Buying a hurt pitcher

[Just Regular]

Impending FA James Paxton had a setback in his flexor strain recovery.  If he has his TJ soon, he could have 18 months of recovery before OD 2022.

A couple 2-year contract comps in this vein.

San Diego signed Garrett Richards for 2019/2020 for 2/15.5 ($7M/$8.5M).  They've gotten 10 starts of a 4.25 ERA, and tested him out as a reliever in the 6th inning against the Dodgers today.

Minnesota signed Michael Pineda for 2018/2019 for 2/10 ($2M/$8M).  They got 26 starts of a 4.00 ERA last year in Year 2.  He got himself suspended, but it didn't stop the Twins from re-booking him for 2020/2021.

2022 Paxton would be another 125 IP candidate with Means, Akin, Kremer, Baumann, Hall, Rodriguez, Smith.

[LookinUp]

This org has about 10 guys on the way to the majors. The terms would have to be ridiculously good, right?

[Just Regular]

9 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

The terms would have to be ridiculously good, right?

I wouldn't be squeezing him here - it'd actually be comforting to see a fair wage given to a reasonably likely to be useful 2022 player.

[joelala]

I‘d love if we did that. 

[GuidoSarducci]

After the Alex Cobb experiment, I think not

[hoosiers]

I personally think Paxton is over-rated.  

The Os rarely win these kind of highest bidder situations - someone is always willing to put up more $ or take more risk than us.

Paxton could be 33 before he pitches again in the majors.  Doesn't feel like the type of risk the Os should take.  

[sportsfan8703]

I like what HOU did. When they went out and added an arm they bought a horse via trade. The goal is to probably add a FA SP for the 2022 season, then trade for a stud if we’re in it. 

[Aristotelian]

I wouldn't touch Richards. Paxton is interesting. 

[weams]

12 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

Impending FA James Paxton had a setback in his flexor strain recovery.  If he has his TJ soon, he could have 18 months of recovery before OD 2022.

A couple 2-year contract comps in this vein.

San Diego signed Garrett Richards for 2019/2020 for 2/15.5 ($7M/$8.5M).  They've gotten 10 starts of a 4.25 ERA, and tested him out as a reliever in the 6th inning against the Dodgers today.

Minnesota signed Michael Pineda for 2018/2019 for 2/10 ($2M/$8M).  They got 26 starts of a 4.00 ERA last year in Year 2.  He got himself suspended, but it didn't stop the Twins from re-booking him for 2020/2021.

2022 Paxton would be another 125 IP candidate with Means, Akin, Kremer, Baumann, Hall, Rodriguez, Smith.

I don't like this kind of projection. Especially for a year that may be truncated. 

[weams]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I like what HOU did. When they went out and added an arm they bought a horse via trade. The goal is to probably add a FA SP for the 2022 season, then trade for a stud if we’re in it. 

Get Staily back. 

[weams]

9 hours ago, hoosiers said:

I personally think Paxton is over-rated.  

The Os rarely win these kind of highest bidder situations - someone is always willing to put up more $ or take more risk than us.

Paxton could be 33 before he pitches again in the majors.  Doesn't feel like the type of risk the Os should take.  

I do too. 

[Just Regular]

33 minutes ago, weams said:

I don't like this kind of projection. Especially for a year that may be truncated. 

Totally fair observation.  It remains to be seen if the current forced turn off of some of the eggs from the golden goose will induce labor and management to have negotiations that are more productive heading towards 2022.

For Paxton healing specifically, one could argue that a first half strike is 3 more months to heal and then he only has to hold up for 15 starts instead of 30 before October.   This wasn't really about the real world externalities as much as a can to kick about whether Elias, etc. have seen enough progress to invest anything this offseason in 2022's MLB roster.

The 2017 Twins were already an 85-win team before doing this move to support their peak Berrios/Buxton/Sano teams; the 2018 Padres were coming off a streak of 90-loss seasons more like our current state.

[Just Regular]

The Dodgers think Kahnle '22 a risk worth venturing a reported $4.75M on; Ken Giles still out there in a fundamentally similar position if the guess is that the injury-faded version of a former star worth flirting with.

If it pans out, Kahnle will pitch 3-4% of the team's IP in season, then double or more in October.

Except for that one shining Andrew Miller moment, we probably have to buy 162-tools just to make the tournament, but it'll be lovely if in a few years the medium term forecast from there gives more opportunity for this sort of thing.

I will now go erase Kahnle from the target '22 contender roster.

[weams]

On 9/16/2020 at 10:05 PM, OrioleDog said:

Impending FA James Paxton had a setback in his flexor strain recovery.  If he has his TJ soon, he could have 18 months of recovery before OD 2022.

A couple 2-year contract comps in this vein.

San Diego signed Garrett Richards for 2019/2020 for 2/15.5 ($7M/$8.5M).  They've gotten 10 starts of a 4.25 ERA, and tested him out as a reliever in the 6th inning against the Dodgers today.

Minnesota signed Michael Pineda for 2018/2019 for 2/10 ($2M/$8M).  They got 26 starts of a 4.00 ERA last year in Year 2.  He got himself suspended, but it didn't stop the Twins from re-booking him for 2020/2021.

2022 Paxton would be another 125 IP candidate with Means, Akin, Kremer, Baumann, Hall, Rodriguez, Smith.

No

[Roll Tide]

On 9/17/2020 at 12:30 AM, GuidoSarducci said:

After the Alex Cobb experiment, I think not

How was Alex Cobb anything similar? Cobb didn't come here injured and its true the Orioles have had bad luck with free agents. In this case you'd know what you are buying.