Carpenter may have TJ surgery

[Sports Guy]

Are you frickin kidding me?

Right from the very beginning, and throughout this conversation I've acknowledged the possibility for an early extension to work out splendidly.

My point is that it's not someting that is a sure-fire no-brainer, like you're suggesting it is. In fact many very intelligent baseball people have it as a policy not to do this sort of deal. And many of these same people would have no hesitiation about applying this policy to Bedard as well.

And FWIW, I thought the Indians were pretty foolish with the Sizemore deal. That was a *LOT* of unnecessary risk right there. Just because it's worked out for them doesn't automatically make it smart.

BTW you're showing just how hopelessly lost you are here by invoking Jeff Samardzija's name. Not even remotely the same situation as what we're talking about here.

Well, it was a long term contract to a total unknown that you were ok with and it was a terrible decision.

I think you would be hard pressed to find one GM wouldn't give a 4/40 contract to Bedard.

Would you give Zambrano a 4/40 deal right now?

[Sports Guy]

This is precisely what some people would say is stupid *TO* do, two years before it's necessary.

Here you are talking in absolutes again, as if nobody would ever say no. Some would indeed say no to that idea.

Name them.

[davearm]

Well, it was a long term contract to a total unknown that you were ok with and it was a terrible decision.

I think you would be hard pressed to find one GM wouldn't give a 4/40 contract to Bedard.

Would you give Zambrano a 4/40 deal right now?

Sure. Zambrano is 2 months from free agency, not 2 years and 2 months.

[davearm]

Name them.

LOL, as if they don't exist if I can't name them.

I hear there are millions of children starving in Africa, but I can't name any of them, either.

FWIW, this guy named Andy MacPhail had a longstanding policy against this sort of extension throughout his years with the Cubs. Check the record for a guy the Cubs signed longterm more than one year in advance of free agency on his watch. You won't find one.

[Sports Guy]

LOL, as if they don't exist if I can't name them.

I hear there are millions of children starving in Africa, but I can't name any of them, either.

FWIW, this guy named Andy MacPhail had a longstanding policy against this sort of extension throughout his years with the Cubs. Check the record for a guy the Cubs signed longterm more than one year in advance of free agency on his watch. You won't find one.

You spoke IN AN ABSOLUTE saying:

fact many very intelligent baseball people have it as a policy not to do this sort of deal

If that is true, you should have examples of this.

BTW, many other smart baseball men would do this.

You gave me MacPhail...I give you Beane, Shapiro and Ryan just to start it off.

So, who are these other "many very intelligent baseball people"?

[Migrant Redbird]

You do it do exchange a little risk and a somewhat higher salaries during arbitration-eligible years for cost certainty and a discount on his free agency price.

Yes, but the amount saved in arbitration-eligible salary seems to me to be small compared to the additional risk assumed. The team assumes a lot of risk a year earlier than it's necessary.

You want to lock up a good pitcher -- and Bedard certainly qualifies -- before he becomes a free agent. That was the mistake which the O's made with Mussina -- allowing him to reach free agency. They could have signed him the year before he became a free agent for less then they eventually offered to keep him from jumping to the Yankees. (Of course, I might argue that Mussina's best seasons were with Baltimore and he hasn't really been worth since what the O's could have had him for -- much less what the Yankees paid him -- but that's irrelevant to this discussion.)

The optimum time to negotiate that contract is when the pitcher is a year away from free agency, yet still has nothing guaranteed. This is the situation where the team has maximum leverage and minimum risk. Once the player gets into his walk season, the prevailing attitude among players and agents seems to be to avoid the distraction of in-season negotiations and focus instead on increasing his free agent value. If you lock up Bedard through his arbitration eligibility years, then the contract should include a club option for one additional season.