Roadmap to Contention 2020

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The math goes out the window if Elias trades Cobb and Givens by August 31st.   Which I think is possible if he projects this team to be a .500 team that goes nowhere in the playoffs.  That is why the O's have to play .570 baseball for the three week period prior to August 31st.  To convince Elias that they are better than a .500 team.  JMO

I think Elias will be driven by what he can get in exchange, not what the Orioles’ record is.     

[DrungoHazewood]

11 hours ago, Filmstudy said:

I appreciate you researching, but you should certainly expand the range in both directions, not try to find the first wining percentage at which there was a 5% occurrence of a 10-7 start.  That's statistical cherry picking. 

Also, do you think it's compelling that 1 of 46 teams that finished with a winning percentage between .320 and .339 began the season 10-7?  That observed probability is actually 2.2%, lower than the 2.3% expected from random binomial draws of a .325 team.  If we assumed .330 was the average win percentage of the group, we'd expect 2.5% to start with a record of 10-7 or better with games decided by random draws.

DH, you obviously have some understanding of the math involved here.  What level of statistical significance are you looking for?  And how would you propose modeling in what we know from observing the 2020 Orioles to beginning-of-season expectations? 

It's not cherry picking, it's that I was at work and can only spend so much time pulling data instead of doing what I'm supposed to be doing!  Feel free to expand on my little study.

And I'm already at or near the limits of my math abilities.  I'm an engineer, but my last statistics class was almost 30 years ago...

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

The math goes out the window if Elias trades Cobb and Givens by August 31st.

In a normal season Cobb and Givens combined might be good for three wins above the unwashed masses.  In sixty that's more like one, and in a month more like half a win.  I don't think trading the two of them will likely have a significant impact on anything. 

[Roll Tide]

38 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

In a normal season Cobb and Givens combined might be good for three wins above the unwashed masses.  In sixty that's more like one, and in a month more like half a win.  I don't think trading the two of them will likely have a significant impact on anything. 

If you think Akin or somebody else is ready to match what Cobb has been giving you on his turn that’s probably true.

I get WAR and all .... but the difference between getting a solid start and what you’d get if they don’t have another starter ready is drastic.

Cobb has given you 5 innings at a 2.75 ERA clip. That’s leaving after 5 with 1-2 runs on the board. Usually with the Orioles winning.

His replacement would only have to be twice as bad 5.50 ERA and the game outcomes probably change ..Also need to mention the impact on the pen likely being needed earlier.

I think between the impact of the difference and the additional strain on the pen will be worth more than 1/2 game over 40.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

If you think Akin or somebody else is ready to match what Cobb has been giving you on his turn that’s probably true.

I get WAR and all .... but the difference between getting a solid start and what you’d get if they don’t have another starter ready is drastic.

Cobb has given you 5 innings at a 2.75 ERA clip. That’s leaving after 5 with 1-2 runs on the board. Usually with the Orioles winning.

His replacement would only have to be twice as bad 5.50 ERA and the game outcomes probably change ..Also need to mention the impact on the pen likely being needed earlier.

I think between the impact of the difference and the additional strain on the pen will be worth more than 1/2 game over 40.

I don't think it's particularly likely that Cobb will continue to give you five innings of a 2.75.  Since 2016 his ERA is 4.62 and his FIP is 4.77.  His FIP this year is 4.71.  His BABIP this year is 108 points below his career mark.  Regression towards his career mark isn't just likely with a number like that, it's inevitable.  The lowest BABIP of any ERA qualifier since WWII is .203 (Dave McNally, 1968).

There's not that much difference between five or six starts of a 5.50 and a 4.70.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think Elias will be driven by what he can get in exchange, not what the Orioles’ record is.     

I think Elias will consider both.

[OFFNY]

On 8/14/2020 at 11:11 AM, DrungoHazewood said:

 

One more thing ...... the 1998-2011 Orioles never had a single winning record at the end of the year. Over that entire 14-year period, I'm guessing that they won about 43% of their games.

During that period they started the year 11-6 twice, and 10-7 for 5 consecutive years (from 2004-2008.) I might grudgingly concede that this team is as good as the Kevin Millar, Danys Baez era Orioles. But I'm not in love with the concept.

 

o

 

In late April of 2008, I made the trip from Brewster to Baltimore to see 3 games against the Yankees. The Orioles won the first 2, and had an overall record of 11-7. At the big Double T diner in Catonsville a few hours before the start of the 3rd and final game of the series, an Oriole fan saw the way that I was dressed. He asked me if I had gone to the games, and how the team was doing in general. I said to him, "Well, we just beat the Yankees twice, and our overall record is 11-7 ....... so, we're off to a good start."

 

He looked at me for a second, smiled, and said "Man, we ALWAYS start good." His comment, coupled with his facial expression and the tone of his voice implied that even when we start well, we always finish badly ...... and at that time, his assertion/sentiment was accurate.

 

o

[now]

Pardon me for relying on memory instead of research, but IIRC back in the glory days (1960-1983) we usually started poorly.

[SteveA]

10 minutes ago, now said:

Pardon me for relying on memory instead of research, but IIRC back in the glory days (1960-1983) we usually started poorly.

Yes, Earl's teams especially were known for starting slow and finishing really strong down the stretch.  1982 is an example, as is (either 74 or 75) when we had a strong late rush but fell short.

[Oriole1940]

I,

for one am happy that baseball is unpredictable, regardless how many models are used to try to predict  the outcome of games and seasons.  If it were not unpredictable, then playing the games would be somewhat boring.  

[Aristotelian]

On 8/15/2020 at 6:58 AM, DrungoHazewood said:

In a normal season Cobb and Givens combined might be good for three wins above the unwashed masses.  In sixty that's more like one, and in a month more like half a win.  I don't think trading the two of them will likely have a significant impact on anything. 

On the other hand each start/appearance they make is 3X as valuable, and only 1 win could make a huge difference.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Oriole1940 said:

I,

for one am happy that baseball is unpredictable, regardless how many models are used to try to predict  the outcome of games and seasons.  If it were not unpredictable, then playing the games would be somewhat boring.  

Couldn’t agree more.    One of the things I like best is that the best teams usually win less than 2/3 of the time and the worst teams usually win more than 1/3 of the time, and the home field splits aren’t very drastic.    The other sports are far more skewed.     

[glenn__davis]

Well it's crazy to say but it seems to me like the playoff picture in the AL is already pretty clear.

All of the teams above us - OAK, NYY, TB, MIN, CLE, CHW, HOU - are likely significantly better than the Orioles and will make the playoffs.

The teams below - DET, KC, TEX, SEA, LAA and BOS - are mostly bad teams.  LAA is the only team from that bunch that looks more like a contender on paper but they've dug themselves such a hole.

So in this short season, it seems like BAL and TOR - currently tied at .500 - may be battling for that final spot.

[Philip]

1 hour ago, glenn__davis said:

 

So in this short season, it seems like BAL and TOR - currently tied at .500 - may be battling for that final spot.

And maybe THIS time, Buck will let Britton pitch!

[Roll Tide]

On 8/15/2020 at 8:23 AM, wildcard said:

I think Elias will consider both.

I don’t think so....He knows the Orioles don’t have the starting pitching to be serious contenders even if they can sneak into the playoffs.