Spring Training Stat: The Elephant in the Room

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

Okay.

What a joy it is to have you back on the board once again. 

Thank you!

I don’t get why you are so upset by the response.  Mancini had cancer. He went through a lot over the past year.  Getting back his strength, skills set, etc..could be a challenge.

That should all be obvious and it’s obvious why the thread is about him and not someone else.

I agree it’s dumb and I made a comment to that effect early in the thread but what the thread is about and why it is singling out Trey are 2 different things.  
 

 

[Beef Supreme]

2 hours ago, interloper said:

When you start a thread "I know, I know, spring training stats mean nothing, but...", you should stop writing that thread. Especially if you're going to cherry pick one guy who is actually hitting pretty well compared to his peers. LOL 

I like you, interloper. But regarding "cherry-picking," I have not excluded any post-cancer results. And how other players are doing has nothing to do with Mancini's progress; not including other players' stats does not fit the definition of "cherry-picking." However, you have ignored the crux of my OP by cherry-picking the set up of my question (my OP is not arguing a position). Since I get the feeling you shut down and stopped reading, here is the condensed version:

Quote

(S)ometimes (Spring training stats) do show us something. (I)f Mancini isn't quite fully back up to the strength ... it might be in his best interest as well as the team's best interest to start the season on the DL. And that might be a good thing for the Orioles as they figure out whom to plan their near future on among their OF/1B/DH options.

Doubt Mike Elias thinks this is "dumb," as you call it. Fact is, his 2021 ST stats look almost identical to his 2020 ST stats (14 PAs, 4 singles, zero extra base hits .286/.286/.286), so far. I never claimed that the front office is convinced that 2020's .300/.318/.300 is proof he hasn't regained the necessary strength to begin the year in Baltimore, but it's unlikely they are dismissing the absence of extra base hits out of hand. Possibly, they are asking themselves the same question I asked: Is he ready now or does he need more time? 

You can bet Trey is under Elias' microscope. I expect they are closely monitoring his weight sessions, but even if they look comparable strength-wise, the endurance may still need time to reach previous levels. For a veteran who has performed to a high level in the recent past, he is probably the exception to the rule as far as the Orioles continuing to evaluate his performance to see whether he starts the year on the DL or on the roster. Maybe even they don't know the answer to that question yet.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Beef Supreme said:

I like you, interloper. But regarding "cherry-picking," I have not excluded any post-cancer results. And how other players are doing has nothing to do with Mancini's progress; not including other players' stats does not fit the definition of "cherry-picking." However, you have ignored the crux of my OP by cherry-picking the set up of my question (my OP is not arguing a position). Since I get the feeling you shut down and stopped reading, here is the condensed version:

Doubt Mike Elias thinks this is "dumb," as you call it. Fact is, his 2021 ST stats look almost identical to his 2020 ST stats (14 PAs, 4 singles, zero extra base hits .286/.286/.286), so far. I never claimed that the front office is convinced that 2020's .300/.318/.300 is proof he hasn't regained the necessary strength to begin the year in Baltimore, but it's unlikely they are dismissing the absence of extra base hits out of hand. Possibly, they are asking themselves the same question I asked: Is he ready now or does he need more time? 

You can bet Trey is under Elias' microscope. I expect they are closely monitoring his weight sessions, but even if they look comparable strength-wise, the endurance may still need time to reach previous levels. For a veteran who has performed to a high level in the recent past, he is probably the exception to the rule as far as the Orioles continuing to evaluate his performance to see whether he starts the year on the DL or on the roster. Maybe even they don't know the answer to that question yet.

There haven't been any reports about him being held out of practice, being held out of games etc, in regards to his endurance.  I'm sure those things are being closely monitored but I don't see why he can't be ready to begin the year in Baltimore.  

I really don't think there's much here to worry about.  As I said before, you can probably find stretches for just about anyone that's played long enough where they went without extra base hits.  

[Philip]

I haven’t checked stats, but Beef’s question is legit and worth considering in depth.

The worry is lack of power. I think that will return. But what about average? Is he seeing the ball as well as usual? Running as well as usual? Is he in the cage for as many swings as usual?

I don’t know those answers, I’ve been looking at the whole team being Lousy, and focusing most happily on the pitching. But wondering if Mancini’s condition will cause lingering problems is a pretty reasonable question.

However, there are more pressing questions for now, such was the malarkey from Elias that Ruiz remains his 3B, as someone wrote above. Ummmm then why did we hire Franco?

[Frobby]

22 PA is not enough to be concerned over, especially since he’s making solid contact.    I’ll worry about it if it’s May and his ISO is under .100.    

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, interloper said:

Dumb thread is dumb, sorry.

Why isn't this thread about Santander (0 HR) or Mountcastle (0 HR) or Pedro Severino (1 hit, 0 HR) or Sisco (0 HR)?

 

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Because they didn’t just survive cancer?

Not sure why it's a dumb thread. Mancini is coming off a missed season and undergoing treatment for cancer. The fact that he is a power hitter and has no extra base hits is something to keep an eye on. 

I haven't been able to watch his BPs this year so I can't tell his overall strength, but I'm not sure why it's not worth a thread wondering if his strength has recovered or not. The OP did not make any grand proclamations, predictions or concerns over the Orioles chances to compete if Mancini's power numbers are down, but just started the conversation. 

Sometimes I think some of you just are looking for a way to jump on someone for starting a conversation when that's what this board is for. As always, if you don't like the thread, you can just skip it and move on.

As for the question at hand, yes, I've noticed Mancini has no extra base hits and up until the other day, neither did Santander and I believe I actually mentioned that at some point when discussing how the team hasn't hit very much tis spring barring a few players.

While I'd like to see some extra base hits start to come over the second half of the spring, I'll be concerned if we're 14 or so games into the 2021 regular season and he still doesn't have an extra base hit. Either way, Mancni is going to get a long leash this season and I've been happy to see him at least getting some consistent knocks so far.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

 

Not sure why it's a dumb thread. Mancini is coming off a missed season and undergoing treatment for cancer. The fact that he is a power hitter and has no extra base hits is something to keep an eye on. 

I haven't been able to watch his BPs this year so I can't tell his overall strength, but I'm not sure why it's not worth a thread wondering if his strength has recovered or not. The OP did not make any grand proclamations, predictions or concerns over the Orioles chances to compete if Mancini's power numbers are down, but just started the conversation. 

Sometimes I think some of you just are looking for a way to jump on someone for starting a conversation when that's what this board is for. As always, if you don't like the thread, you can just skip it and move on.

As for the question at hand, yes, I've noticed Mancini has no extra base hits and up until the other day, neither did Santander and I believe I actually mentioned that at some point when discussing how the team hasn't hit very much tis spring barring a few players.

While I'd like to see some extra base hits start to come over the second half of the spring, I'll be concerned if we're 14 or so games into the 2021 regular season and he still doesn't have an extra base hit. Either way, Mancni is going to get a long leash this season and I've been happy to see him at least getting some consistent knocks so far.

It’s obviously something worth watching..don’t see why it’s worth watching because it hasn’t happened in a SSS of ST at bats though and, to me, that’s what the OP is saying.  
 

Obviously his overall health and how he comes back is a storyline for the season.

[interloper]

29 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

 

Not sure why it's a dumb thread. Mancini is coming off a missed season and undergoing treatment for cancer. The fact that he is a power hitter and has no extra base hits is something to keep an eye on. 

I haven't been able to watch his BPs this year so I can't tell his overall strength, but I'm not sure why it's not worth a thread wondering if his strength has recovered or not. The OP did not make any grand proclamations, predictions or concerns over the Orioles chances to compete if Mancini's power numbers are down, but just started the conversation. 

Sometimes I think some of you just are looking for a way to jump on someone for starting a conversation when that's what this board is for. As always, if you don't like the thread, you can just skip it and move on.

As for the question at hand, yes, I've noticed Mancini has no extra base hits and up until the other day, neither did Santander and I believe I actually mentioned that at some point when discussing how the team hasn't hit very much tis spring barring a few players.

While I'd like to see some extra base hits start to come over the second half of the spring, I'll be concerned if we're 14 or so games into the 2021 regular season and he still doesn't have an extra base hit. Either way, Mancni is going to get a long leash this season and I've been happy to see him at least getting some consistent knocks so far.

Exactly, so the thread is pointless. If folks already weren't expecting less power from Mancini this season, then they're out of their minds in the first place. The fact that he has been hitting for average this spring is, IMO, in fact a really good sign that he's still got his timing. The power will come. As we assume it will come for the countless other guys not hitting for power this spring.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. 

[LTO's]

22 minutes ago, interloper said:

The power will come. As we assume it will come for the countless other guys not hitting for power this spring.

The Orioles posted a video of him Mic'd up where he took Issac Mattson deep in live BP. I don't really find that result to be any more or less significant than hitting one in a meaningless spring training game. It's not like he's barely making it out of the infield in BP. He's stung a few balls this spring as has Santander. Fluky stuff happens in small samples especially when you're not getting ABs every day. This thread may possibly be meaningful in May but I too find it odd to be discussing it now. 

[SteveA]

33 minutes ago, LTO's said:

The Orioles posted a video of him Mic'd up where he took Issac Mattson deep in live BP. I don't really find that result to be any more or less significant than hitting one in a meaningless spring training game. It's not like he's barely making it out of the infield in BP. He's stung a few balls this spring as has Santander. Fluky stuff happens in small samples especially when you're not getting ABs every day. This thread may possibly be meaningful in May but I too find it odd to be discussing it now. 

Part of the problem is that spring training is kind of happening in a vacuum.   MASN isn't televising any games, at least so far.   Only a few have been on the radio.   Guys like Roch are covering the team from Maryland so all they can do is print information from zoom interviews and stuff that is spoonfed.   They aren't watching the game even to the point of being able to say "this guy  hit some really hard balls that were caught".   And they certainly aren't there for pregame workouts and batting practice as they have been in the fast.   Neither are fans.

Compared to normal spring trainings, it's like it's happening on another planet and our window into what is going on is much smaller.  

So we are left to our own devices to speculate wildly about what's going on.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Now 1/1 with a 5.000 OPS in his last 1 PAs

[LTO's]

Pointless thread.

[Frobby]

The elephant just left the building!

[yark14]

Trey is going to kick a lot of ass this season.  He's the Oriole I am least concerned about this year.

[Moose Milligan]

I agree.  Glad to see him hit a homer and usher out whatever pachyderm was in the room.

He's gonna be fine.