Can Rio Ruiz take it up a notch?

[Frobby]

Last year, Rio Ruiz hit .232/.306/.376 on the season, in 370 PA.     He bottomed out at .598 OPS in late June.    He had a .796 OPS thereafter, though he started only 38 of 91 games in that span, after starting 51 of 71 before that.   He was sent to the minors for about two and a half weeks in late July and early August, and hit for much more power when he returned, posting a .255 ISO for the remainder of the season.

Ruiz was used mostly as a platoon player, making 81 of his 93 starts against RHP.    But, his splits weren’t that drastic: .626 in 74 PA vs. LHP, .694 in 339 PA vs. RHP.
 
This will be Ruiz’s age 26 season.    Last year was the first one in which he spent the majority of the year on a big league roster and got fairly regular at bats.    With Alberto likely to play 2B more often with Villar gone, Ruiz has an opportunity to get more playing time at 3B this year if he’s able to seize it.

So, do we think Ruiz has some improvement left in him, or is last year essentially what we’ve got?

I note that ZiPS, Steamer and Marcel all project some modest improvement in OPS: .693, .723 and .705, respectively.    

[interloper]

RIOOOOOOOOOOO

He's my boy.

I think he steps it up enough for the O's to be fine with running him out there sporadically. I think he'll have a career year power-wise, but probably won't get on base a ton. He did lead the team in pitches seen for a good portion of the early part of the season last year. 

I'm trying to think of a comp for him as a hitter. 

[Tony-OH]

Rio Ruiz is what he is in my estimation. He's a below average hitter:

2019 statcast percentile across baseball: (The high the score the better, think 50 percentile as being league average, 0% being worse in the league)
Exit Velocity: 30th 
Hard hit %: 37th
Spring speed: 28th
xwOBA (some believe this is most important): 12th
zBA: 12th
XSLG: 7th

And he also graded out very poorly on defense which surprised me some as I thought he was an average defender.

OOA: 6th (-6 OOA coming in on balls which was his main weakness)
Success rate: -2% across all 3B

If he had a little defensive versatility, I'd like him him in a utility role a little bit, but his slow foot speed really limits him to 3B or 1B. I don't think he brings enough bat for either spot long term. 

[NCRaven]

I don't think either Ruiz or Nunez will be on the next good Orioles team.  Along with about 34 of the current 40 man roster!

[Tony-OH]

49 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I don't think either Ruiz or Nunez will be on the next good Orioles team.  Along with about 34 of the current 40 man roster!

Perhaps, but Nunez still intrigues me. While not a plate discipline guy, he has legitimate power and his xwOBA was right around league average (49th percentile). If he could bring any kind of defensive value he might have some value here at 3B. He was surprisingly awful at 1B last year but in his very limited opportunities he was ok in 3B after being below average in 2018.

Since I think he has an upside where as Ruiz doesn't, I'd start 2020 spring training with Nunez penciled in as my 3B and let him prove to me he can't play there when healthy. 

[bobmc]

44 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Perhaps, but Nunez still intrigues me. While not a plate discipline guy, he has legitimate power and his xwOBA was right around league average (49th percentile). If he could bring any kind of defensive value he might have some value here at 3B. He was surprisingly awful at 1B last year but in his very limited opportunities he was ok in 3B after being below average in 2018.

Since I think he has an upside where as Ruiz doesn't, I'd start 2020 spring training with Nunez penciled in as my 3B and let him prove to me he can't play there when healthy. 

Wow!  Two great takes!  I don't miss @Luke-OH at all!   Well, maybe a little!

[bobmc]

3 hours ago, interloper said:

RIOOOOOOOOOOO

He's my boy.

I think he steps it up enough for the O's to be fine with running him out there sporadically. I think he'll have a career year power-wise, but probably won't get on base a ton. He did lead the team in pitches seen for a good portion of the early part of the season last year. 

I'm trying to think of a comp for him as a hitter. 

If he can just raise that BABIP to over .400 ......  #riobravo 

[Tony-OH]

11 minutes ago, bobmc said:

Wow!  Two great takes!  I don't miss @Luke-OH at all!   Well, maybe a little!

Haha, gotta step up my game. Maybe this old guy still has some value around here! 

[bobmc]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I think he can step it up a bit.   Of course, I don't have a crystal ball.    He has a nice fluid swing and some idea at the plate.   He looks adequate at 3B to me as well.  I certainly would like to seem him take the next step offensively which is basically adding more power which he seemed to do in the second half.    I like Nunez as well.  I agree with Tony on his defense at 3B in 2018 and he did looks surprisingly awful at 1B.    Love the bat when he's hot though.

When he does that one hand bat twirl on the dinger follow through, I gush!  It's better than a Bautista bat flip IMO!  

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Haha, gotta step up my game. Maybe this old guy still has some value around here! 

Honestly, you’ve done an amazing job of incorporating all the new stats into your analysis over the last couple of years.    Bravo to you for not just sitting on your laurels.  

[Ruzious]

I think he's a long-shot at best.  He'd have to tear it up big-time in the minors for half a season to make me think about giving him another MLB chance.  

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I like Nunez as well.  I agree with Tony on his defense at 3B in 2018 and he did looks surprisingly awful at 1B.    Love the bat when he's hot though.

Last year:

Games 1 - 25 .894 OPS

Games 26-44 .263 OPS

Games 45-57 1.432 OPS

Games 58-73 .455 OPS

Games 74-95 1.115 OPS

The rest of the year was just a gentle slope downward with minor peaks and valleys, but the first four months were a real roller coaster for him.

 

 

[Aristotelian]

I dont see any reason to expect a breakout. Eye test says he looks like a ballplayer but then again Larry Bigbie scored high on the eye test. I think Bannon has a higher ceiling now than Rio, not thaf I expect anything from Bannon either.

[oriole]

He’s acceptable for now. I don’t think he will be on the next winning Orioles team. But I see no reason to see why he wouldn’t have the inside track to getting the starting job next year. 

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Last year:

Games 1 - 25 .894 OPS

Games 26-44 .263 OPS

Games 45-57 1.432 OPS

Games 58-73 .455 OPS

Games 74-95 1.115 OPS

The rest of the year was just a gentle slope downward with minor peaks and valleys, but the first four months were a real roller coaster for him.

 

 

He's certainly the definition of a streaky player. He can be an absolute automatic out for significant periods while also being completely dialed in at times. If he could ever find a way to limit the droughts, he could really become a valuable offensive player.