Santander drawing interest

[ScGO's]

anyone else think this talk of deferring salary on Santandar's arbitration makes it seem more likely that he is traded now for a less than satisfying return? 

Its also starting to get really fishy financially.  I've worked in business, and this seems to be either A) prep for a sale or B) They owe some serious money like yesterday and they are doing everything they can from going bankrupt because they feel like the ship can be straightened if they get through this "loss" period.  I hope a sale of the team keeps the O's in Baltimore and has ownership that is willing to do more and better things than Anglelos.

[Sports Guy]

@Roll Tide He didn’t take 7.5M less than #2.  That was the slot money.  He accepted about 2M less but it was still more than he would have gotten if he went where people thought he would.

So, since this seems to be the basis of your poor argument, you really should come up with new material.

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

1) Yes ....but that doesn’t mean you know how they decided on Kjerstad internally. We know they wanted to overslot players later. The exact details can be speculated about but no one outside the organization can claim them as fact.

2) Yes ,...but again, The exact formula for why they like him over Martin or the Lacy in not known. We do know he accepted considerably less money than Martin wanted. And based on their signing bonuses with the teams that selected him it’s fair to assume who wanted fair slot value and who might have been willing to cut a deal. I think it’s fair to say that guys that signed for slot probably wanted slot at #2 as well. In my opinion, if you want a guy to sign for considerably less than slot you have to reach. 
 

3) Most scout sites agree....But, I’m not sure how this helps your argument. So was Torkleson and Martin. I’m not sure about the other hitters they passed on to get to Kjerstad. Also, I think the money issue is more conclusive.

4)Obviously there were more than just Martin that they didn’t want to pay number 2 money. Kjerstad accepted 7.5 million dollars less than #2 money. Why would he do that? We are talking a million or two that might make your argument more playable. It’s obvious they wanted to play the over slot game later. Because, that’s exactly what they did! 
 

5) I don’t think this proves anything! But, ok ....He was willing to accept 7.5 million less. 
 

6) Obviously! The scouting services are in the business of evaluating players. Obviously there are differing opinions, what’s your point? That you know better than them? Elias had $7.5 million dollars as a reason why he chose Kjerstad over the 8 or so other guys that most places had him rated.

Getting past how way wrong you are about the 7.5M thing...

 

Addressing your third point..Again, you aren’t following the conversation.  You asked what was a fact(and I gave you a list of facts)..I am telling you the facts.  The idea that he was an advanced college bat is why they liked him.  Were there others?  Sure..but they liked his bat as much or more than the rest of them.  If I had to guess, I would say something that transfers well is power and he has a ton of it.

Addressing your last point..no, I’m saying Elias knows more than them.  That should be obvious.

[Roll Tide]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

@Roll Tide He didn’t take 7.5M less than #2.  That was the slot money.  He accepted about 2M less but it was still more than he would have gotten if he went where people thought he would.

So, since this seems to be the basis of your poor argument, you really should come up with new material.

Yep it was 2.6 million...still a lot of money to give up for any prospect that may not make it. And most baseball prospects can fail and possibly never reach or only get a taste of the majors. I’m not saying he’s more likely to fail. It’s just I think if it was my son I’d want him to get at or near the money designated for the selection 

 

Quote

Kjerstad's signing bonus was reported by Jim Callis of MLB.com as $5.2 million, which is under the slot value of nearly $7.8 million for the No. 2 pick. There was widespread speculation during the first round of the MLB Draft that the Orioles and Kjerstad had reached a deal for under slot value that would give the team more money to spend on other picks.

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

Yep it was 2.6 million...still a lot of money to give up for any prospect that may not make it. And most baseball prospects can fail and possibly never reach or only get a taste of the majors. I’m not saying he’s more likely to fail. It’s just I think if it was my son I’d want him to get at or near the money designated for the selection 

 

 

So you'd tell your son to refuse the O's offer so he can get picked ninth?

Way to go dad!

[Roll Tide]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Getting past how way wrong you are about the 7.5M thing...

 

Addressing your third point..Again, you aren’t following the conversation.  You asked what was a fact(and I gave you a list of facts)..I am telling you the facts.  The idea that he was an advanced college bat is why they liked him.  Were there others?  Sure..but they liked his bat as much or more than the rest of them.  If I had to guess, I would say something that transfers well is power and he has a ton of it.

Addressing your last point..no, I’m saying Elias knows more than them.  That should be obvious.

So why did you need to say it twice.... He took 2 1/2 million less. In most circles that’s a lot of money. 
 

The problem is the don’t mean much in understanding the Orioles reasoning for doing it. Yes, I get they liked his bat....especially since they saved 2.6 million dollars. 
 

Let me put it this way..... Would they have said anything negative about anyone they selected at #2? If they did they’d obviously lose any credibility and it would be obvious that they passed on Martin due to money. Do you think they would’ve passed on Martin if he agreed to take 2.6 million less? If they truly selected what they viewed as the BPA, why would they not want to pay him slot money which is fair market value? Kjerstad accepted 2.6 million less because his people knew where he ranked and being the #2 pick is way more glamorous to the 8-12 range that he ranked in. 
 

 

[Roll Tide]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So you'd tell your son to refuse the O's offer so he can get picked ninth?

Way to go dad!

No .... I’d let the Orioles select him at #2 and then agree when they were close to slot value. 

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Yep it was 2.6 million...still a lot of money to give up for any prospect that may not make it. And most baseball prospects can fail and possibly never reach or only get a taste of the majors. I’m not saying he’s more likely to fail. It’s just I think if it was my son I’d want him to get at or near the money designated for the selection 

 

 

Kjerstad signed for the same area as the picks in the 7-10 range.  That was his projection.  The Os came to him and said, we will give you the same money as that but you go 2nd.  You know you are getting drafting and nothing weird happens with him falling or anything like that.  If your advice would be for him to say no to that, you would be giving awful advice.

On top that, it totally destroys your point that he took 7.5M less.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

No .... I’d let the Orioles select him at #2 and then agree when they were close to slot value. 

So you'd tell him to lie to the O's?

I'm confused here.  You have all the draft projections in front of you and you see that your son is projected to go ~9th.  So if the O's call and say we will pay him #7.5 money to go #2 you would tell your son to say yes and then change your demand?  Tell the O's up front to pay him 1-2 money?

Even if they actually had your son #1 on their board they'd tell you to pound sand.

Then you have your son, the senior, reentering the draft.

 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, ScGO's said:

anyone else think this talk of deferring salary on Santandar's arbitration makes it seem more likely that he is traded now for a less than satisfying return? 

Its also starting to get really fishy financially.  I've worked in business, and this seems to be either A) prep for a sale or B) They owe some serious money like yesterday and they are doing everything they can from going bankrupt because they feel like the ship can be straightened if they get through this "loss" period.  I hope a sale of the team keeps the O's in Baltimore and has ownership that is willing to do more and better things than Anglelos.

Could be the main reason he’s available. They need to hold the line on what they perceive of his value. Hurting the rebuild by giving away your assets is stupid. If Elias is being forced to cut payroll that’s just stupid and they need to sell the team now. If the Angelos family loves the Orioles they will do that if it’s really where they are financially 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Kjerstad signed for the same area as the picks in the 7-10 range.  That was his projection.  The Os came to him and said, we will give you the same money as that but you go 2nd.  You know you are getting drafting and nothing weird happens with him falling or anything like that.  If your advice would be for him to say no to that, you would be giving awful advice.

On top that, it totally destroys your point that he took 7.5M less.

His bonus ended up between slots seven and eight.

[Roll Tide]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Kjerstad signed for the same area as the picks in the 7-10 range.  That was his projection.  The Os came to him and said, we will give you the same money as that but you go 2nd.  You know you are getting drafting and nothing weird happens with him falling or anything like that.  If your advice would be for him to say no to that, you would be giving awful advice.

On top that, it totally destroys your point that he took 7.5M less.

No ... I’d let them draft him and then say that we discussed the matter with an advisor who said it was a bad decision. Sorry .,.but you need to pay fair value. 
 

You are so adamantly saying he was their best choice talent wise! Why would he deserve less money. Be a you understand that his real value was the 10th or so best talent 

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So why did you need to say it twice.... He took 2 1/2 million less. In most circles that’s a lot of money. 
 

The problem is the don’t mean much in understanding the Orioles reasoning for doing it. Yes, I get they liked his bat....especially since they saved 2.6 million dollars. 
 

Let me put it this way..... Would they have said anything negative about anyone they selected at #2? If they did they’d obviously lose any credibility and it would be obvious that they passed on Martin due to money. Do you think they would’ve passed on Martin if he agreed to take 2.6 million less? If they truly selected what they viewed as the BPA, why would they not want to pay him slot money which is fair market value? Kjerstad accepted 2.6 million less because his people knew where he ranked and being the #2 pick is way more glamorous to the 8-12 range that he ranked in. 
 

 

I never said they took BPA.  I don’t know how they ranked him.  What I do know is that they felt he was worthy of that pick and that he was a better value, along with else they could sign, vs signing Martin.  That is a fact and it’s very obvious.

You are hung up that he took less.  So what?  That happens every single draft.  Is Correa a bad player because he took less money?  Is he a failure?

And I don’t get what you mean about them saying negative stuff.  WTf does that have to do with anything?

And btw, it is obvious that they passed on Martin for money...but it’s also possible they liked Kjerstad more.  There was a lot of talk from people that Martin was just a second baseman with questionable power.    If Elias felt he wouldn’t play SS or CF and/or that his power wouldn’t play in the majors and that could effect his BA/OBP numbers, it’s very reasonable and smart not to pick him.  Personally, I’m glad they didn’t pick him.  Before the draft, I was hoping for a Veen.  I think his upside was the highest but I also recognize the risk of the college bat.  
 

If they were going to take a MIer, I would have rather had Gonzalez vs Martin I think but that would also depend on what scouts felt about his bat and how his stats were inflated playing in New Mexico.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

No ... I’d let them draft him and then say that we discussed the matter with an advisor who said it was a bad decision. Sorry .,.but you need to pay fair value. 
 

You are so adamantly saying he was their best choice talent wise! Why would he deserve less money. Be a you understand that his real value was the 10th or so best talent 

So you'd tell your son to negotiate in poor faith with the Orioles.

Classy.

Also, way to probably cost your son millions of dollars since if I'm the O's I happily pick 1-3 in 2021 while your son is a senior draftee with  zero leverage and a reputation for being untrustworthy.  (sorry if you are a mom and not a dad)

Edit- Also you will have royally pissed off your son's actual advisor by slandering them.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

No ... I’d let them draft him and then say that we discussed the matter with an advisor who said it was a bad decision. Sorry .,.but you need to pay fair value. 
 

You are so adamantly saying he was their best choice talent wise! Why would he deserve less money. Be a you understand that his real value was the 10th or so best talent 

Well, if that’s how you negotiated, you would have zero credibility and you would damage your sons future.  Sounds like a great move!

I NEVER said he was BPA for them.  Ever.  However, I do think it’s obvious they preferred him over other choices, outside of Martin.  I do agree that it’s possible other players said no to a below slot deal but I think that’s far fetched.  Even so, they very likely had all of these guys ranked extremely close, since everyone seemed to.  Getting one guy for that much less, allowing them to spend more later, was the right thing to do.  
 

FG had him as the 7th best talent.  Current BA rankings have all of these guys, except Martin, all ranked in the same area.  It’s a total crapshoot especially with no college season for the most part.  In other words, those rankings are largely irrelevant but you keep hanging onto irrelevant things and acting like one place ranking him 7th and another 10th means a damn thing.