People are always picking on Pedro Severino, but…

[Frobby]

Something I don’t like about Wynns is that he goes from a squat to a splayed position just as the pitcher is in the middle of his delivery.   It would distract the crap out of me if I were the pitcher.   

[spiritof66]

I can see only three reasons why Severino is still around.

Somebody, somewhere may think he's the best available option at catcher because he has gone on an occasional hitting tear, with power, and might do so again. If I were sure that is what's happening, I don't know that I could watch another Orioles game. 

Maybe the Orioles have an internal deadline for seeing whether Severino improves, especially on defense. If so, it would make sense for that date to be either this week of July 31. Maybe Franco is in the same or a similar boat. Let's see.

Or maybe the owner doesn't want to spend an additional $250,000 to $500,000 (or whatever the prorated salary impact would be for a partial season of closer-to-MLB-quality catching). Ownership doesn't seem to give a damn about the prospect of losing 100 games, or 110 or even 120 in 2021. That saving goes right into the owner's pocket (and from there into his estate). Maybe half of that amount looks like real money to John Angelos, and he doesn't want to spend it for the possibility of winning another game or two.

Sad.

[MurphDogg]

Have there been any studies to suggest that Catcher ERA is meaningful? I was under the impression that it was statistical noise, certainly in less that a season worth of data and if it has any value it requires multiple seasons worth of data.

[Aristotelian]

I think a lot of those numbers have to do with timing. Wynns hasn't had a chance to catch healthy Means. Pitching as a whole has been a shambles and I don't think it's because of Wynns. 

[interloper]

Agree with others here that the data is too skewed with Means involved. The fact that Sevvy has caught Means more than everyone else is enough to throw this whole thing off. That said, I also agree with Frobby that I'm not sure I'd start with DFAing Sevvy, but I would definitely start with trying to trade him anywhere for anything. 

I like Wynns, but I'd try Cumberland pretty soon just to see what's up. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I think a lot of those numbers have to do with timing. Wynns hasn't had a chance to catch healthy Means. Pitching as a whole has been a shambles and I don't think it's because of Wynns. 

It's pretty obviously Chris Holt.  Ever since he went on that LOA things haven't been the same.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

I think a lot of those numbers have to do with timing. Wynns hasn't had a chance to catch healthy Means. Pitching as a whole has been a shambles and I don't think it's because of Wynns. 

Also Matt Harvey wasn't a complete train wreck in April with a 4.26 ERA.

And Bruce Zimmerman who is mediocre, but still the second best starter on the O's has been out since June 13th. Wynns did catch for Zimmerman's last start before going on the Injured List.  

[Sports Guy]

A shiny turd is still a turd

[Il BuonO]

Neither Severino or Wynns is a good option, however, I’m surprised no one has cited any other defensive numbers besides the questionable CERA. 
 

It’s pretty clear Severino is horrible. Wynns isn’t great, but he has thrown out 50% (yes, SSS 6 of 12 but I’ll take it) of base stealers this year. He’s slightly below average (-2 DRS, Severino is 28% for his career, but only 19% this year and -6 DRS, -15 career.

Framing? Wynns -1.6, Severino -6.3.

How about passed balls and wild pitches? Yeah, SSS for Wynns again, but 0 PB and 5 WP in 125 innings. Severino has 8 PB and 34 WP allowed in 484. He’ll surely blow by his 2019 total of 10 and 40. 

He’s quite possibly one of the worst defensive catchers I have ever witnessed and certainly not worth what he’s being paid.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

Have there been any studies to suggest that Catcher ERA is meaningful? I was under the impression that it was statistical noise, certainly in less that a season worth of data and if it has any value it requires multiple seasons worth of data.

You definitely have to take it with a grain of salt, especially if the differences are small.   As others noted, you have to look at who was pitching, etc.   Still, I doubt the difference between 5.08 and 7.53 is purely noise.  

[MurphDogg]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You definitely have to take it with a grain of salt, especially if the differences are small.   As others noted, you have to look at who was pitching, etc.   Still, I doubt the difference between 5.08 and 7.53 is purely noise.  

Wynns has only played 125 innings behind the plate. 7.53 could easily be noise if the expected ERA is 5.08. And the expected ERA isn't 5.08 because Wynns hasn't caught John Means, our only starter worth a damn, a single time this year. So the expected ERA is almost ceratainly 5.50+.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

7 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Wynns has only played 125 innings behind the plate. 7.53 could easily be noise if the expected ERA is 5.08. And the expected ERA isn't 5.08 because Wynns hasn't caught John Means, our only starter worth a damn, a single time this year. So the expected ERA is almost ceratainly 5.50+.

Looking at the team stats by month the pitching staff's ERA is 6.38 for June and 7.13! for July. Which is the expected outcome with Means and Zimmerman hurt, and Harvey getting progressively worse. 

[MurphDogg]

5 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Looking at the team stats by month the pitching staff's ERA is 6.38 for June and 7.13! for July. Which is the expected outcome with Means and Zimmerman hurt, and Harvey getting progressively worse. 

Wynns first game was May 31st (O's pitching allowed 2 earned runs that day). So his catcher ERA isn't far out of line with the 6.75-ish that the staff ERA has been since he has joined the team.

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

 

If Severino is playing MLB baseball next year it's likely going to be at the veteran minimum. If Severino gets paid more then that the state of MLB catching is worse than I thought it was. 

If Severino is playing baseball next year, I hope it is somewhere else.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Just now, Philip said:

If Severino is playing baseball next year, I hope it is somewhere else.

With AR in the system, I'd be very surprised if the Orioles brought Severino back. If Severino played good defense this year, then the Orioles role with him as AR's backup or better yet trade him to a team that needs catching help.

Well I think a trade is out the window now and the Orioles will nontender Severino this offseason.