#9 2020 Prospect: Dean Kremer - RHP

[Tony-OH]

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2020/10/16/9-2020-prospect-dean-kremer-rhb/

[Moose Milligan]

The walks worry me.

[wildcard]

Now you're just messing with us.   Kremer/Akins was not one of the choices.

So the 50/50/50 means he has reached his ceiling and is not going to get any better inspire of not being 25 until January?

[Sports Guy]

31 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

The walks worry me.

Not me..because he’s not a wild guy.  He easily could have had more Ks and less walks with different umps.  In such a small sample size, a few missed calls here and there greatly effect your numbers.

They definitely need to come down but I think with more experience and less “nibbling”, he will be ok.

 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Now your just messing with us.   Kremer/Akins was not one of the choices.

So the 50/50/50 means he has reached his ceiling and is not going to get any better inspire of not being 25 until January?

If you see my response in the poll question I explained why this happened. Just a bit of a change of heart after I made the poll. Wasn't trying to mess with anyone honestly. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

The walks worry me.

He wasn't a high walk guy in the minors so I think this comes down a bit as he gets more comfortable in the majors. He nibbled a bit too much but as he gains confidence in the curveball and cutter I think we'll see those numbers come down.

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

If you see my response in the poll question I explained why this happened. Just a bit of a change of heart after I made the poll. Wasn't trying to mess with anyone honestly. 

Kremer/Akin was actually my choice, but that wasn’t an option, and knowing how you feel, I thought Lowther be next guy on the totem pole.
 

that’s my story and I’m sticking to it...

[ScGO's]

Subtract his last start vs Boston and he had a 1.69 ERA with an 11.25 K/9 in 16 innings.  SSS.  His FIP was 2.76 even with the bad start.  He's been high K's in the minors with a walk rate around 3 per 9.  I think he can be better than a 4-5 starter.  I think he can reach middle of rotation ceiling.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Kremer/Akin was actually my choice, but that wasn’t an option, and knowing how you feel, I thought Lowther be next guy on the totem pole.
 

that’s my story and I’m sticking to it...

Lowther was hurt a bit in my eyes by not getting an invite to camp until late and then not getting a lot of glowing reports due to his late inclusion. Honestly, they are 10a and 10b but I have statcast data on Akins pitches and none of Lowther so that swung it a little bit. If you picked Lowther you weren't wrong per se.

 

[Tony-OH]

52 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

Subtract his last start vs Boston and he had a 1.69 ERA with an 11.25 K/9 in 16 innings.  SSS.  His FIP was 2.76 even with the bad start.  He's been high K's in the minors with a walk rate around 3 per 9.  I think he can be better than a 4-5 starter.  I think he can reach middle of rotation ceiling.

He never got to the 5th inning in 4 of his 6 starts. That's a concern more than his one really bad start at the end of the year. It was part of his issue in the minors as well. It takes him a lot of pitches to get outs. He gets in a lot of deep counts.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

He wasn't a high walk guy in the minors so I think this comes down a bit as he gets more comfortable in the majors. He nibbled a bit too much but as he gains confidence in the curveball and cutter I think we'll see those numbers come down.

I think so too.    

[LookinUp]

2 hours ago, ScGO's said:

Subtract his last start vs Boston and he had a 1.69 ERA with an 11.25 K/9 in 16 innings.  SSS.  His FIP was 2.76 even with the bad start.  He's been high K's in the minors with a walk rate around 3 per 9.  I think he can be better than a 4-5 starter.  I think he can reach middle of rotation ceiling.

I'm hopeful that our definition of mid-rotation is a much stronger pitcher than it has been for us in the past. These 4/5 types have been our 2's/3's, like Chris Tillman, for example. Not saying these guys will become as good as him at his best, but they might throw a whole lot of innings better than the mid case of Tillman's production.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

I'm hopeful that our definition of mid-rotation is a much stronger pitcher than it has been for us in the past. These 4/5 types have been our 2's/3's, like Chris Tillman, for example. Not saying these guys will become as good as him at his best, but they might throw a whole lot of innings better than the mid case of Tillman's production.

Tillman had a really nice 4.5 year window from June 2012 (was in the minors to start that year) through 2016.     In the 2012-16 window there were 163 pitchers who threw at least 400 innings, and Tillman ranked 63rd in that group with a 3.81 ERA.   His 844.2 innings pitched ranked 30th during that five year span.    I have a very hard time looking at those numbers and concluding that Tillman was not a 2/3 starter in that window.   The fact that he fell off a cliff after that doesn’t change that fact.   

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Tillman had a really nice 4.5 year window from June 2012 (was in the minors to start that year) through 2016.     In the 2012-16 window there were 163 pitchers who threw at least 400 innings, and Tillman ranked 63rd in that group with a 3.81 ERA.   His 844.2 innings pitched ranked 30th during that five year span.    I have a very hard time looking at those numbers and concluding that Tillman was not a 2/3 starter in that window.   The fact that he fell off a cliff after that doesn’t change that fact.   

Yep...goes back to what I was saying in the other thread.

I think people have a completely misconceived notion of how good back end starters have been for years.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep...goes back to what I was saying in the other thread.

I think people have a completely misconceived notion of how good back end starters have been for years.

I find myself agreeing with you much more often since you returned to the site.