Easton Lucas vs. Griffin Conine

[BohKnowsBmore]

39 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

"huge power and scary strikeouts."

I wonder if there's anyone who ever cut their strikeout rate from low-A to the majors.  Conine almost has to, unless he's going to have a .430 BABIP.

At nearly 27 already, doesn't seem too likely.

[DrungoHazewood]

50 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

At nearly 27 already, doesn't seem too likely.

He just turned 23.  But he's not young for his level.  If not for COVID he'd have at least started the year in high A.

[BohKnowsBmore]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

He just turned 23.  But he's not young for his level.  If not for COVID he'd have at least started the year in high A.

Interesting, age pulling in wrong here, apparently:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-prospects-traded-during-the-2020-deadline/

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Interesting, age pulling in wrong here, apparently:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-prospects-traded-during-the-2020-deadline/

Apparently.  If he was almost 27 in low A he'd be no prospect whatsoever.  Essentially there's no one over 23, 24 in low A.

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Is Conine really a high quality prospect?  He struck out 36% of the time in low A ball.  When Ryan Mountcastle was in low A he was two years younger and struck out 19% of the time, and plate discipline is his biggest weakness.

Good point.   I don’t think anyone suggested he’s as good a prospect  as Mountcastle, though.   Darrell Hernaiz is our no. 16 prospect (per OH and pre-draft and trades), and our system is considered a little better than Toronto’s.    Fangraphs has Adam Hall at no. 16 (post-draft and trades).     Those are decent prospects, by no means sure things.   

[Three Run Homer]

I hated the Villar trade at the time and I still do.  I didn't mind the idea of trading him--the O's should be all about trading older, established players to acquire prospects and to clear more playing time for young talent--but you need to get more than a token prospect like Easton Lucas for someone who was your best position player in 2019.  If you don't get a reasonable offer in the off-season, you hold on to Villar and trade him next year at the deadline.  

I don't blame Elias for that trade--he had his legs cut out from under him by the front office, who made it very clear and very public that they would not pay an arbitration-level salary for Villar.  

 

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Good point.   I don’t think anyone suggested he’s as good a prospect  as Mountcastle, though.   Darrell Hernaiz is our no. 16 prospect (per OH and pre-draft and trades), and our system is considered a little better than Toronto’s.    Fangraphs has Adam Hall at no. 16 (post-draft and trades).     Those are decent prospects, by no means sure things.   

Per Fangraphs, Conine was the 20th best prospect traded at the deadline this year.    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-prospects-traded-during-the-2020-deadline/

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

I hated the Villar trade at the time and I still do.  I didn't mind the idea of trading him--the O's should be all about trading older, established players to acquire prospects and to clear more playing time for young talent--but you need to get more than a token prospect like Easton Lucas for someone who was your best position player in 2019.  If you don't get a reasonable offer in the off-season, you hold on to Villar and trade him next year at the deadline.  

I don't blame Elias for that trade--he had his legs cut out from under him by the front office, who made it very clear and very public that they would not pay an arbitration-level salary for Villar.  

 

The acting Angelos said that Elias was/is in charge of BB operations. If Angelos’ (I don’t care which one) said they weren’t paying Villar in Arbitration I’d like to see the quote.

The Orioles payroll before the season was around $61.7 Million. That number includes Bundy who was also dealt. That’s 70 plus million below the league average of 134 million.

Looking at Baseball reference the team share of the National TV money was $118 million and Fangraphs has the local tv revenue for the Orioles at $50 million. I thought that I read that the MASN number was between 70-80 million.

It wouldn’t have made that much of a difference if the team would’ve agreed to the 8.4 that the Marlins gave him or by my estimate a 3 year 7-7.5 per. A number that is easily justified by the 2.0 WAR that he has averaged over the last 5 or so years and he’s only 29 this years so your not overly concerned about age related decline over a 3 years deal.
 

The Orioles will never spend the 70 million saved in a future season. It just doesn’t work that way.Even if they they were paying Villar 6.5 to 8.5 per year they just saved another 6+ million at this years rate off next years payroll. 
 

And while I’m not in love with Conine as a prospect, I think he leaps better than Eason.

 

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/estimated-tv-revenues-for-all-30-mlb-teams/

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/?team=BAL

https://www.forbes.com/teams/baltimore-orioles/#6555e53e76db

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

The acting Angelos said that Elias was/is in charge of BB operations. If Angelos’ (I don’t care which one) said they weren’t paying Villar in Arbitration I’d like to see the quote.

The Orioles payroll before the season was around $61.7 Million. That number includes Bundy who was also dealt. That’s 70 plus million below the league average of 134 million.

Looking at Baseball reference the team share of the National TV money was $118 million and Fangraphs has the local tv revenue for the Orioles at $50 million. I thought that I read that the MASN number was between 70-80 million.

It wouldn’t have made that much of a difference if the team would’ve agreed to the 8.4 that the Marlins gave him or by my estimate a 3 year 7-7.5 per. A number that is easily justified by the 2.0 WAR that he has averaged over the last 5 or so years and he’s only 29 this years so your not overly concerned about age related decline over a 3 years deal.
 

The Orioles will never spend the 70 million saved in a future season. It just doesn’t work that way.Even if they they were paying Villar 6.5 to 8.5 per year they just saved another 6+ million at this years rate off next years payroll. 
 

And while I’m not in love with Conine as a prospect, I think he leaps better than Eason.

 

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/estimated-tv-revenues-for-all-30-mlb-teams/

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/?team=BAL

https://www.forbes.com/teams/baltimore-orioles/#6555e53e76db

Of course you're not going to find that quote.  What probably happened was that either the Angelos Brothers said they wouldn't pay the arb salary, or more likely Elias decided that he would rather have $8-10M freed up for his 2020 budget for whatever purpose, than pay Villar for a few extra wins in what was almost certainly a 50-something win season.

[weams]

13 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

I hated the Villar trade at the time and I still do.  I didn't mind the idea of trading him--the O's should be all about trading older, established players to acquire prospects and to clear more playing time for young talent--but you need to get more than a token prospect like Easton Lucas for someone who was your best position player in 2019.  If you don't get a reasonable offer in the off-season, you hold on to Villar and trade him next year at the deadline.  

I don't blame Elias for that trade--he had his legs cut out from under him by the front office, who made it very clear and very public that they would not pay an arbitration-level salary for Villar.  

 

I believe that Mike Elias did not have the funds to tender Villar. Or Bundy.