MLB Pipeline: Austin Martin

[Redskins Rick]

14 hours ago, murph said:

Just my two cents, but I didn't think it was an insult either, just respectful playfulness to a well known poster with well known posting traits. 

As for thread, the reading has been great and I think I am leaning mostly to Martin as my preferred choice (or Torkelson if he falls to #2).  Just will be great to see anything baseball related, looking forward to the draft, even truncated as it is.  

Elias doesnt strike me as a guy that doesnt exam all the information available from his scouts and his own eyes.

I am curious to see which one he picks, of course OH might not be in agreement with his pick.

[Redskins Rick]

If you believe Roch, looks like the Birds are back in the drafting Martin camp.

[Frobby]

On 6/2/2020 at 9:48 AM, Moose Milligan said:

It appears to be an overall weak draft.  That there was no spring season this year helps that along.  

It is not supposed to be a weak draft overall.     It’s just that there aren’t 3-5 obviously elite talents at the very top.    But there will probably be very good talent at 30/39 compared to a typical year.   

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

It is not supposed to be a weak draft overall.     It’s just that there aren’t 3-5 obviously elite talents at the very top.    But there will probably be very good talent at 30/39 compared to a typical year.   

Saw a mock draft with us taking Martin and left drafting pitcher Nick Swiney at 30

https://prospects365.com/2020/05/25/ray-butlers-2020-mlb-mock-draft/

[Bradysburns]

On 5/20/2020 at 3:18 PM, wildcard said:

Could you expound on the defensive expectations for Vanderbilt's Austin Martin? I've seen it mentioned that he had throwing issues this spring. Is that a concern going forward? What level of defender does he project to be at third base, second base and/or center field?

-- Ben W., Oxford, Miss.

While no one doubts that Martin will hit, there are questions about where he'll wind up defensively. Scouts had hoped to see him at shortstop this spring, but Vanderbilt went with freshman Carter Young instead. Martin opened the season at third base, didn't look good throwing there during the first weekend and shifted to center field.

Martin has had some arm-related injuries and there are times when he looks tentative making throws, so some clubs do have concerns. He has twitchy athleticism and soft hands, but his arm could limit him at third base. He's more of a solid than a plus runner, so he projects more as an average-to-solid defender in center field and could be better than that at second base.

---------

Not the arm for 3B,   not the speed for CF.  Best position 2B.     I don't want a 2B for the #2 pick.   Just another reason to take Hancock or Lacy.

I've been away for awhile and just coming back to OH. I've missed it. I need to recommit! But I wanted to chime in on Lacy. I am 100% in the Lacy camp after watching several of his YouTube games. The guy just looks like a beast. The delivery is very deceptive-looking, and looks like it would explode on the hitter quickly, etc. He's coming from the left side with pretty much equal heat to Hancock (who apparently LOST some velo before the season shut down). 

Austin Martin seems like a more skilled version of Jerry Hairston to me. I loved Jerry, but he never really reached his potential here, IMO. Austin would be great to have. He was my early pick. But when I dug into the defensive questions -- and I have heard no firm contrary views -- yeesh. It sounds somewhat risky -- other than second base, maybe? 

If he projects as a plus or plus-plus defender there (not likely considering the arm issues), then I'd consider jumping on him still. If not ... Lacy all the way. I know nothing about scouting -- total armchair take -- but he looks special on video. Reminds me a little of Nolan Ryan in terms of his complete body control and one complete throwing motion. Or ... maybe we land Torkelson, who's from my hometown so that'd be good too. 

 

[weams]

 

[weams]

4 minutes ago, weams said:

 

1. Austin Martin, 3B/OF, Vanderbilt, Age on draft day: 21

Martin may not be the first overall pick this year, but he’s the best overall prospect due to his combination of performance, athleticism and all-around quickness. There’s some Javy Báez to his hand speed, although unlike the young Báez, Martin rarely strikes out. We haven’t seen a top college prospect this athletic since George Springer in 2011, although before the draft Springer had the two-strike approach of a turnip. Martin punched out barely 10 percent of the time in 2019, and just twice in 69 plate appearances before baseball shut down in March. . He’s going to end up at a skill position — center, third, second, maybe shortstop if his arm is back to normal — and hit for average with developing power. That’s the kind of probability with upside you want at the first overall pick.

2. Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State, Age: 20

Torkelson hit everyone’s radar in the spring of 2018 when he hit 25 home runs as a freshman to lead all Division I hitters, then hit 7 more on the Cape that summer to finish one off the league lead. Torkelson is extremely strong, hitting for all this power with almost no stride and a two-handed finish that makes his swing almost short by comparison to most power hitters, and while he’s shown some swing-and-miss he’s also been willing to take walks, leading the country this spring before the shutdown. He’s a good enough athlete that he might be able to handle left field, although I’d bet on him spending most of his career at first base.

... but even if he’s a 50 hit/70 power guy in the end, that’s someone who hits fourth and makes a handful of All-Star teams.

3. Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M, Age: 21

Lacy separated himself from the rest of this year’s very strong college pitching...

, showing he could hold 93-94 mph deep into games, touching 98 mph, with a plus changeup and above-average slider. Lacy’s got a great starter’s build and his delivery works, with a big step-over stride and good timing. He works well to both sides of the plate, although his command and control are still inconsistent; the ability to reach back for 97-98 mph is great, but his stuff is good enough that he could just hold 92-93 mph all game and probably throw better strikes. If he’d had a full spring, and kept this up, more people would likely see him as a candidate to go 1-1. If there’s a future No. 1 starter in the class, I think it’s him.

[wildcard]

11 hours ago, weams said:

1. Austin Martin, 3B/OF, Vanderbilt, Age on draft day: 21

Martin may not be the first overall pick this year, but he’s the best overall prospect due to his combination of performance, athleticism and all-around quickness. There’s some Javy Báez to his hand speed, although unlike the young Báez, Martin rarely strikes out. We haven’t seen a top college prospect this athletic since George Springer in 2011, although before the draft Springer had the two-strike approach of a turnip. Martin punched out barely 10 percent of the time in 2019, and just twice in 69 plate appearances before baseball shut down in March. . He’s going to end up at a skill position — center, third, second, maybe shortstop if his arm is back to normal — and hit for average with developing power. That’s the kind of probability with upside you want at the first overall pick.

2. Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State, Age: 20

Torkelson hit everyone’s radar in the spring of 2018 when he hit 25 home runs as a freshman to lead all Division I hitters, then hit 7 more on the Cape that summer to finish one off the league lead. Torkelson is extremely strong, hitting for all this power with almost no stride and a two-handed finish that makes his swing almost short by comparison to most power hitters, and while he’s shown some swing-and-miss he’s also been willing to take walks, leading the country this spring before the shutdown. He’s a good enough athlete that he might be able to handle left field, although I’d bet on him spending most of his career at first base.

... but even if he’s a 50 hit/70 power guy in the end, that’s someone who hits fourth and makes a handful of All-Star teams.

3. Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M, Age: 21

Lacy separated himself from the rest of this year’s very strong college pitching...

, showing he could hold 93-94 mph deep into games, touching 98 mph, with a plus changeup and above-average slider. Lacy’s got a great starter’s build and his delivery works, with a big step-over stride and good timing. He works well to both sides of the plate, although his command and control are still inconsistent; the ability to reach back for 97-98 mph is great, but his stuff is good enough that he could just hold 92-93 mph all game and probably throw better strikes. If he’d had a full spring, and kept this up, more people would likely see him as a candidate to go 1-1. If there’s a future No. 1 starter in the class, I think it’s him.

So any one of the three would benefit the O's.

Martin is the leadoff hitter the O's need.  Though I would like a #2 to have a better arm, more power and/or faster speed, he does fill a hole a 2B with soft, quick hands and good range.   Consistent 100 run scorer in a good lineup. Dustin Pedroia comp.

Lacy would probably be the second best starter in the O's 2023 rotation behind Rodriguez.  Rodriguez, Lacy, Hall and Means would be a  quality rotation. Law says a future #1 if there is one in the class, but there may not be one.

Tork's power would help any lineup.  He would make a powerful middle of the lineup with Rutschman.  Combined with Mountcastle to make a powerful 1B/DH duo.

[hoosiers]

On 6/4/2020 at 10:12 PM, Roll Tide said:

Saw a mock draft with us taking Martin and left drafting pitcher Nick Swiney at 30

https://prospects365.com/2020/05/25/ray-butlers-2020-mlb-mock-draft/

https://prospects365.com/2020/05/18/ray-butlers-2021-first-year-player-draft-rankings-may/

Between the mock draft provided by Roll Tide and the rankings above, these prospects365 write-ups are excellent and well-reasoned.

This appears on paper to be a deep draft with high upside HS arms available even in the third or fourth rounds - if they will sign.

Regarding our pick at 30, I could probably list 20 names and still might not include who our front office takes.  Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. 

We have no idea who the FO grades higher among middle infielders - the HSer Ed Howard who might be taken at the end of the first round, the college 2B Justin Foscue who is listed in most mocks between 22 and 29 and someone I mentioned a couple weeks ago Freddie Zamora - a college SS who has been injured and suspended.  Foscue's Mississippi State teammate SS Jordan Westburg is rated 35th on the prospectslive list.

We be in on one of the injured, high upside pitchers mentioned previously like JT Ginn or Dax Fulton.  Or any of a number of healthy arms HS Jared Jones, Georgia RHP Cole Wilcox, Florida State RHP CJ Van Eyk, HS RHP Jared Kelley, Louisville RHP Bobby Miller, Miami RHP Slade Cecconi, Duke RHP Bryce Jarvis, Miami RHP Chris McMahon and Wake Forest LHP Jared Shuster.  Elias could stand in front of the microphone after the draft and say he was shocked that he was able to draft one of the names above at 30 and that it was a high upside arm with a delivery needing a little tweaking to unleash spectacular results.  There are, of course, reasons these guys are listed in anyone's top 10, but these pitchers would be very good value at 30.

There are still at least a half dozen hitters on the prospectslive list who would be excellent selections at 30.  The player I have not seen taken in the first round in any mock, who is highest rated on the attached list, is Zach Deloach - a Texas A&M OFer who made a timing adjustment to his swing before the Cape Cod league last summer and produced dramatically improved results in that league and in 77 at-bats early in this spring season.  He is rated 19th on this list.  Rated 20th, Daniel Cabrera LSU OFer.  Rated 23rd is a name many people on here really like HSer Jordan Walker - 3B - and is "young for his class" in the same mode as our top two HSers taken in last year's draft.

There are some good catcher prospects, but I am assuming we pass on those.  Perhaps the best bat among them (and least likely to stick at C - is projected to the NYY late in the first round - Austin Wells.  I would not be surprised at all if we popped Wells if he made it out of the first round.

So, that's 19 names above - several with first round projections in mocks I have seen, but many who will be available at 30 and several who will likely be available at 39.  

Our FO could go in any direction obviously and the requested signing bonuses will have an impact.  If we ended up with two of the pitchers listed above at 30 and 39, it would be two high quality arms.  If we took Jordan Walker at 30 and an arm at 39, I think most here would be absolutely thrilled.  All of this is because we won the supplemental first round lottery and it has positioned us very, very well to add an elite talent besides our normal picks that are second in each round.

[Frobby]

I am really looking forward to the draft.   First time since mid-March I’ve had anything baseball-related to really care about.    

I don’t have strong opinions about who the O’s should pick, but in general I’d rather go with whoever the O’s think is the best player available than try to play some underslot strategy to improve the quality of our subsequent picks.     That’s way too speculative for my taste.   
 

[Roll Tide]

9 hours ago, hoosiers said:

https://prospects365.com/2020/05/18/ray-butlers-2021-first-year-player-draft-rankings-may/

Between the mock draft provided by Roll Tide and the rankings above, these prospects365 write-ups are excellent and well-reasoned.

This appears on paper to be a deep draft with high upside HS arms available even in the third or fourth rounds - if they will sign.

Regarding our pick at 30, I could probably list 20 names and still might not include who our front office takes.  Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. 

We have no idea who the FO grades higher among middle infielders - the HSer Ed Howard who might be taken at the end of the first round, the college 2B Justin Foscue who is listed in most mocks between 22 and 29 and someone I mentioned a couple weeks ago Freddie Zamora - a college SS who has been injured and suspended.  Foscue's Mississippi State teammate SS Jordan Westburg is rated 35th on the prospectslive list.

We be in on one of the injured, high upside pitchers mentioned previously like JT Ginn or Dax Fulton.  Or any of a number of healthy arms HS Jared Jones, Georgia RHP Cole Wilcox, Florida State RHP CJ Van Eyk, HS RHP Jared Kelley, Louisville RHP Bobby Miller, Miami RHP Slade Cecconi, Duke RHP Bryce Jarvis, Miami RHP Chris McMahon and Wake Forest LHP Jared Shuster.  Elias could stand in front of the microphone after the draft and say he was shocked that he was able to draft one of the names above at 30 and that it was a high upside arm with a delivery needing a little tweaking to unleash spectacular results.  There are, of course, reasons these guys are listed in anyone's top 10, but these pitchers would be very good value at 30.

There are still at least a half dozen hitters on the prospectslive list who would be excellent selections at 30.  The player I have not seen taken in the first round in any mock, who is highest rated on the attached list, is Zach Deloach - a Texas A&M OFer who made a timing adjustment to his swing before the Cape Cod league last summer and produced dramatically improved results in that league and in 77 at-bats early in this spring season.  He is rated 19th on this list.  Rated 20th, Daniel Cabrera LSU OFer.  Rated 23rd is a name many people on here really like HSer Jordan Walker - 3B - and is "young for his class" in the same mode as our top two HSers taken in last year's draft.

There are some good catcher prospects, but I am assuming we pass on those.  Perhaps the best bat among them (and least likely to stick at C - is projected to the NYY late in the first round - Austin Wells.  I would not be surprised at all if we popped Wells if he made it out of the first round.

So, that's 19 names above - several with first round projections in mocks I have seen, but many who will be available at 30 and several who will likely be available at 39.  

Our FO could go in any direction obviously and the requested signing bonuses will have an impact.  If we ended up with two of the pitchers listed above at 30 and 39, it would be two high quality arms.  If we took Jordan Walker at 30 and an arm at 39, I think most here would be absolutely thrilled.  All of this is because we won the supplemental first round lottery and it has positioned us very, very well to add an elite talent besides our normal picks that are second in each round.

Mewleski mentions Cecconi who they drafted real late a couple years ago. He went to Miami and now throws 96-97! He’s ranked 31 by BB America according to the article

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

I am really looking forward to the draft.   First time since mid-March I’ve had anything baseball-related to really care about.    

I don’t have strong opinions about who the O’s should pick, but in general I’d rather go with whoever the O’s think is the best player available than try to play some underslot strategy to improve the quality of our subsequent picks.     That’s way too speculative for my taste.   
 

I agree the #1 or #2 picks is valuable as hopefully we won’t be picking that high for much longer. Get the closest thing to a cant miss that you can

[eddie83]

Lacy may wind up being a beast but I am really set on Martin, almost to the point I was with Rutschman last year. 

I just don’t see why they would not take him. His intangibles seem off the chart as well. Even when we won in 2012-16 for the most part we lacked high energy, high OBP athletic talents. He would be fun to watch. I just can’t get past scouts saying he has the best bat and good plate discipline. I will be disappointed he isn’t the pick.  

[ISU94]

2 hours ago, eddie83 said:

Lacy may wind up being a beast but I am really set on Martin, almost to the point I was with Rutschman last year. 

I just don’t see why they would not take him. His intangibles seem off the chart as well. Even when we won in 2012-16 for the most part we lacked high energy, high OBP athletic talents. He would be fun to watch. I just can’t get past scouts saying he has the best bat and good plate discipline. I will be disappointed he isn’t the pick.  

This is exactly where I sit now too.

Everything we've been lacking/looking for he possesses from a prospect standpoint. He's arguably the best player in the draft. Just take him imo.

[El_Duderino]

I’m oddly cool with them taking any of about 5 of these guys. But Martin is at the top.