Trade Bait 2021

[ScGO's]

On 12/19/2020 at 11:13 AM, ScGO's said:

Around November of last year, I posted a "Trade Bait 2020" thread that was fun to track through out the year since a large part of rebuilding is trading off older assets or players with 2-3+ years of service time who may be at "peak value." 

I am excited about this potential list as well as these players could potentially bring back more quality young and controllable pieces for the futures. I'm not saying all these players should or will be traded, but if I was Elias, these are the players I am going into the season monitoring with an eye towards swinging for a return of more young talent if they do perform.

1. Alex Cobb - Everything depends on Cobb being healthy and putting up decent numbers.  He can probably maintain some value as long as he keep his ERA under 5.00 and average 5-6 IP per start. If he performs at his highest level, we can probably get an organizational top 10

2. Trey Mancini - If he can get back to an .850+ OPS and prove he is back to full health, trading Trey could bring back a solid package of prospects.  This trade doesn't need to be forced by Elias; more or less, he just needs to see if the offers are there.  If multiple teams are desperate to add a big bat, let them bid against one another and see if you can pry a top 100 prospect.

3. Pedro Severino - He is 27 years old; if there is going to be a break out season, it will be this year.  Even if he is a .700+ OPS Catcher, he could create some value for a playoff team needing depth behind the plate.  With AR arriving soon, now is the time to shop Pedro.  I don't expect a huge return; maybe a top 20-30 organizational prospect and a lottery ticket.

4. Anthony Santander - No rush to push Anthony either as he only has 2 years of service. However, with a lot of OF depth in the system, Anthony could reach peak value this season and bring back a very strong return if he can put up a .850+ season with solid defense.  I believe he has the potential to bring back a top 100 prospect, or two organizational top 10 prospects.

5. John Means - Much like Santander, there is no rush to trade Means, but again, with a lot of pitching prospects on the rise, if Means reaches peak value this season, he too could bring back a top 100 prospects or multiple top 10 organizational prospects.  I saw the physical changes Means made in 2020, so if he can put it all together in 2021, it will be hard not to listen to offers.

6. Chance Sisco - He has shown flashes of OBP skills and pop, but the bat to ball skills haven't caught up yet.  He will have the opportunity to establish value this season again, and with AR coming, Elias needs to figure out if Sisco has any value for the O's in the future in some capacity outside of starting Catcher.  He's only 26 and has just 2 years of service. I still think he should take reps at 3B and see if he can push Ruiz.  Definitely a wildcard here as there may be no value in the long run if he falters this year.

7. Pat Valaika - 3 years service time and age 28. If he can push an .800 OPS and continue to exhibit versatility, he could become a piece for playoff team needing bench depth. He he is not a long term piece, so to get a top 30 org prospect in return would be awesome.

8. Shawn Armstrong - On the wrong side of 30 and with 3 years of service time, Armstrong could be a solid trade candidate if he can build on his 2020 success.  With 3 years of service he could be appealing to playoff contenders as he is controllable for multiple seasons. Maybe he can get a return similar to what Miguel Castro got us this year.

9. Tanner Scott and Paul Fry - These two LH Relievers have only 2 years of service time, but again, with a lot of pitching depth in the system, these two could reach peak value this season and if the return can be similar or better than what we got for Castro or Givens, it might be time to pull the trigger.

10. Rio Ruiz and DJ Stewart - Both are 27, Ruiz has 2 years of service and Stewart 1, and neither has any trade value at the moment.  The tools and opportunities are there to build more potential value this season.  No reason to push for a trade unless they perform, but if they can show improvements, it may be worth drumming up some interest as they may not have a place in the long term plans. Both of these guys could also flop and be off the 40 man before June too.

11. Yolmer Sanchez - If he wins the 2B job and shows the Gold Glove defense and can push the .700 OPS, he may be able to draw some interest from a playoff contender looking for infield depth.  I don't expect a large return, but something is better than nothing for a player who will be 29 and in his 6th year of service.

12. Cesar Valdez, Cole Sulser, Travis Lakins, Fernado Abad - Maybe one of these older, less heralded relievers can strum up some value.  Right now, there is no value here, but If Valdez can repeat his 2020, Sulser can get back to the reliever he was in the beginning of last season, Lakins and improve on his peripheral statistics, or Abad can be an above average LH reliever, we may be able to snag a lottery ticket or PTBNL.

13. Unknown FA - There has been talk of adding a couple veterans on 1 year deals.  Perhaps Elias adds someone similar to a Tommy Millone or pulls the trigger on a Puig or Schwarber with the intent to swing them at the All Star Break if they perform.

 

 

 

 

Hope its cool to bump this. 

Cobb is off the list.  Santandar and Mancini are the only others that could potentially be dealt before the season started. 

We can also add Freddy Galvis to the list fulfilling the 13 Slot. There could be another free agent pick up added to this list before the season begins. 

It will be interesting to see who builds value for themselves this season and who Elias chooses to shop.

[sportsfan8703]

Realistically 2023 is our year to contend. Mancini is a FA after 2022. Severino, Santander, and Means will be deep into Arb. I don’t know how much more trading teams will do before ST starts, but our trade bait cupboard is not bear. If we traded all the above names around the deadline, we should not few it as a fire sale. 

[Roll Tide]

I wouldn’t be that surprised if we traded Santander or Mancini before spring training. It’s obvious that everything on the table is for sale. I can’t help but think Mancini could have higher trade value at the deadline after he proves that he’s back to his old self.

[jamalshw]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I wouldn’t be that surprised if we traded Santander or Mancini before spring training. It’s obvious that everything on the table is for sale. I can’t help but think Mancini could have higher trade value at the deadline after he proves that he’s back to his old self.

I really hope Mancini isn't dealt until the deadline. As you noted, he's not at peak value now, but more than that, the story of him coming back from cancer and is one that can at least drive some interest early in the season. It's also a bad PR look to the casual fans to trade Mancini before he comes back. Let him come back. Let Oriole fans show him support (even if not in the stadium) and let him re-establish himself. Then, a mid-season trade when new young guys are coming up to provide some of that distraction, deal him to a team that has a chance at the postseason. It allows him to ease back in a familiar environment without many expectations and gets him into a playoff hunt later in the year. I feel that is definitely the best situation for both sides, more value for the Orioles in a deal and a better path to success for Mancini.

[sportsfan8703]

With Santander’s arb figure settled(O’s won) now, I wonder if trade talks will heat back up.  It’s not just a win for this year, but will also influence his future earnings. 
 

We’re actually a really good match with Miami. They’re trying to contend without mortgaging the future. We can offer them a trade where they get to upgrade their MLB roster, and at the same time consolidating some of their “spare” parts, which those parts also fit with what we’re trying to do. Both position wise and timeline. 
 

Santander is obviously a fit since they’ve asked about him, but we could also include Severino since he would upgrade their Catching situation.  Also, we could include one of our “MLB tested” remaining relievers in Armstrong or Fry. 
 

After looking over Miami’s system Jazz Chisholm should be our target, but would Miami trade him?  They have Miguel Rojas at SS this year, and they have a few other SS prospects that could be ready in 22’-23’. If they acquire Santander, I’m sure they would want to swap some of their OF currently on their 25 man roster. Brinson and Sierra mainly. Sierra is out of options, and Santander would push him further down the depth chart. 

Option One:

Santander for SS Jazz Chisholm. Straight up 1-1 swap. 

Option Two:

Santander for one of Sierra/Brinson, one of their top 10-20 OF prospects(Misner, Scott, Burdick, Encarnacion, Conine) and one of their top 10-20 SS prospects(Devers, Salas, Nunez).

This would be the very definition of Miami trading spare parts for Santander. I think it’s selling a little low on Santander, but it might be hard to turn down Misner, and Salas, while taking one of Sierra/Brinson. The Marlins get to keep Chisholm. 
 

Option Three:

Santander and Severino for SS Jazz Chisholm, OF Brinson/Sierra, and one their top 10-20 OF depth that is mentioned above. 
 

Overall, there is a deal to be made here that benefits both clubs. It would be really nice to flip an OF for a SS of the future. Chisholm and Jones would be electric up the middle for years. 

[HowAboutThat]

On 2/2/2021 at 2:44 AM, sportsfan8703 said:

Realistically 2023 is our year to contend. Mancini is a FA after 2022. Severino, Santander, and Means will be deep into Arb. I don’t know how much more trading teams will do before ST starts, but our trade bait cupboard is not bear. If we traded all the above names around the deadline, we should not few it as a fire sale. 

Why 2023? Why not start to move late this year and legit contend next?

I really think our pitching is going to be vastly improved by the end of this season So long as we don’t waste time with washed up vets. We have three or four guys who could get legitimate long-term looked the season, and even if only a couple of them are successful(~league average) That would give us a reasonable rotation. We’ve got a solid outfield so long as they stay healthy, catching is bad third Will probably be bad, but first second and short should be average, and remember, average ain’t bad.

I will be disappointed if we don’t win more than 70 games this year. The trade target in the Cobb trade indicates that Mike, despite his protestations to the contrary, is also leaning towards moving towards meaningful contention by next season.

[Can_of_corn]

Because if you can convince the fans that winnings isn't a priority then you can keep payroll low for a longer period of time.  The O's took a college player 1-1, a player that is being lauded as a generational talent, and have managed to convince the fanbase the best course of action is to leave him languishing in the minors.

It's kind of beautiful in a way.

[jabba72]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because if you can convince the fans that winnings isn't a priority then you can keep payroll low for a longer period of time.  The O's took a college player 1-1, a player that is being lauded as a generational talent, and have managed to convince the fanbase the best course of action is to leave him languishing in the minors.

It's kind of beautiful in a way.

He hasnt done anything in the minors either. I'd like to see him start in A ball even if its only a week or two.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

He hasnt done anything in the minors either. I'd like to see him start in A ball even if its only a week or two.  

Why?

A week means nothing.

All it does is make his life less comfortable as he deals with the hassle of moving and different team mates and coaches.

He has three years of college ball and a half a season of instructional camp that they can base things off of.

I honestly can't wrap my head around why you think he should go play in A ball. 

He wasn't some toolsy but unrefined project they picked.

What could possibly happen in a week or two at A ball that would mean anything?]

If he goes 0-for, it means nothing.

If he hits .500, it means nothing.

When he inevitability does something between those two poles, it means nothing.

 

[Roll Tide]

41 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

With Santander’s arb figure settled(O’s won) now, I wonder if trade talks will heat back up.  It’s not just a win for this year, but will also influence his future earnings. 
 

We’re actually a really good match with Miami. They’re trying to contend without mortgaging the future. We can offer them a trade where they get to upgrade their MLB roster, and at the same time consolidating some of their “spare” parts, which those parts also fit with what we’re trying to do. Both position wise and timeline. 
 

Santander is obviously a fit since they’ve asked about him, but we could also include Severino since he would upgrade their Catching situation.  Also, we could include one of our “MLB tested” remaining relievers in Armstrong or Fry. 
 

After looking over Miami’s system Jazz Chisholm should be our target, but would Miami trade him?  They have Miguel Rojas at SS this year, and they have a few other SS prospects that could be ready in 22’-23’. If they acquire Santander, I’m sure they would want to swap some of their OF currently on their 25 man roster. Brinson and Sierra mainly. Sierra is out of options, and Santander would push him further down the depth chart. 

Option One:

Santander for SS Jazz Chisholm. Straight up 1-1 swap. 

Option Two:

Santander for one of Sierra/Brinson, one of their top 10-20 OF prospects(Misner, Scott, Burdick, Encarnacion, Conine) and one of their top 10-20 SS prospects(Devers, Salas, Nunez).

This would be the very definition of Miami trading spare parts for Santander. I think it’s selling a little low on Santander, but it might be hard to turn down Misner, and Salas, while taking one of Sierra/Brinson. The Marlins get to keep Chisholm. 
 

Option Three:

Santander and Severino for SS Jazz Chisholm, OF Brinson/Sierra, and one their top 10-20 OF depth that is mentioned above. 
 

Overall, there is a deal to be made here that benefits both clubs. It would be really nice to flip an OF for a SS of the future. Chisholm and Jones would be electric up the middle for years. 

Why Chisholm? He’s pull happy, over aggressive, and a 32% K rate.

 

Id ask for Devers, Eder, and Campbell. That’s their 13, 23, & 25 according to MLB. And I’m not throwing anything else back their way.

 

 

Quote

Devers has the best bat-to-ball skills in the system and has had no difficulty making consistent contact against more experienced pitchers. Though the Marlins have had him focus on gaining strength, he's still slender and has a flat left-handed swing, so he doesn't drive the ball for much power and may have a ceiling of 10 homers per season. He has a disciplined approach and understands his offensive game is all about getting on base and taking advantage of his plus speed. 

Devers also shows advanced instincts at shortstop, where he has a quick first step and has improved his arm strength to solid since turning pro. He's capable of playing all over the infield in a utility role should he not produce enough offense to claim an everyday job. Adding more muscle not only could help him raise his offensive profile but also could improve his durability after he missed time the last two seasons with shoulder, groin, forearm and hand injuries.

 

[maybenxtyr]

31 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why?

A week means nothing.

All it does is make his life less comfortable as he deals with the hassle of moving and different team mates and coaches.

He has three years of college ball and a half a season of instructional camp that they can base things off of.

I honestly can't wrap my head around why you think he should go play in A ball. 

He wasn't some toolsy but unrefined project they picked.

What could possibly happen in a week or two at A ball that would mean anything?]

If he goes 0-for, it means nothing.

If he hits .500, it means nothing.

When he inevitability does something between those two poles, it means nothing.

 

And to make matters more pressing, he's a catcher. They should absolutely have him up in order to get as many games as possible out of him and his position.

[PeteCanes]

35 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why?

A week means nothing.

All it does is make his life less comfortable as he deals with the hassle of moving and different team mates and coaches.

He has three years of college ball and a half a season of instructional camp that they can base things off of.

I honestly can't wrap my head around why you think he should go play in A ball. 

He wasn't some toolsy but unrefined project they picked.

What could possibly happen in a week or two at A ball that would mean anything?]

If he goes 0-for, it means nothing.

If he hits .500, it means nothing.

When he inevitability does something between those two poles, it means nothing.

 

Yeah what, A ball?  If it wasn’t for contract rigamarole, dude should be the starting catcher to start the year.  

[Just Regular]

It needs the NL to get the DH, so Santander can save McCutchen's legs, but if we have OF/SP excess, want longer term IF pieces and don't want to punt 2022 yet, Santander for Kingery and Means for Kieboom give a pair of infielders that their present Win Now holders don't seem to want to use in the infield.

Or if the Phillies want to keep 2B Kingery, does Santander and/or Segura salary relief and/or bullpen help get Spencer Howard on to the table.  Dombrowski's team today is probably worsening compared to the division year over year and might flirt with last place anyway.

If I had to guess one longer term player to move in the next few weeks, I would probably guess Kieboom somewhere for Scherzer's walk year.   I am ready to rag the in-laws about how by next year Baltimore is a better spot for Max's sunset years than Washington.

[PeteCanes]

4 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

It needs the NL to get the DH, so Santander can save McCutchen's legs, but if we have OF/SP excess, want longer term IF pieces and don't want to punt 2022 yet, Santander for Kingery and Means for Kieboom give a pair of infielders that their present Win Now holders don't seem to want to use in the infield.

Or if the Phillies want to keep 2B Kingery, does Santander and/or Segura salary relief and/or bullpen help get Spencer Howard on to the table.  Dombrowski's team today is probably worsening compared to the division year over year and might flirt with last place anyway.

If I had to guess one longer term player to move in the next few weeks, I would probably guess Kieboom somewhere for Scherzer's walk year.   I am ready to rag the in-laws about how by next year Baltimore is a better spot for Max's sunset years than Washington.

You’re saying Means for Kieboom?  You’re dreaming 

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Why Chisholm? He’s pull happy, over aggressive, and a 32% K rate.

 

Id ask for Devers, Eder, and Campbell. That’s their 13, 23, & 25 according to MLB. And I’m not throwing anything else back their way.

Chisholm is the guy to get to get or I’d go with the upside bats of Salas and Misner. The question is when do we target competing?  Realistically that is 2023. So we could target players further away from the MLB with high upside. Give us as many bullets for 2023+. Misner and Salas are about as high upside as you can get. 
 

With all that being said, I’d prefer the return of Chisholm. You stick Chisholm and Jones in AAA for all of 2021. Let them develop chemistry together. Maybe give them a look in September. I accept that there will be lots of K’s and erratic defense, but by 2023 i would hope they could have improvements. Then you’re looking at a 40+ HR total from our infield duo. With a ton of athleticism. Playing in OPACY we need power. Chisholm’s strengths would play up in OPACY. 
 

I’m willing to risk selling early on Santander for that. We have COF options for 2023 to replace him. We lack a high upside SS that will stick at SS.