Projected Orioles 2021 Opening Day Payroll (ODP)

[LookinUp]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And you are sorely mistaken if you think those players are hamstringing Elias.  The Orioles can clearly and obviously spend more money than 60M.  So, if you want to say within the framework of only having a 60M payroll sure Elias is hamstrung by them.  However, the 60M payroll threshold is obviously set by ownership and that is truly what Elias is hamstrung by.

What if I told you that Elias is hamstrung, but not because of the current payroll? What if he's hamstrung by his own plan, and it's by his choice?

Here's what I mean. Imagine that Davis and Cobb magically went away. Am I really supposed to believe that Elias would replace their salary and end up with ~$60 million in payroll? Am I alternatively supposed to believe that if we had yet another bad contract, and a $70 million payroll, that he would have to find $10 million to shed somewhere in his budget?

I think the answer's no. I think his mission is to rebuild, which means he has no desire to spend to get from 65-68 wins. He wants a great farm system, and he will shed a decent current player to achieve his more pressing priority. I think that's true whether the payroll is $40 million, $60 million or $80 million. This isn't me defending the Angelos' by any means. I just think you're conflating their cheapness with Elias' own strategy for a rebuild.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

What if I told you that Elias is hamstrung, but not because of the current payroll? What if he's hamstrung by his own plan, and it's by his choice?

Here's what I mean. Imagine that Davis and Cobb magically went away. Am I really supposed to believe that Elias would replace their salary and end up with ~$60 million in payroll? Am I alternatively supposed to believe that if we had yet another bad contract, and a $70 million payroll, that he would have to find $10 million to shed somewhere in his budget?

I think the answer's no. I think his mission is to rebuild, which means he has no desire to spend to get from 65-68 wins. He wants a great farm system, and he will shed a decent current player to achieve his more pressing priority. I think that's true whether the payroll is $40 million, $60 million or $80 million. This isn't me defending the Angelos' by any means. I just think you're conflating their cheapness with Elias' own strategy for a rebuild.

I don’t buy that this is his or would be his doing.

Elias definitely would still be rebuilding but he has publicly stated that he would like to add a bad contract for a good prospect, as an example.

He is all about player acquisitions and building inventory.   No doubt in my mind that he would go after players that can help with that.

Now, that doesn’t mean he would out there spending 20+M a year on few agents.  I don’t know if that’s something that Interests him or not but I do think if he were free to take the payroll much higher that he would do it.

Put another way...I don’t think Elias is dumb enough to close the door on any way to acquire talent to help the team.  But I think ownership is.  They have allowed him to open the door to international free agency and I would bet they believe they deserve a pat on the back for that.

And btw, he can build a great farm system whether the team wins 60 games or wins 100 games.

[CarrRun49]

Literally can't go to a thread without a fight between @Sports Guy vs TBAL.

It's great. And every thread turns into about the mistrust of ownership and lack of funds! I LOVE IT

 

In this thread, money spent is an obvious talking point. But not others.

Edited December 4, 2020 by CarrRun49
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[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, CarrRun49 said:

Literally can't go to a thread without a fight between @Sports Guy vs TBAL.

It's great. And every thread turns into about the mistrust of ownership and lack of funds! I LOVE IT

Hoosiers has always had an issue and he apparently still wants to grind that axe even though nothing I said to him here should cause him to throw a temper tantrum like my 3 y/o son does.

But whatever...it is what it is.

Also, it does seem funny to me how quickly so many people here want to run to give the organization the benefit of the doubt.  It’s how it was for a decade and they all got bit every time by doing it yet here we are, 10 years later and they are still defending them as if we are some well oiled machine run by great owners.

[Sports Guy]

I also think they bring in some kind of a vet starter and that Zimmerman isn’t the #5 guy.

They may not bring in anyone who you really want to give innings too but I still expect that to happen.  
 

As the season goes on, Zimmerman, Wells, Baumann, Lowther, et al will have their chances to come up.

[LookinUp]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t buy that this is his or would be his doing.

Elias definitely would still be rebuilding but he has publicly stated that he would like to add a bad contract for a good prospect, as an example.

He is all about player acquisitions and building inventory.   No doubt in my mind that he would go after players that can help with that.

Now, that doesn’t mean he would out there spending 20+M a year on few agents.  I don’t know if that’s something that Interests him or not but I do think if he were free to take the payroll much higher that he would do it.

Put another way...I don’t think Elias is dumb enough to close the door on any way to acquire talent to help the team.  But I think ownership is.  They have allowed him to open the door to international free agency and I would bet they believe they deserve a pat on the back for that.

And btw, he can build a great farm system whether the team wins 60 games or wins 100 games.

So, by your post above, you agree that the Iglesias trade does fit into what we'd expect Elias to be doing ("building inventory"), correct?

As for free agents, I can imagine him wanting to spend BIG in a place where he might not think we have answers during a competitive period. So at SS or 2B, for example, I'd expect he might hold off on a big name guy because he might think we have our own big name guys 2-3 years away, so the paying part wouldn't make sense re: a competitive team. Same for 3B, outfield, catcher and even pitcher.

I honestly think that 90% of what he's doing is consistent with what I would expect him to do given a complete rebuild. The one part I agree with is the opportunity to take on bigger contracts in exchange for more prospects. I too wish we'd go that route. I think the next level example of that is signing a guy like Cobb (e.g., more expensive than Iglesias) and hoping for performance so you can trade him. I think the cost/risk equation there gets a little out of hand though. 

[foxfield]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Hoosiers has always had an issue and he apparently still wants to grind that axe even though nothing I said to him here should cause him to throw a temper tantrum like my 3 y/o son does.

But whatever...it is what it is.

Also, it does seem funny to me how quickly so many people here want to run to give the organization the benefit of the doubt.  It’s how it was for a decade and they all got bit every time by doing it yet here we are, 10 years later and they are still defending them as if we are some well oiled machine run by great owners.

SG, in all honesty, I think you are the one getting the benefit of the doubt. I don't want to take sides here...I for one am not giving the Organization anything.  But I will also not judge the Owner or the GM for the asinine actions of their predecessors.  Frankly, it's still too early to really have a solid feel for either the Angelos sons or Elias. You seem to have seen enough from both to determine the owner is terrible and the GM cheap or fatally restricted.

The inherited contacts of Davis and Cobb to most of us would have been better to just throw away.  But these dollars are not Monopoly money and they do impact the club.  If it were my decision Davis would have been gone 2 years ago and I would have to explain to ownership today how the money Covid would have saved can be replaced.  

I agree with many of your opinions, but they do seem disassociated from financial reality, not just for the Orioles but for baseball.  I wish the Orioles could spend another 20 mil. And I expect them to try to win 162 games.  But I am 100% ok with judging them based on progress that is not based solely on wins.  Im also 100% ok with any fan who can't accept that.  We have all had to swallow some real terrible stuff over the years.  For those of us who lived through the Orioles being a model organization it seems like eons ago when wins and losses were also not the litmus test but rather it was pennants.  

We are a long way from that and I cannot tell you or anyone else that Mike Elias is gonna get us there or even IF he can, given ownership.  But Elias seems to understand the gig and seems to have a plan.  Covid probably stymies the timetable, but we are about a year from being in a position to expect some real upward growth.  If we fail, I will join you and others in being critical.  Until then I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that your disdain for past sins is difficult to set aside.

It's gonna be a whole lot more fun when we can debate which All Star we should trade and which one we should extend. As opposed to which player will be left on the roster to DH

[Sports Guy]

I’m not ignoring any financial issues that occurred in 2020.  The Os were crying poor me because of the MASN case or whatever excuse you want to use before covid.

Do you really think the payroll would be another 20-40M if Covid never happened?  I’m betting the payroll is the same going into 2021 regardless of the situation.

And I am in no way blaming Elias.  I’m really glad he is here and I have basically agreed with everything he has done.  I don’t have any complaints about him.

All of my complaints are centered around the family that has driven this organization into the ground for 2 decades.  They don’t deserve an ounce of the benefit of the doubt and it’s astounding to me that anyone would give it to them even if we all agree the sons are better than the dad.

Davis and Cobb do not stop you from doing anything if your ownership allows it.  The Orioles can easily spend another 20-30M, have those players here and field a better team.  That money is spent.  You don’t have to hide from it.  You just have to work around it.  If the team was willing to do that, they easily could.  
 

If Davis retires tomorrow, meaning we aren’t on the hook for his contract, would ownership allow Elias to spend 20M on free agents?  Maybe.  I tend to doubt it though. 
 

Overall, I love the direction of the team and organization but they should be trying harder to win now and the idea that people accept that they aren’t is absurd to me.

[Sports Guy]

4 hours ago, LookinUp said:

So, by your post above, you agree that the Iglesias trade does fit into what we'd expect Elias to be doing ("building inventory"), correct?

As for free agents, I can imagine him wanting to spend BIG in a place where he might not think we have answers during a competitive period. So at SS or 2B, for example, I'd expect he might hold off on a big name guy because he might think we have our own big name guys 2-3 years away, so the paying part wouldn't make sense re: a competitive team. Same for 3B, outfield, catcher and even pitcher.

I honestly think that 90% of what he's doing is consistent with what I would expect him to do given a complete rebuild. The one part I agree with is the opportunity to take on bigger contracts in exchange for more prospects. I too wish we'd go that route. I think the next level example of that is signing a guy like Cobb (e.g., more expensive than Iglesias) and hoping for performance so you can trade him. I think the cost/risk equation there gets a little out of hand though. 

Yes.  I said I liked the Iglesias trade. I’m glad he made the trade.

 

[weams]

13 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

 
 

If Davis retires tomorrow, meaning we aren’t on the hook for his contract, would ownership allow Elias to spend 20M on free agents?  Maybe.  
 

 

Maybe, what if he did not want to?

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, weams said:

Maybe, what if he did not want to?

Well I think he definitely would want to.  That doesn’t mean he would want to in the sense that he has 1 or 2 free agents he would like to give a larger contract to but he may want to trade for a contract to get a prospect or 2.

A lot of talk on here about how the Os are justified in being cheap coming off of 2020.  I personally think that talk is bs BUT I also agree that whatever it is that they can spend, would be less coming off of 2020.  It’s not like I’m clamoring for the days of a 130+M payroll.

However, every other team has the same issues and there are other teams in that small to mid market area that would probably love to get rid of some contracts even if it meant giving up prospects.  This is going back to the Cozart deal last year and Elias saying he would do those types of deals.  I have zero doubt if he was allowed to spend that he would spend.  It doesn’t mean he’s signing a guy to a 3 year deal for 15-18M a year but it means that he would spend to get something he wants. 
 

He is too smart, too knowledgeable and too hungry to increase his inventory to allow opportunities to go by him if he had the freedom to do whatever he wanted.

[Frobby]

16 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not ignoring any financial issues that occurred in 2020.  The Os were crying poor me because of the MASN case or whatever excuse you want to use before covid.

Do you really think the payroll would be another 20-40M if Covid never happened?  I’m betting the payroll is the same going into 2021 regardless of the situation.

And I am in no way blaming Elias.  I’m really glad he is here and I have basically agreed with everything he has done.  I don’t have any complaints about him.

All of my complaints are centered around the family that has driven this organization into the ground for 2 decades.  They don’t deserve an ounce of the benefit of the doubt and it’s astounding to me that anyone would give it to them even if we all agree the sons are better than the dad.

Davis and Cobb do not stop you from doing anything if your ownership allows it.  The Orioles can easily spend another 20-30M, have those players here and field a better team.  That money is spent.  You don’t have to hide from it.  You just have to work around it.  If the team was willing to do that, they easily could.  
 

If Davis retires tomorrow, meaning we aren’t on the hook for his contract, would ownership allow Elias to spend 20M on free agents?  Maybe.  I tend to doubt it though. 
 

Overall, I love the direction of the team and organization but they should be trying harder to win now and the idea that people accept that they aren’t is absurd to me.

I want to be sure I understand your argument.    Which of these things are you saying:

1.  If we spent more now, we might be able to contend now.

2.  If we spent more now, we wouldn’t contend, but we’d be a lot better and could acquire players that could still help us when we’re ready to contend.   

Or, is it some other argument?

I’m assuming you are arguing no. 2.    But I think that argument rests on two pillars: (a) any money we save by not spending it now won’t be made available later but will go irrevocably into the owners’ pockets, and (2) the benefit of having a better draft position and a bigger allocation of draft/international spending dollars isn’t that important.    I disagree on both points.   I’d rather save the money, have high draft picks and build the strongest farm system possible, then spend when the team is ready to win.    And that’s what I think Elias is doing.   
 

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I want to be sure I understand your argument.    Which of these things are you saying:

1.  If we spent more now, we might be able to contend now.

2.  If we spent more now, we wouldn’t contend, but we’d be a lot better and could acquire players that could still help us when we’re ready to contend.   

Or, is it some other argument?

I’m assuming you are arguing no. 2.    But I think that argument rests on two pillars: (a) any money we save by not spending it now won’t be made available later but will go irrevocably into the owners’ pockets, and (2) the benefit of having a better draft position and a bigger allocation of draft/international spending dollars isn’t that important.    I disagree on both points.   I’d rather save the money, have high draft picks and build the strongest farm system possible, then spend when the team is ready to win.    And that’s what I think Elias is doing.   
 

There is no way the Orioles or any other team is saving money to spend later.  It just doesn’t happen.

If that were the case, why would teams cry poor me after one season of lost profits that was proceeded by years and years of making a boatload of money and team values skyrocketing?

And again, you can build a strong farm system no matter how many games you win.

[Sports Guy]

Btw Frobby, to answer your first question...it’s more #2 than #1 but it’s not really that cut and dry.  I just want Elias to have the freedom to acquire talent in any way he wants.  

Let’s say the Rangers called us up and they said if you take Roughned Odor’s contract, we will also send you Josh Jung.  He is a top 50ish prospect, top 10 pick in 2019. He is a third baseman.  Let’s just say that Elias loves Jung and is more than willing to take on the rest of that deal to get him.  I want him to be able to go to ownership and say this is what I want and them say, of course you can do it if you feel that strongly about Jung.

There is no way I believe he can do that.

And just in general, I think the Os should be trying to be better and win more games.  It’s been a while now, it’s time to stop caring about wins.  (I think that time came prior to 2020)

He can still do everything else he is trying to do and still improve the team and win.

[CarrRun49]

On 12/4/2020 at 1:29 PM, Sports Guy said:

Hoosiers has always had an issue and he apparently still wants to grind that axe even though nothing I said to him here should cause him to throw a temper tantrum like my 3 y/o son does.

But whatever...it is what it is.

Also, it does seem funny to me how quickly so many people here want to run to give the organization the benefit of the doubt.  It’s how it was for a decade and they all got bit every time by doing it yet here we are, 10 years later and they are still defending them as if we are some well oiled machine run by great owners.

I’m not disagreeing. The rhetoric gets old when it’s all you read in every thread. Example:

Orioles trade for player X

player X makes 750,000

player y makes 751,000 is DFA’d

OWNERSHIP IS CHEAP. THEY’RE CUTTING PAYROLL.