Happy Birthday Adley

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

webbrick's way off base here, but by oWAR + dWAR Machado's career high was 8.0 in his age 22 season and he had 7.4 last year.

oWAR + dWAR does not = WAR.  There is a positional adjustment to oWAR and dWAR that is double-counted if you simply add the two numbers.   

That said, you are correct that Manny’s best rWAR year was his age 22 season.  His rWAR total that year was 7.5, not 8.0.  By fWAR, 2022 was Manny’s best year.  In any event, I think it’s fair to say Manny’s still in his prime, based on his excellent 2022 campaign.  
 

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Funny to look back at this post.   If Adley is past his peak, I’d love to see what his peak looked like!

Probably the college world series.  The O's are paying for his decline phase!

[ChosenOne21]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

oWAR + dWAR does not = WAR.  There is a positional adjustment to oWAR and dWAR that is double-counted if you simply add the two numbers.   

That said, you are correct that Manny’s best rWAR year was his age 22 season.  His rWAR total that year was 7.5, not 8.0.  By fWAR, 2022 was Manny’s best year.  In any event, I think it’s fair to say Manny’s still in his prime, based on his excellent 2022 campaign.  
 

Thanks! Couldn't remember the first letter of the other WAR variant and assumed it was o + d

[webbrick2010]

On 2/6/2023 at 8:27 PM, Frobby said:

Funny to look back at this post.   If Adley is past his peak, I’d love to see what his peak looked like!

I stand by my post.

My pick was CJ Abrams and I believe he will have a breakout year this year at the age of 22. 

Adley had a nice year but am I the only one expecting more for a 1-1 pick, I mean he hit .184 as a RH batter with 1 HR in 117 PA.

Will he have to be platooned? Is that a 1-1?

[Tony-OH]

37 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

I stand by my post.

My pick was CJ Abrams and I believe he will have a breakout year this year at the age of 22. 

Adley had a nice year but am I the only one expecting more for a 1-1 pick, I mean he hit .184 as a RH batter with 1 HR in 117 PA.

Will he have to be platooned? Is that a 1-1?

So wait, a guy who never had a platoon problem in the minors, doesn't hit well in his first 119 PAs against left-handers, and now he's a platoon risk? I guess you also are downplaying his defensive abilities at an up the middle position that doesn't change? 

I think we're a long ways off from calling him a platoon guy. Feel free to like who you like, but something tells me had the Orioles selected Abrams with the 1:1, you be asking "but am I the only one expecting more for a 1-1 pick, I mean he hit  .247/.280/.324/.604 with 5 BB to 50K ratio in 302 PAs."

By the way, the left-handed hitting Abrams hit .157/.185/.202/.387 with 0 walks and 21 K's in 92 PAs against lefties. No concerns over his platoon abilities?   

[webbrick2010]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

So wait, a guy who never had a platoon problem in the minors, doesn't hit well in his first 119 PAs against left-handers, and now he's a platoon risk? I guess you also are downplaying his defensive abilities at an up the middle position that doesn't change? 

I think we're a long ways off from calling him a platoon guy. Feel free to like who you like, but something tells me had the Orioles selected Abrams with the 1:1, you be asking "but am I the only one expecting more for a 1-1 pick, I mean he hit  .247/.280/.324/.604 with 5 BB to 50K ratio in 302 PAs."

By the way, the left-handed hitting Abrams hit .157/.185/.202/.387 with 0 walks and 21 K's in 92 PAs against lefties. No concerns over his platoon abilities?   

Abrams has a long way to go, will he get there? I don't know time will tell. Hopefully Adley fixes his splits and has a great career. 

[Tony-OH]

16 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Abrams has a long way to go, will he get there? I don't know time will tell. Hopefully Adley fixes his splits and has a great career. 

I guess you are going to just ignore my questions? You made statement about standing by your call of wanting Abrams and then questioning whether Adley would need to be platooned. So, are you concerned over Abrams's platoon differences? 

If you are going to make statements and question one player's abilities while liking another with even more of a pronounce issues in the very issue you bring up, you ought to answer the question.

Don't hide from the question. You can answer, "just because I think he will" and that's fine, but this is the Hangout. You should clearly state that this is your opinion devoid of facts or reason or just a gut feeling, but don't try and point out a guy's issue when liking another guy who is worse in the exact issue you brought up!

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

Abrams has a long way to go, will he get there? I don't know time will tell. Hopefully Adley fixes his splits and has a great career. 

I like Abrams.  He didn’t hit much as a rookie, but he limited the strikeouts (50 in 302 PA).  I wouldn’t have taken him over Adley then or now, but he has a chance to be a very good player IMO.   

As to Adley, his MiL splits vs. LHP were good (over 1.000 OPS), so I’m not going to worry much about his 2022 struggle in that regard unless it repeats itself for a much longer period.  Whatever limitations he had, 5.2 rWAR/5.3 fWAR in 3/4 of a season is incredibly impressive.  
 

[webbrick2010]

17 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I guess you are going to just ignore my questions? You made statement about standing by your call of wanting Abrams and then questioning whether Adley would need to be platooned. So, are you concerned over Abrams's platoon differences? 

If you are going to make statements and question one player's abilities while liking another with even more of a pronounce issues in the very issue you bring up, you ought to answer the question.

Don't hide from the question. You can answer, "just because I think he will" and that's fine, but this is the Hangout. You should clearly state that this is your opinion devoid of facts or reason or just a gut feeling, but don't try and point out a guy's issue when liking another guy who is worse in the exact issue you brought up!

Okay

Of course there is concern about CJ's hitting, but he is extremely young, he is playing in the majors at an age when Adley was playing in college.

Struggling at 21 is different than struggling at 24 1/2.

And there are no "facts" in projecting what a first year player will develop into, it is of course opinion.

Bottom line I prefer going after a player that has potential to play 155 games a year of GG level defense at SS with elite speed over a 120 game a year cacther that is entering his first full season at age 25, which is considerable older than any recent MVP level talent has entered the majors.

And history will probably say that Mike Elias and I got it wrong and Bobby Witt JR will turn out to be the obvious choice at 1-1 in the 2019 draft.

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Okay

Of course there is concern about CJ's hitting, but he is extremely young, he is playing in the majors at an age when Adley was playing in college.

Struggling at 21 is different than struggling at 24 1/2.

And there are no "facts" in projecting what a first year player will develop into, it is of course opinion.

Bottom line I prefer going after a player that has potential to play 155 games a year of GG level defense at SS with elite speed over a 120 game a year cacther that is entering his first full season at age 25, which is considerable older than any recent MVP level talent has entered the majors.

And history will probably say that Mike Elias and I got it wrong and Bobby Witt JR will turn out to be the obvious choice at 1-1 in the 2019 draft.

 

 

 

 

Aaron Judge was ...wait for it....25 when he won Rookie of the Year.

That was way back in 2017.

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

 

Struggling at 21 is different than struggling at 24 1/2.

First, I need to call you out on something small.  The statement above makes it sound like Adley is 3-1/2 years older than Abrams.  In fact, he’s about 2.7 years older.   So, you’ve exaggerated the age difference.  

The bigger thing, of course, is that Adley didn’t struggle except in his first few weeks.   He was worth 5.2 rWAR/5.3 fWAR, finished 2nd in the Rookie of the Year voting, and totally ignited his team.  

At this point, we don’t know if Abrams will ever have a season as good as Adley’s rookie year.  Honestly, the odds are that he won’t.   Only a small percentage of players ever have a 5 WAR season.  But truthfully, I think it’s possible he will, and I hope he does.  It’s also possible that Adley will have a string of 7-8 WAR seasons.  Based on last year, that’s not far-fetched at all.  

 

[LTO's]

39 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Bottom line I prefer going after a player that has potential to play 155 games a year of GG level defense at SS with elite speed over a 120 game a year cacther that is entering his first full season at age 25, which is considerable older than any recent MVP level talent has entered the majors.

CJ Abrams does not have the potential to be a GG level SS. Of all your highly questionable statements, this might be the worst. 

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, LTO's said:

CJ Abrams does not have the potential to be a GG level SS. Of all your highly questionable statements, this might be the worst. 

True, his defensive rep isn’t great.  Last year Longenhagen gave him 35/45 for fielding and 45 for arm, commenting that “On defense, Abrams’ hands, actions, and arm accuracy are all below average.”  Doesn’t sound like a potential Gold Glover.   https://blogs.fangraphs.com/san-diego-padres-top-35-prospects-2022/

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

True, his defensive rep isn’t great.  Last year Longenhagen gave him 35/45 for fielding and 45 for arm, commenting that “On defense, Abrams’ hands, actions, and arm accuracy are all below average.”  Doesn’t sound like a potential Gold Glover.   https://blogs.fangraphs.com/san-diego-padres-top-35-prospects-2022/

If a 36 year old Jeter could win one, who isn't a candidate?

[OriolesMagic83]

So sad we'll never see peak Adley.  I can only imagine how good Adley used to be.