Santander drawing interest

[Jammer7]

In Roch's blog this morning, he wrote about Santander being available for trade and drawing interest from the Marlins.

Quote

I’m working under the assumption that Santander stays with the club. I’ve heard that he’s drawing interest. A scout from another organization said, “He’s out there for trade.” Keep an eye on the Marlins, who are looking for a right fielder. And keep in mind that these talks happen every offseason and often lead to nothing.

I would doubt he goes anywhere before the deadline, but who would the Marlins have to send to the Orioles if they want Santander? I would start with JJ Bleday, Kameron Misner and Dax Fulton, and add a DSL player. If he stays healthy and has similar production to 2020, the price would go up. Thoughts?

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2021/01/what-to-do-about-the-dh.html

[LookinUp]

Has Bleday's stock fallen that much or do you think Santander's profile is pretty rich?

[Jammer7]

I'm a believer in Santander. I know he has had injury issues, and he needs to stay healthy. I really like the strides he made in his approach and swing decision making. He lowered his k rate from 21.2% to 15.2%. He showed maturity in his game and appears to have slowed the game down. I believe he is about to break out in a big way. A switch-hitting middle-of-the-order bat with plus RF defense and four more years of control is a very attractive package. No? And if the Marlins are interested in him, Kim Ng must agree.

Bleday has not played above A ball in 2019, 140 at bats in the Florida State League .257/.311/.379. The only knock on him is 40 speed. Everything else is above average or plus. 

 

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/marlins/jj-bleday-668709

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/anthony-santander/14551/stats?position=OF

[Sports Guy]

That’s a completely unrealistic proposal for Santander.  You should just say he’s untouchable.

[MurphDogg]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s a completely unrealistic proposal for Santander.  You should just say he’s untouchable.

Yeah, I'm not even positive you could get the rest of that package for Santander, let alone adding the 50-ish overall prospect.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Yeah, I'm not even positive you could get the rest of that package for Santander, let alone adding the 50-ish overall prospect.

I think you can get 1 top 10 guy (more in the 6-10 range) and another top 15 guy...maybe you could also add a lottery ticket DSL guy.  That’s about the most I would expect.

[MurphDogg]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I think you can get 1 top 10 guy (more in the 6-10 range) and another top 15 guy...maybe you could also add a lottery ticket DSL guy.  That’s about the most I would expect.

Right. That is the rest of the package. Misner and Fulton would probably both be in the 8-15 range in our farm system, which is about average. The Marlins system is quite good, but that doesn't mean that they would have to give up more than other teams.

Those two would be about what I would expect, not positive you could get it, but it wouldn't surprise me either way. Certainly couldn't get Bleday. 

[LookinUp]

If Elias is making him available, either he doesn't believe in the profile that you're projecting or he thinks others really do believe in it and he can get good value.

If Bleday is a 40 speed guy, he better hit better than he did in 2019. Still, he was a VERY highly regarded prospect for a time. I'd really be shocked if Santander nets that type of value unless that star has fizzled.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Right. That is the rest of the package. Misner and Fulton would probably both be in the 8-15 range in our farm system, which is about average. The Marlins system is quite good, but that doesn't mean that they would have to give up more than other teams.

Those two would be about what I would expect, not positive you could get it, but it wouldn't surprise me either way. Certainly couldn't get Bleday. 

Right..and btw, if they would trade Bleday for him, I would absolutely be convinced they think they are selling high and made a mistake drafting him.

[Jammer7]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s a completely unrealistic proposal for Santander.  You should just say he’s untouchable.

 

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think you can get 1 top 10 guy (more in the 6-10 range) and another top 15 guy...maybe you could also add a lottery ticket DSL guy.  That’s about the most I would expect.

Fair enough, that is why I said I would start there. To move him now, that is where I would start. His final stats for 2020 (.261/.315/.575) were a little deceiving in that he played several games with an abdominal strain. Prior to that, he was (.287/.333/.661) in the first half of the season. With a BABIP of .261, would you say he may have hit into some bad luck? 

Those prospects listed have no experience above A ball, and they are far from a sure thing. Misner has contact issues and Fulton is coming off TJ surgery. In mid-July, if Santander is healthy and picks up where he left off in 2020, I think that price is not far off at all. Healthy is a big factor, certainly. Perhaps Bleday is raking in AA and they just promote him to play RF. 

[Jammer7]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Right..and btw, if they would trade Bleday for him, I would absolutely be convinced they think they are selling high and made a mistake drafting him.

That could be. Or maybe they think they can compete in 2021 and need a legitimate RF. A young controllable Latin American star in that market makes sense. Bleday is maybe a mid 2022 guy, I think. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

 

Fair enough, that is why I said I would start there. To move him now, that is where I would start. His final stats for 2020 (.261/.315/.575) were a little deceiving in that he played several games with an abdominal strain. Prior to that, he was (.287/.333/.661) in the first half of the season. With a BABIP of .261, would you say he may have hit into some bad luck? 

Those prospects listed have no experience above A ball, and they are far from a sure thing. Misner has contact issues and Fulton is coming off TJ surgery. In mid-July, if Santander is healthy and picks up where he left off in 2020, I think that price is not far off at all. Healthy is a big factor, certainly. Perhaps Bleday is raking in AA and they just promote him to play RF. 

So his final stats were deceiving because of an injury yet you want to point out an even smaller sample size to act as if those aren’t deceiving?

I don’t see the logic there.

 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

That could be. Or maybe they think they can compete in 2021 and need a legitimate RF. A young controllable Latin American star in that market makes sense. Bleday is maybe a mid 2022 guy, I think. 

Just because they need that player...doesn’t mean they would trade a guy like that.

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

That could be. Or maybe they think they can compete in 2021 and need a legitimate RF. A young controllable Latin American star in that market makes sense. Bleday is maybe a mid 2022 guy, I think. 

Could mean dozens of more fans a game.

[Jammer7]

18 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

If Elias is making him available, either he doesn't believe in the profile that you're projecting or he thinks others really do believe in it and he can get good value.

If Bleday is a 40 speed guy, he better hit better than he did in 2019. Still, he was a VERY highly regarded prospect for a time. I'd really be shocked if Santander nets that type of value unless that star has fizzled.

That could be, sure. Or maybe Elias sees a good return for a guy that is going to get increasingly expensive before we are ready to compete for a playoff run. He wants to continue building the talent base. And he has Diaz knocking on the door, needing at bats. Perhaps they think Mullins is the CF and Hays belongs on a corner with Mountcastle. IDK. 

Ideally, I would like to keep Santander and build around him, unless I am convinced he is at his peek in value as you allude to. I think Kjerstad and Bleday are very similar players, I actually think Kjerstad is a little better athlete and better overall hitter. Bleday has a stronger arm.