Jim Callis parses the rumors about the Orioles’ draft strategy

[Frobby]

“To me, there is a tier of about eight guys in that top group. Not everyone at the top likes all eight players. You have to try and parse what can happen. With the Orioles, you hear so many different things. I’ve heard they are going to go college. I’ve heard Mike Elias is out seeing and scouting Brady House and Kahlil Watson, like they are all over the high school guys. I’ve heard they will cut a deal - a lot of teams think that they may cut a deal (sign someone underslot) like they did last year with Heston Kjerstad at No. 2 and try to save a significant amount money at five and spend it later in the draft.

“So I don’t really know which one of those to believe and I don’t think any one of those is set in stone.”

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2021/06/feeling-a-draft-jim-callis-on-the-os-at-no-5.html

Lots of other stuff in the article about who the O’s might take.

 

[Can_of_corn]

I don't think it's possible to save a significant amount of money at five.

[Jammer7]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think it's possible to save a significant amount of money at five.

They can save, but they would have to save on some other picks as well. As you posted, the slot is roughly $1.5 million less than last year. Maybe they go over slot in one or two other picks. Whatever happens, Elias has done his due diligence. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Jammer7 said:

They can save, but they would have to save on some other picks as well. As you posted, the slot is roughly $1.5 million less than last year. Maybe they go over slot in one or two other picks. Whatever happens, Elias has done his due diligence. 

It comes down to what you consider significant.

I just don't think you can save enough to entice a difference maker that falls later in the draft.

[osravensfan78]

Take BPA and don’t be cute. I have watched Cowser and Frelik a lot this year and If we take one of them to save money, people are going to absolutely lose when they watch film on them compared to someone like Watson in my opinion. 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

It comes down to what you consider significant.

I just don't think you can save enough to entice a difference maker that falls later in the draft.

And those types of players are always available, no matter where you pick, in several of the first rounds.  
 

Again, that has nothing to do with rebuilding or tanking or whatever.  You can get those players in later rounds if you win 90 games.

The only advantage is that really high pick.  If you are going to punt on that pick to sign someone you usually can always have(or someone similar), why are you trying to lose?

[joelala]

53 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And those types of players are always available, no matter where you pick, in several of the first rounds.  
 

Again, that has nothing to do with rebuilding or tanking or whatever.  You can get those players in later rounds if you win 90 games.

The only advantage is that really high pick.  If you are going to punt on that pick to sign someone you usually can always have(or someone similar), why are you trying to lose?

Agreed. The worse your record, the larger your draft pool $, right? If That’s true, that’s the only defense against your argument, but it’s not a very good one I don’t think. Not a fan of quantity over quality, especially when it seems like we have some nice depth in our system now (knock on wood.)

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, joelala said:

Agreed. The worse your record, the larger your draft pool $, right? If That’s true, that’s the only defense against your argument, but it’s not a very good one I don’t think. Not a fan of quantity over quality, especially when it seems like we have some nice depth in our system now (knock on wood.)

Yes thats true....but most of that money goes towards your high pick, which has a far higher slot.  

Whatever the difference the difference that is leftover isn't worth tanking your season.   You tank for one reason, a high pick.  There is literally no other reason, especially once you have dealt all your assets and have gotten cheaper long term.

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

“To me, there is a tier of about eight guys in that top group. Not everyone at the top likes all eight players. You have to try and parse what can happen. With the Orioles, you hear so many different things. I’ve heard they are going to go college. I’ve heard Mike Elias is out seeing and scouting Brady House and Kahlil Watson, like they are all over the high school guys. I’ve heard they will cut a deal - a lot of teams think that they may cut a deal (sign someone underslot) like they did last year with Heston Kjerstad at No. 2 and try to save a significant amount money at five and spend it later in the draft.

“So I don’t really know which one of those to believe and I don’t think any one of those is set in stone.”

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2021/06/feeling-a-draft-jim-callis-on-the-os-at-no-5.html

Lots of other stuff in the article about who the O’s might take.

 

Callis says the first tier is 8 guys.    Mayer, Lawlar, Leiter, Davis,  Rocker, Watson, House and Jobe.   O's  are probably not taking a high school pitcher at #5.   So there are 7 that the O's would consider out of the top 8.

Last year there was a consensus #1 in Torkelson.  And then a tier of 10 or 11.   Kjerstad was around 10 so Elias took him underslot.   But Elias did not skip down a tier.   That is what picking Cowser seem like.  Give up on the best talent for lower talent.  Not to mention that Cowser is playing in the Southland League.  Elias makes a big deal out of picking in major college conferences like the SEC.  

I think Elias picks someone in the top 8 because that is the best talent.   Most mock drafts have Mayer, Lawler and Lieter off the board before the O's pick.  I think the O's would take any of those guys if they are available but they probably are not.

That leaves  Davis, Rocker,  Watson or House.     I like Rocker.   He is from the SEC.  He is a college player who probably reaches the majors at the beginning of  the O's competitive window.  Say 2023.  It might be Davis.  College player from Louisville.  Best hitter in the draft.   But poor defensive player.  And Slow. Rates 40 on the Speed scale.   That is not an outfielder to me.   Probably a 1B/DH who can  be a backup catcher.  Is that enough at #5?

The two high school guys that are still on the board are good in Watson and House.  They are more risky just because they are farther away from the majors. Elias does not like risks that he does not have  to take.   

I am guessing Rocker unless he is gone.  If he is gone then Davis, Watson or House.

[joelala]

55 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes thats true....but most of that money goes towards your high pick, which has a far higher slot.  

Whatever the difference the difference that is leftover isn't worth tanking your season.   You tank for one reason, a high pick.  There is literally no other reason, especially once you have dealt all your assets and have gotten cheaper long term.

We’re in agreement then

[Sports Guy]

Pure guess but I think worst case scenario for the Os is that Watson, Lawlar, Mayer and Leiter are the first 4 picks, in whatever order.