ROCH: Orioles move to next phase after trade deadline

[Roll Tide]

Interesting article '

 

A bullpen are is needed by tonights game

 

Also

Quote

Elias is going to keep checking the market for players like Alex Cobb, Hanser Alberto and Paul Fry. He has an entire winter to do it. The value declines for pending free agents such as Cobb, but as we constantly are reminded, contenders get desperate near the deadline and made bold moves.

 

 

 

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/09/orioles-move-to-next-phase-after-trade-deadline.html

[BohKnowsBmore]

45 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Interesting article '

 

A bullpen are is needed by tonights game

 

Also

 

 

 

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/09/orioles-move-to-next-phase-after-trade-deadline.html

Cobb is an interesting case in that he may have less control remaining, but his value could still be more this offseason (vs. now) if he finishes 2020 healthy with something resembling his career numbers. Would be a pretty good 3/4 option for a team that wants to contend in 2021, particularly one that may not have a ton of PR flexibility (if the Os are willing to eat substantial salary).

[ChuckS]

I would argue that a useful starter like Cobb at 14 mil for one season is of more value than two or three years of Cobb at that price.  Team does not have to be tied down. It's relatively low risk, high reward.  

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I would argue that a useful starter like Cobb at 14 mil for one season is of more value than two or three years of Cobb at that price.  Team does not have to be tied down. It's relatively low risk, high reward.  

But he hasn't shown he's 14M worth of useful, he's more 6M worth of useful.  As for high reward, he hasn't been a high reward guy since 2014.

[Roll Tide]

23 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But he hasn't shown he's 14M worth of useful, he's more 6M worth of useful.  As for high reward, he hasn't been a high reward guy since 2014.

How would you feel if he misses this season at 3.5-3.8 ERA and makes all of his starts. I know the last start was not very good but that doesn't mean he cant bounce back

[ChuckS]

28 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But he hasn't shown he's 14M worth of useful, he's more 6M worth of useful.  As for high reward, he hasn't been a high reward guy since 2014.

I’d expect the O’s to eat some of that regardless. My point being, a team much rather be on the hook for Cobb the pending free agent than Cobb with two or three years left at that rate. Which I don’t think Roch takes into account. 
 

 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

How would you feel if he misses this season at 3.5-3.8 ERA and makes all of his starts. I know the last start was not very good but that doesn't mean he cant bounce back

What's his peripherals look like in this scenario? 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, ChuckS said:

I’d expect the O’s to eat some of that regardless. My point being, a team much rather be on the hook for Cobb the pending free agent than Cobb with two or three years left at that rate. Which I don’t think Roch takes into account. 

Sure, a one year commitment would be better for someone like Cobb.

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

What's his peripherals look like in this scenario? 

Not really a guy that goes deep with that stuff on pitchers. I'd be happy if he pitches to that era and averages 6 innings. That would make him as valuable as you are probably going to get.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

Not really a guy that goes deep with that stuff on pitchers. I'd be happy if he pitches to that era and averages 6 innings. That would make him as valuable as you are probably going to get.

You might not be but the other GMs are.  No one is going to trade for a guy with a 3.6 ERA if he's got a 5.5 FIP and bad K rate.

[Roll Tide]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You might not be but the other GMs are.  No one is going to trade for a guy with a 3.6 ERA if he's got a 5.5 FIP and bad K rate.

Cobbs FIP seems to run a 1/2 point higher than his ERA. So for arguments sake lets say 4.05 Since 2016 Cobb's K-9 Is averaging about 6 per for most of his career. ....So I'd assume around 6-6.5

 

EDIT WALKS PER NINE 2.5 and HR +/- 1

[interloper]

Re: Cobb...

Is it worth more to pay most of the salary and get a young A-ball guy and free up a rotation spot.

Or is it worth more to pay him all of his salary for one more year to have one veteran inning eating guy in the rotation to go with Means, Akin, Kremer, etc.? 

I don't really know, but I feel like it's pretty close. So if Cobb stays through his contract, I don't think it's the worst thing in the world if he's reasonably effective. 

[weams]

7 minutes ago, interloper said:

Re: Cobb...

Is it worth more to pay most of the salary and get a young A-ball guy and free up a rotation spot.

Or is it worth more to pay him all of his salary for one more year to have one veteran inning eating guy in the rotation to go with Means, Akin, Kremer, etc.? 

I don't really know, but I feel like it's pretty close. So if Cobb stays through his contract, I don't think it's the worst thing in the world if he's reasonably effective. 

You will get a prospect next deadline, assuming health and baseball.

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, weams said:

You will get a prospect next deadline, assuming health and baseball.

I'm good with that! Cobb is a guy who is more attractive next deadline when most of his salary has already been paid and he's proven to be healthy and effective and someone needs a MOR starter. 

[wildcard]

I think Elias will pay half his salary to trade him this off season.  7or 8m.   That means he saves 7 or 8m.    Which will be a plus even if he does not get a decent prospect in return.

Lowering the payroll is a priority for Elias.   It was a driver in the Castro trade. And with Santander, Nunez, Severino and Armstrong all eligible for arbitration he has a place for that money.