Who wins the three biggest arbitration cases of 2020?

[Frobby]

On 1/12/2020 at 5:05 PM, Frobby said:

George Springer ($22.5 mm) vs. Astros ($17.5 mm).    Springer has 5.166 years of service time, six days short of free agency. He hit .292/.383/.591 last year, with 39 HR and 96 RBI, good for an OPS+ of 150 and 6.4 rWAR.     For his career, he has an OPS+ of 131 and has been worth 24.6 rWAR.   He made $12 mm last year as part of a 2/$24 mm contract.

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By far the best comp for Springer is Bryce Harper, who also was a heavy Super-2 and earned $21.6 mm in his final Arb year.   Harper had a 156 OPS+,  4.7 rWAR season before that award, and a career 140 OPS+, 26.1 rWAR.     He’d made $13.1 mm the year before.

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Where I come out is that this is a case that should settle somewhere in the middle, but that Harper comp looms large.    Springer has overreached a little, but I think the Astros underreached by more.   If the case goes to a hearing, I think Springer wins.   If it settles, I think he gets north of the midpoint $20 mm.

Springer settles for $21 mm.    I’m one for one!

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/01/astros-george-springer-avoid-arbitration.html

[Frobby]

Owners are 3-0 in arbitration cases so far this year.     I tried to see if the dates of the Hader and Realmuto hearings have been published, but I haven’t seen anything.   

[Frobby]

On 1/14/2020 at 1:11 AM, Frobby said:

I think if Hader had 3+ years of service, he’d win this case.     But there’s a real risk that he loses due to his lack of tenure.   I think the parties should split the baby and be done with it.    Gun to my head, I’ll say the Brewers win if this goes to a hearing, but I’m only like 50.1% confident of that.  

Only 50.1% confident, but 100% correct.   The parties took the case to a hearing and the Brewers won.    

The Realmuto hearing is today and the result should be known tomorrow.    I’m 2 for 2 so far.    
 

[Frobby]

On 1/14/2020 at 9:09 AM, Frobby said:

J.T. Realmuto ($12.4 mm) vs. Phillies ($10.0 mm).   He has 5.038 years of service.   Last year he hit .275/.328/.493 with 25 HR and 83 RBI, good for an OPS+ of 108 and 4.4 rWAR.    In his career he has an OPS+ of 110 and has been worth 17.6 rWAR.    He earned $5.9 mm last year.

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Overall, this is another close case.    It’s pretty rare for a player’s salary to more than double in Arb 3, as Realmuto is asking.    Marcus Semien, who made $5.9 mm last year as Realmuto did, is getting a raise to $13 mm coming off an 8.1 rWAR season in which he finished 3rd in the MVP voting.    Realmuto is asking for almost as big a raise as that, coming off a 4.4 rWAR season.   In the end, if he takes it to a hearing, I think he’ll lose.    But, it’s close enough where both sides should meet somewhere near the middle and put this to bed.

And, I went 3 for 3!   https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28743996/phillies-win-arbitration-case-jt-realmuto%3fplatform=amp

Throw in my correct predictions that both Villar and Mancini would get far less than what MLBTR projected, and I was 5 for 5 on arbitration predictions this winter.    Don’t mess with the Frobster when it comes to arbitration — I’m the Russell Smouse of the interwebs!