BA's Orioles top 10 list is coming Wednesday

[slappy12]

There's 2 players on that list that don't belong, other than that it's a strong list. Patton and Mickolio are the 2 players that don't belong. I would slip Britton and Hernandez in their places.

[Frobby]

There's 2 players on that list that don't belong, other than that it's a strong list. Patton and Mickolio are the 2 players that don't belong. I would slip Britton and Hernandez in their places.

Patton belongs if he's healthy. He easily would have been in our top 5 a year ago if he had been traded before BA made their list.

[tywright]

Does anybody have a BA subscription? We're going to need some chat tidbits, which starts at 3.

[jamesenoch]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2009/267134.html

What BA had to say about Mickolio :

Strengths: Think Bobby Jenks, a big guy who came out of the wilderness with pure power stuff, only bigger. Mickolio is not subtle, reaching 96-97 mph with his fastball from an unorthodox crossfire delivery, and complementing it with a slider that's a well above-average pitch when it's on.

Weaknesses: Mickolio's delivery is all over the place, and the Orioles have worked on several tweaks to give him something more balanced and repeatable. They won't try a major overhaul because they don't want him to lose his arm speed or risk injury. His slider is at its best about one out of three outings, and his changeup and slurve aren't effective yet.

The Future: If Baltimore is patient with Mickolio and gives him time to develop, he has the stuff to set up or close in the big leagues. He could use more seasoning in Triple-A, but his arm will be mighty tempting to the big league staff.

[Mackus]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2009/267134.html

What BA had to say about Mickolio :

Strengths: Think Bobby Jenks, a big guy who came out of the wilderness with pure power stuff, only bigger. Mickolio is not subtle, reaching 96-97 mph with his fastball from an unorthodox crossfire delivery, and complementing it with a slider that's a well above-average pitch when it's on.

Weaknesses: Mickolio's delivery is all over the place, and the Orioles have worked on several tweaks to give him something more balanced and repeatable. They won't try a major overhaul because they don't want him to lose his arm speed or risk injury. His slider is at its best about one out of three outings, and his changeup and slurve aren't effective yet.

The Future: If Baltimore is patient with Mickolio and gives him time to develop, he has the stuff to set up or close in the big leagues. He could use more seasoning in Triple-A, but his arm will be mighty tempting to the big league staff.

I don't disagree with any of their analysis on Mickolio, his stuff, and his ceiling and likelihood of reaching it.

Where I think they are wrong is that we don't have 10 guys who have a better combination of upside and potential of reaching it than him.

[slappy12]

Patton belongs if he's healthy. He easily would have been in our top 5 a year ago if he had been traded before BA made their list.

Oh I totally agree!! But he's not and like wildcard said:

Looks like a huge if there. It a little early to be talking about him being any where close to where he was.

The top 10 prospect is a snap shot in time taken now. If Patton improves he could be in the list next spring or summer

Also Mickolio at 10 is just plain silly and I look at all our lists including Tony's and he's not even close to top 10. I'm not saying we're experts but I don't know what they see in Mickolio to place him in the 10th spot. That loses creditablity to me.

[orioole28]

I don't disagree with any of their analysis on Mickolio, his stuff, and his ceiling and likelihood of reaching it.

Where I think they are wrong is that we don't have 10 guys who have a better combination of upside and potential of reaching it than him.

I know this might be strange coming from me, but if they decided today to have Hernandez become a reliever(set-up/closer), in my eyes his potential is better than Mickolio. My reasoning would be that Hernandez's fastball would raise a tick or 2 and he currently has a better slider than Mickolio, therefore the better potential. This Mickolio at 10 is very puzzling to me.

[Frobby]

I know this might be strange coming from me, but if they decided today to have Hernandez become a reliever(set-up/closer), in my eyes his potential is better than Mickolio. My reasoning would be that Hernandez's fastball would raise a tick or 2 and he currently has a better slider than Mickolio, therefore the better potential. This Mickolio at 10 is very puzzling to me.

I agree with you, though at this point I've never seen Hernandez pitch, whereas I've now seen Mickolio a few times.

[Mackus]

I know this might be strange coming from me, but if they decided today to have Hernandez become a reliever(set-up/closer), in my eyes his potential is better than Mickolio. My reasoning would be that Hernandez's fastball would raise a tick or 2 and he currently has a better slider than Mickolio, therefore the better potential. This Mickolio at 10 is very puzzling to me.

I agree, switch Hernandez to a reliever right now and he's a more promising prospect than Mickolio (although lower than he currently is now, IMO). I think they'd have similar fastballs but Hernandez second pitch (and possibly third if he throws 3 as a reliever) would put him ahead.

[Frobby]

Patton belongs if he's healthy. He easily would have been in our top 5 a year ago if he had been traded before BA made their list.

Oh I totally agree!! But he's not

Well, the press reports on his health (including Tony's recent "plus members only" article on the instructional league) were certainly encouraging, and perhaps the O's organization has given BA more information that is available to the public about how he is coming along.

[jamesenoch]

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=23428

From ESPN's Chat with Jim Callis of BA :

James (North East, MD): I know I am asking for a premature evaluation (ha ha), but how do the Orioles' Top 10 compare to the other teams in baseball.

Jim Callis: (2:42 PM ET ) Good start with Wieters, Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, then it starts to peter out pretty quickly. Their Top 10 probably ranks in the middle of the pack. I haven't tried to stack them all up yet.

Kinda of disappointed in that. I would have thought that our Top 10, was well, one of the Top 10 in baseball.

[Crazysilver03]

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=23428

From ESPN's Chat with Jim Callis of BA :

James (North East, MD): I know I am asking for a premature evaluation (ha ha), but how do the Orioles' Top 10 compare to the other teams in baseball.

Jim Callis: (2:42 PM ET ) Good start with Wieters, Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, then it starts to peter out pretty quickly. Their Top 10 probably ranks in the middle of the pack. I haven't tried to stack them all up yet.

Kinda of disappointed in that. I would have thought that our Top 10, was well, one of the Top 10 in baseball.

Well one of the caveats is that we have an amazing top four, most likely Top 10 when comparing other Top 4s because Wieters is a super-prospect and the other three are close to the majors.

Also, consider that Wieters, Tillman, Reimold, Patton, and Mickolio will most likely start at AAA (for the sake of the argument). Arrieta, Snyder, and Erbe will start at AA. Matusz and Rowell are the only two on the list to start in A+.

That is a major increase for us in years past where most of our prospects would start the following year at AA or A. Most of ours will start in the majors or at AAA or AA and one of our two to start in single-A (Matusz) still has a chance to be on the major league roster come September 2009 or April 2010 with a good season.

[rhall]

Patton belongs if he's healthy. He easily would have been in our top 5 a year ago if he had been traded before BA made their list.

He was traded for before BA released their Prospect Handbook (isn't that same list that is being released online - only with the top 30?). BA ranked him #3 in the O's system last year, before the injury. If all reports point to him being healthy, it's not hard to see why BA put him in the top 10.

[rhall]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/chat/chat.php?id=2008110501&rnd=1

Q: Otto from DC asks:

Did Hoes and Avery crack your 11-20 range? What are your thoughts on them?

A: Will Lingo: Those guys will certainly be in that neighborhood and got some consideration for the top 10. In past years, they would have been welcome additions to an O's top 10 list. I would say Avery probably has a higher ceiling, while Hoes is a little more advanced as a hitter at this point. Avery is a great athlete with great hands, and the Orioles think he can be a .300 hitter with power down the road. Hoes already swings the bat well and shows a knack for using the whole field, so his big challenge will be learning to play second base.

[Sports Guy]

I know this might be strange coming from me, but if they decided today to have Hernandez become a reliever(set-up/closer), in my eyes his potential is better than Mickolio. My reasoning would be that Hernandez's fastball would raise a tick or 2 and he currently has a better slider than Mickolio, therefore the better potential. This Mickolio at 10 is very puzzling to me.

Yep...Hernandez should not only be ahead of Mickolio, he should be way ahead of him.