Vaccine/fans in the stands/revenue

[wildcard]

Top goverment official is saying that,   If you want a vaccine you  can get in in the US by June.    I have to feel this is great news for the MLB.   That could mean fans in the stands in larger numbers by June.   2/3 of the season yet to be played.     It might even have some teams deciding to spend some what close to  normal season rates.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/100-of-americans-that-want-the-vaccine-will-have-had-the-vaccine-by-june-says-operation-warp-speed-official-11606795433

How do you think this impacts the O's season.  The planning for the season and the spending that may occur?

[Sports Guy]

Zero impact.  By that I mean, I don’t think they would really be spending anyway.  
 

The pandemic allows them “an out”.

[weams]

A half season for 2021 at best

 

[Orioles0615]

I think it will be before June people will get them. But i agree with Weams, probably no fans for the first half at least. 

[ChuckS]

If the vaccine goes into circulation next month there is no way it will take until June for the general public to have access to it.  

There are only so many healthcare workers and elderly people out there.  A fraction of the larger population and don't underestimate the number of anti-vaxers out there or simply people that want to wait it out before getting the vaccine themselves.  I also think that traveling entertainers such as athletes and actors will have access before the general public.  They may be considered semi-essential. 

I think the general public will begin to have access by March or April and the NBA/MLB possibly before that.  There is a huge financial incentive to get the vaccine distributed to as many people as possible as fast as possible. 

[Sports Guy]

I just wonder if they start to regulate that you have to take the vaccine to go to these games.

If so, I guess I will be going 2 straight years without seeing OPaCy in person.

[Frobby]

47 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

If the vaccine goes into circulation next month there is no way it will take until June for the general public to have access to it.  

There are only so many healthcare workers and elderly people out there.  A fraction of the larger population and don't underestimate the number of anti-vaxers out there or simply people that want to wait it out before getting the vaccine themselves.  I also think that traveling entertainers such as athletes and actors will have access before the general public.  They may be considered semi-essential. 

I think the general public will begin to have access by March or April and the NBA/MLB possibly before that.  There is a huge financial incentive to get the vaccine distributed to as many people as possible as fast as possible. 

I don’t think the article said the vaccine wouldn’t be available to the general public until June.   It said that by June, everyone who wants the vaccine will have had the opportunity to take it.    That’s very different.   Let’s say the vaccine is available to the general public in April but they can only administer 40 million doses a month (I am making up that number).   In that case, it takes a few months before everyone who wants the vaccine has had it.

[LookinUp]

Practically, other than pure money, I feel like the effect will be that as games are less likely to be canceled, there’s less of a reason to keep Chris Davis on the team. That will create a little roster flexibility that could be significant for a notable piece like Diaz.

[ChuckS]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think the article said the vaccine wouldn’t be available to the general public until June.   It said that by June, everyone who wants the vaccine will have had the opportunity to take it.    That’s very different.   Let’s say the vaccine is available to the general public in April but they can only administer 40 million doses a month (I am making up that number).   In that case, it takes a few months before everyone who wants the vaccine has had it.

I was also replying to Weems who is calling for half-season at best in 2021.  I think that's absurd. 

Now, I'm not sure we get a full season.  But I would hope close to it or something like 120 games. Starting in May and ending in November also isn't out of the question. 

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I was also replying to Weems who is calling for half-season at best in 2021.  I think that's absurd. 

Now, I'm not sure we get a full season.  But I would hope close to it or something like 120 games. Starting in May and ending in November also isn't out of the question. 

Honestly, it’s anybody’s guess what they’ll do.    Besides the question of how many people get vaccinated and how quickly, there’s also the question of how fast the virus is spreading as of March/April/May.  The owners are going to want to minimize the number of games played without fans (or with very limited fans).    And whether fans can attend games is not really in their control.  

[wildcard]

36 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Practically, other than pure money, I feel like the effect will be that as games are less likely to be canceled, there’s less of a reason to keep Chris Davis on the team. That will create a little roster flexibility that could be significant for a notable piece like Diaz.

O's will keep Davis until they know if there will be a work stoppage because of the new CBA negotiations in 2022 is my guess.

[jabba72]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Honestly, it’s anybody’s guess what they’ll do.    Besides the question of how many people get vaccinated and how quickly, there’s also the question of how fast the virus is spreading as of March/April/May.  The owners are going to want to minimize the number of games played without fans (or with very limited fans).    And whether fans can attend games is not really in their control.  

Early indications are its going to be like a million infections per week all through the winter months. Who knows what MLB will do about ST, but MLB players will likely be first in line for a vaccination, so maybe they will play the full 162.  Stands probably wont return to capacity until '22 at the earliest. 

[ChuckS]

29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Honestly, it’s anybody’s guess what they’ll do.    Besides the question of how many people get vaccinated and how quickly, there’s also the question of how fast the virus is spreading as of March/April/May.  The owners are going to want to minimize the number of games played without fans (or with very limited fans).    And whether fans can attend games is not really in their control.  

We could have (and should have) played 80 games in 2020, so to think they won't greatly exceed that in 2021 seems unreasonable considering we have a vaccine now.  Not to mention, the fans just won't tolerate it.  

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Early indications are its going to be like a million infections per week all through the winter months. Who knows what MLB will do about ST, but MLB players will likely be first in line for a vaccination, so maybe they will play the full 162.  Stands probably wont return to capacity until '22 at the earliest. 

It will be interesting to see if pro athletes get any special preference.   Whether they should is a political topic I suppose, so I’ll avoid that one.   

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, ChuckS said:

I was also replying to Weems who is calling for half-season at best in 2021.  I think that's absurd. 

Now, I'm not sure we get a full season.  But I would hope close to it or something like 120 games. Starting in May and ending in November also isn't out of the question. 

Absurd?  Have you not been paying attention to the reaction to this?  I think half a season is being optimistic personally.