJ Cooper is hearing Rony Garcia at pick 1, Brandon Bailey at pick 2.

 

 

Bailey seems like a solid pick. Given our rotation situation, his pitch arsenal, and the fact that he’s 25, I’d say he’s got a shot at the rotation. I mean who else?  

[Luke-OH]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

So Bailey was your #7 guy but Garcia didn't make your top 50.  Thoughts on why Garcia #1?

Young guy with a chance to start, I just thought there was a combination of too far from ready and not enough upside. I have a brief note from the video I watched, 

“Low 3/4 delivery, 91-96 as a starter, solid slider, want to see in relief, was 94-96 early before losing velocity and stuff 50 pitches in”

He was one of the last 10 or so cuts. I was put off by his HR prone tendencies. He made half of his starts at Trenton which suppressed HRs to an extreme level. He gave up 2 HR/9 in AA road games (still in a pitcher friendly league).