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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And I bet every single team goes overslot at least once in the draft, especially in the first 10 Rounds.

The Os did it even when the team was terrible and seemingly didn’t care about the minors.

You can do a senior sign for 10K in the first ten picks to free up some money for an overslot.  You don't have to take the money from the first.

Those deals, sure, you are sacrificing a pick that probably won't do anything to get a better chance at another position.

You don't need a big pool to do that.

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eddie83
eddie83

They offer no solution because there isn’t one. If Elias holds on to the Bundy and Cobb types they are a little more competitive. Ok fine. Still last place team, still not a contender. System not as d

foxfield
foxfield

We interrupt this Sports Guy flame to report some news on the embarrassment that is the Baltimore Oriole rebuild being orchestrated by Mike Elias. The following are some facts that may be uncomfo

Explosivo
Explosivo

Why is it that national writers can’t seem to grasp such simple concepts? This is worse than Buster Olney’s tertiary view of our rebuild. This lady actually covered the team well and she still doesn’t

Ohfan67 Hangout Grand Counsel

Ohfan67

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure, but I don't think the overslot strategy is a very good one most of the time. 

It's mostly about having money to pay your first round pick near slot.

I was not stating my preferred strategy, I stated what I believe Elias is going to do. I think he values having “extra” money for the draft. I suspect the strategy is totally data/analytics driven. I think they have modeled potential rewards of all the ways they can invest within their budget constraints and this strategy increases the probability of yielding WAR from the draft. May be a very small increase, h be it I think that’s what they will do for at least one more year. Just my intuition of what they are doing. 

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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2 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

I was not stating my preferred strategy, I stated what I believe Elias is going to do. I think he values having “extra” money for the draft. I suspect the strategy is totally data/analytics driven. I think they have modeled potential rewards of all the ways they can invest within their budget constraints and this strategy increases the probability of yielding WAR from the draft. May be a very small increase, h be it I think that’s what they will do for at least one more year. Just my intuition of what they are doing. 

I think it's because he's risk adverse and wants to spread the risk out.

If we are getting into predicting his motivations.

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Ohfan67 Hangout Grand Counsel

Ohfan67

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31 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it's because he's risk adverse and wants to spread the risk out.

If we are getting into predicting his motivations.

It’s not all about risk averse. The odds of buying meaningful WAR in the draft are higher if you have 14 million dollars to spend versus 8.5 million. That was the difference between the cash available for the two suckiest teams versus the median team in this years draft. 

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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1 minute ago, Ohfan67 said:

It’s not all about risk averse. The odds of buying meaningful WAR in the draft are higher if you have 14 million dollars to spend versus 8.5 million. That was the difference between the cash available for the two suckiest teams versus the median team in this years draft. 

We aren't talking about the same thing.

I was talking about going underslot with the first round pick.

Obviously having a larger pool is advantageous, as is picking earlier.  I do think that the vast majority of that advantage is the ability to spend near slot on your first round pick.

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Ohfan67 Hangout Grand Counsel

Ohfan67

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4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

We aren't talking about the same thing.

I was talking about going underslot with the first round pick.

Obviously having a larger pool is advantageous, as is picking earlier.  I do think that the vast majority of that advantage is the ability to spend near slot on your first round pick.

It is the internet, after all. 

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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11 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

See I don’t see that as rebuilding.
 

Next year, AR, GRod, Baumann and others will be up and contributing.  That isn’t really rebuilding.  That is just the natural progression of players being brought up when the team deems them ready.

Every single team in baseball does this.  Every single team relies on young players to come up and fill roster spots.  
 

Spending more money in FA isn’t rebuilding either..that’s the aftermath of a rebuild.

Seems to me you are confusing the teardown (which is completed) with the rebuild.   The rebuild occurs when a new core is established in the major leagues. 

But it’s all semantics, so who cares?
 

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Seems to me you are confusing the teardown (which is completed) with the rebuild.   The rebuild occurs when a new core is established in the major leagues. 

But it’s all semantics, so who cares?
 

I disagree with this.  The core that is established is the result of the rebuild.  It happens after.  
 

 

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foxfield Hangout Grand Counsel

foxfield

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16 hours ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

People so upset at Buster, Britt & Jon but they are calling a spade a spade. This organization is grossly incompetent. Let’s hope Elias changes that but no panacea with such deep rooted dysfunction. 

I do not have an issue with these guys picking on the Orioles ownership or the state of the franchise.  But direct reference to Elias and tanking stretching for 4 plus seasons is wrong factually.  And it becomes fodder for misdirection.  But yes it is true after a stretch where the Orioles had one of the best records in all of baseball, they have plummeted to one of the worst for an extended period of time and watching the current team one is left to wonder how long in the darkness.  

I believe this is the low point.  But proof of that is difficult to provide.

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NCRaven Hangout Grand Counsel

NCRaven

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I think the last two years have been far outside the norm (5 and 20 round drafts; no 2020 minor league season and 60 game major league season; delayed 2021 minor league season) and may say little about how Elias will draft or promote in the future.

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