Should Adley Rutschman play in the majors in 2021?

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 hour ago, andrewochs615 said:

you would be just wasting his prime in the minors

On a team that isn't even going to sniff .500 in 2021?

This year is going to be "wasted" regardless of where AR plays, might as well give him some extra development time in AA/AAA and let Severino and/or Sisco try to build up some trade value until mid-late July before starting his service clock.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

On a team that isn't even going to sniff .500 in 2021?

This year is going to be "wasted" regardless of where AR plays, might as well give him some extra development time in AA/AAA and let Severino and/or Sisco try to build up some trade value until mid-late July before starting his service clock.

You mean might as well delay his free agency.

This isn't about getting him more development time.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not even a question.  Cant believe that even needs to be said.

So you think there is no question Rutschman would be better than both Severino and Sisco this year? I regard that as more probable than not, given his pedigree, but I certainly wouldn’t say there’s no question.   

[foxfield]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Odd choice of quote to use while coming at me for something else entirely but OK.

The question is what should happen.  To me the answer is obvious , what should be done is what is best for the player.  In this case any learning curve issues AR would have would be happening in a non-competitive season so the team isn't going to suffer.  Does anyone think that that AR can't outperform the catchers the O's are currently going to use in 2021?

So for the catching into the ground comment, it wasn't meant literally.  It's a catchy ...get it?...way to express the idea that the O's should be concerned with maximizing the value they get from the player for the six season in which they have control.  I'm not suggesting they catch him 150 games a year. 

My guess is if you tell Adley he can either start 2021 in the majors but he will be subject to a heavy catching workload for six seasons or he can make his debut after the super 2 cutoff in 2022 and spend time at first base he'll take the former.

 

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

A two year delay in his free agency could cost him tens of millions of dollars.

Would you agree that their are things he can learn in the majors that he can't learn in AA/AAA?

Is there anything he can learn in AA/AAA that he can't learn in the majors?

 

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do you think AR learning on the job is going to cost them games over Sisco and Severino?

I don't.  I think his defense and raw power alone indicate he'd be more valuable.

The bold is correct.  And the rest I think is more suspect.  The problem is that you are assuming the O's are hurting him by keeping him down, and that is simply not true or at the least highly debatable. And they are doing it for money which may be a factor, but again, given that his current age and position don't really require gaming..

I think the Orioles are likely doing what is in AR's best interest.  He will start in ML and get some work and will be up as soon as he is ready to take the job.  He will undoubtedly learn both in ML and MLB, but starting down in ML gives him a chance to get games without the pressure of being front and center.  

There are plenty of times players are held down to game control, I just don't see this as being a real example.  But years of O's experience may make you see it differently.  I understand that as well.

[Can_of_corn]

I'll say that there is a high degree of probability that even a one year delay in free agency would constitute "hurting him". 

I don't think being the starting catcher on a last place club in the laid back media market that is Baltimore counts as being a high pressure situation.

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'll say that there is a high degree of probability that even a one year delay in free agency would constitute "hurting him". 

I don't think being the starting catcher on a last place club in the laid back media market that is Baltimore counts as being a high pressure situation.

In fact, breaking him this year when you don’t care if you win is a great scenario.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

You mean might as well delay his free agency.

This isn't about getting him more development time.

To you, sure, it's about delaying his free agency and absolutely nothing else.

To me though, it's a combination of multiple factors- development time in the high minors, a few months of playing time for Severino and/or Sisco to audition for teams in the playoff hunt that might have a need/want at catcher at the trade deadline, and yes, service time, of course- but his free agency will happen at exactly the same time regardless of whether he's up at the end of April or the end of July or September 1st (unless he gets demoted for inexcusably poor performance at some point, which would probably make service time the least of his or our worries). 

[Can_of_corn]

20 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

To you, sure, it's about delaying his free agency and absolutely nothing else.

To me though, it's a combination of multiple factors- development time in the high minors, a few months of playing time for Severino and/or Sisco to audition for teams in the playoff hunt that might have a need/want at catcher at the trade deadline, and yes, service time, of course- but his free agency will happen at exactly the same time regardless of whether he's up at the end of April or the end of July or September 1st (unless he gets demoted for inexcusably poor performance at some point, which would probably make service time the least of his or our worries). 

You don't think other teams have a pretty good idea of what Sisco and Severino are already?

And yes, if they bring him up in late April or September his free agency doesn't change.  But his arbitration status does.  It also changes if they bring him up to start the year or wait until the end of April in 2022.

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

41 minutes ago, foxfield said:

There are plenty of times players are held down to game control, I just don't see this as being a real example.

The dude has a .774 OPS in ~150 professional PAs, none of which occurred higher than A ball and all of which occurred well over a year ago. All of this intense hand-wringing about him being unjustly held back by a greedy FO that only cares about getting an extra year of control over him just seems bizarre to me (and kind of a little silly), especially when we currently have Severino and Sisco on the roster. 

I mean, it's not like we have Taylor Teagarden penciled in as the OD starter with Eli Whiteside and Geronimo Gil duking it out in ST to see who gets to be the backup.

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You don't think other teams have a pretty good idea of what Sisco and Severino are already?

Sisco is a former 2nd round pick who has demonstrated pretty good on-base skills so far in his MLB career (55 BBs in 525 PAs and a .330 OBP despite an anemic .205 career BA), and he hasn't even turned 26 yet.

Severino is a 27 year old that has out-produced the MLB average for offense by catchers in both of the last 2 seasons.

I don't think it's too crazy to think that at least one of them could take a step forward in 2021 and net something of potential future value from a team in the playoff hunt in July, especially when they both have multiple years of control remaining. One of them will almost certainly need to go when AR eventually arrives anyway, so why not try get something of value out of it? And if we're trying to get something out of it, why not try to maximize the value of that something? 

 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

The dude has a .774 OPS in ~150 professional PAs, none of which occurred higher than A ball and all of which occurred well over a year ago. All of this intense hand-wringing about him being unjustly held back by a greedy FO that only cares about getting an extra year of control over him just seems bizarre to me (and kind of a little silly), especially when we currently have Severino and Sisco on the roster. 

I mean, it's not like we have Taylor Teagarden penciled in as the OD starter with Eli Whiteside and Geronimo Gil duking it out in ST to see who gets to be the backup.

Sisco is a former 2nd round pick who has demonstrated pretty good on-base skills so far in his MLB career (55 BBs in 525 PAs and a .330 OBP despite an anemic .205 career BA), and he hasn't even turned 26 yet.

Severino is a 27 year old that has out-produced the MLB average for offense by catchers in both of the last 2 seasons.

I don't think it's too crazy to think that at least one of them could take a step forward in 2021 and net something of potential future value from a team in the playoff hunt in July, especially when they both have multiple years of control remaining. One of them will almost certainly need to go when AR eventually arrives anyway, so why not try get something of value out of it? And if we're trying to get something out of it, why not try to maximize the value of that something? 

 

Oh I agree that a team might give up something for one of them.  I just don't think it's likely that folks opinions of either of them will change much while Adley is in the minors.  I think what you get April 30 is pretty much what you get July 30 is pretty much what you get March 20.

[Sports Guy]

Yea, there should be zero consideration on holding down Adley because of the trade value of 2 players who aren’t that good.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

48 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Oh I agree that a team might give up something for one of them.  I just don't think it's likely that folks opinions of either of them will change much while Adley is in the minors.  I think what you get April 30 is pretty much what you get July 30 is pretty much what you get March 20.

If one of them looks like they've taken a legitimate, sustainable step forward at the plate this year, who knows? 

Plus, sometimes teams in playoff races get desperate and do extremely silly things like trade one of their 3-5 best pitching prospects/8-10 best overall prospects for 3 months of an OF that OPS'd an uninspriring .709 over the prior 3 seasons that's currently riding an unsustainable .372 BABIP to an .886 OPS after posting a BABIP of .310 over those same 3 previous seasons.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

If one of them looks like they've taken a legitimate, sustainable step forward at the plate this year, who knows? 

Plus, sometimes teams in playoff races get desperate and do extremely silly things like trade one of their 3-5 best pitching prospects/8-10 best overall prospects for 3 months of an OF that OPS'd an uninspriring .709 over the prior 3 seasons that's currently riding an unsustainable .372 BABIP to an .886 OPS after posting a BABIP of .310 over those same 3 previous seasons.

Good luck finding a GM that stupid.  Anyone would make a move like that wouldn't be in the position much longer.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, there should be zero consideration on holding down Adley because of the trade value of 2 players who aren’t that good.

Cool strawman, bro  

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Anyone would make a move like that wouldn't be in the position much longer.

Hey, Danny Boy had another 3.5 years here after that.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Cool strawman, bro  

Hey, Danny Boy had another 3.5 years here after that.

No strawman.  It’s your argument and it’s a bad one.

Those players have no bearing on what you do with Adley.  They aren’t going to bring you back anything that really matters.  You may get a lottery ticket but you could get that at any point, as CoC said.