Santander drawing interest

[Jammer7]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So his final stats were deceiving because of an injury yet you want to point out an even smaller sample size to act as if those aren’t deceiving?

I don’t see the logic there.

 

I realize that, and I am not expecting him to keep that first half up over 150 games. I was just pointing it out. It is intriguing to see what he may be capable of. We agree that he needs to stay healthy to see just what he is capable. I do see legitimate growth and maturity in his game. We'll see what he does. 

Perhaps the Marlins don't make a play for him. What other teams are in the market around the deadline? Perhaps my proposal was over the top for now. Just thought it was interesting and thought provoking. 

[Jammer7]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Could mean dozens of more fans a game.

That is a 25% increase in attendance in that market.

[LookinUp]

23 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

That could be, sure. Or maybe Elias sees a good return for a guy that is going to get increasingly expensive before we are ready to compete for a playoff run. He wants to continue building the talent base. And he has Diaz knocking on the door, needing at bats. Perhaps they think Mullins is the CF and Hays belongs on a corner with Mountcastle. IDK. 

Ideally, I would like to keep Santander and build around him, unless I am convinced he is at his peek in value as you allude to. I think Kjerstad and Bleday are very similar players, I actually think Kjerstad is a little better athlete and better overall hitter. Bleday has a stronger arm. 

I'm on the  fence about Santander mostly because I think he's good, but not great.

If Elias thinks like SG that Santander is relatively easily replaced, then I would also agree that he should be traded while his value is at its max. Whether that's now or at the All Star break is worth discussion. 

I personally don't think he'd be that easily replaced by our internal options unless/until we see real production from some of them. Kjerstad is the most likely, and he may prove within about 6-10 weeks that Santander is expendable. Diaz too, though I have less confidence in him. But that's my issue. If we don't have a replacement, I'd be willing to pay him during arb years because the team will be cheap and should be competitive for some of that time.

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'm on the  fence about Santander mostly because I think he's good, but not great.

If Elias thinks like SG that Santander is relatively easily replaced, then I would also agree that he should be traded while his value is at its max. Whether that's now or at the All Star break is worth discussion. 

I personally don't think he'd be that easily replaced by our internal options unless/until we see real production from some of them. Kjerstad is the most likely, and he may prove within about 6-10 weeks that Santander is expendable. Diaz too, though I have less confidence in him. But that's my issue. If we don't have a replacement, I'd be willing to pay him during arb years because the team will be cheap and should be competitive for some of that time.

I don’t understand what is meant by “easily replaced.”   Guys who are capable of being average or better major league starters don’t grow on trees, especially if we are talking about the subset of them that are under team control at sub-FA prices for several years.   It’s certainly possible to replace a guy like Santander, but I don’t think it’s that “easily” done.    That said, I’m perfectly willing to shop him so long as we are seeking a decent return.   

[Yardball85]

3 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

In Roch's blog this morning, he wrote about Santander being available for trade and drawing interest from the Marlins.

I would doubt he goes anywhere before the deadline, but who would the Marlins have to send to the Orioles if they want Santander? I would start with JJ Bleday, Kameron Misner and Dax Fulton, and add a DSL player. If he stays healthy and has similar production to 2020, the price would go up. Thoughts?

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2021/01/what-to-do-about-the-dh.html

I'd be pleasantly surprised if we could get Bleday, let alone Bleday plus, for Santander.  And I am a big Santander fan.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t understand what is meant by “easily replaced.”   Guys who are capable of being average or better major league starters don’t grow on trees, especially if we are talking about the subset of them that are under team control at sub-FA prices for several years.   It’s certainly possible to replace a guy like Santander, but I don’t think it’s that “easily” done.    That said, I’m perfectly willing to shop him so long as we are seeking a decent return.   

I hope that Kjerstad works as a Santander replacement.  If he doesn't that puts a real damper on last year's draft.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I hope that Kjerstad works as a Santander replacement.  If he doesn't that puts a real damper on last year's draft.

I agree wholeheartedly.   But Kjerstad certainly isn’t ready to replace Santander today, and it may take a year or so to get a good feel as to whether he’s the player we thought we were getting when we drafted him.   

For all I know, Diaz could be as good or better than Santander down the road, but I’m not counting on it.   
 

[Sports Guy]

49 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'm on the  fence about Santander mostly because I think he's good, but not great.

If Elias thinks like SG that Santander is relatively easily replaced, then I would also agree that he should be traded while his value is at its max. Whether that's now or at the All Star break is worth discussion. 

I personally don't think he'd be that easily replaced by our internal options unless/until we see real production from some of them. Kjerstad is the most likely, and he may prove within about 6-10 weeks that Santander is expendable. Diaz too, though I have less confidence in him. But that's my issue. If we don't have a replacement, I'd be willing to pay him during arb years because the team will be cheap and should be competitive for some of that time.

His production is relatively easy to replace.  It may not come immediately from RF but you can replace his production in the lineup.  
 

In other words, we could easily be a better offense in 2021 if we trade him but upgrade in other areas.

Long term, I think RF will be easy to replace him...hopefully with Kjerstad.

[wildcard]

If Santander was coming off a season where he hit 35 homers, drove in 120 RBI and had a 900 OPS over 160 games then I would think he was at peak value.   Not after playing 37 games and getting hurt.

[Ripken]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Could mean dozens of more fans a game.

Pretty sweet profit on $9 beer night.

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If Santander was coming off a season where he hit 35 homers, drove in 120 RBI and had a 900 OPS over 160 games then I would think he was at peak value.   Not after playing 37 games and getting hurt.

Whether he is at peak value now depends on how he does in the future.    He's certainly worth more today than he was at the end of 2019 or any previous season, I'd say.   Whether his value goes up or down from here depends on whether he shows that he can continue to play at his 2020 level (or close) and stay healthy.   So, if you are trying to determine the best time to trade him, it is a matter of whether you are willing to roll the dice on that.

It's worth remembering that 37 games is a very small sample size.

[Sports Guy]

Build around him?  Santander?  He isn’t even a core player.

[Philip]

3 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

I'm a believer in Santander. I know he has had injury issues, and he needs to stay healthy. I really like the strides he made in his approach and swing decision making. He lowered his k rate from 21.2% to 15.2%. He showed maturity in his game and appears to have slowed the game down. I believe he is about to break out in a big way. A switch-hitting middle-of-the-order bat with plus RF defense and four more years of control is a very attractive package. No? And if the Marlins are interested in him, Kim Ng must agree.

Bleday has not played above A ball in 2019, 140 at bats in the Florida State League .257/.311/.379. The only knock on him is 40 speed. Everything else is above average or plus. 

 

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/marlins/jj-bleday-668709

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/anthony-santander/14551/stats?position=OF

I have not read the other comments, but I agree with you about Anthony. I am also a believer. The problem is that I don’t think he’s demonstrated enough health for enough time that anybody else will be a believer as well. If we trade him now we are selling low. The Astros have lost Springer, I wonder if they would be interested, I know Cleveland is interested, but they seem to be blowing up the team. What about the Padres? Regardless, we’re not going to get As much now as we will be in July, provided he stays healthy.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Build around him?  Santander?  He isn’t even a core player.

How do you know he not a core player?

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

How do you know he not a core player?

Elias isn't gaming his service time.