Jump to content

Connolly article on pitching


Sports Guy

Recommended Posts

Anyway, Connolly's concerns aren't unwarranted. But like, we sorta already knew the pitching was thin. The fact that it's thin and the farm is rated as high as it is means things are at least trending up. Our pitching prospects have largely disappointed this year so it is what it is.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Of course not, when he was with the Astros they used to draft pitchers.  ?

And yesterday, the argument was that was "they" not "he" so what "they" did was no indication of what "he" would do.

I wouldn't be surprised to see one more draft heavy on college position players but who knows what to expect. I'm really interested to find out if any reasonable investment is made in FA pitching this winter or if the O's are happy to go one more slog year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

Anyway, Connolly's concerns aren't unwarranted. But like, we sorta already knew the pitching was thin. The fact that it's thin and the farm is rated as high as it is means things are at least trending up. Our pitching prospects have largely disappointed this year so it is what it is.

I think we all recognized that we had two top flight guys in G-Rod and Hall and were thinking that a guy or two could step up.  Thin, maybe...but there was room for growth.  

Now it's glaringly obvious that the pitching is thin.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, 7Mo said:

And yesterday, the argument was that was "they" not "he" so what "they" did was no indication of what "he" would do.

I wouldn't be surprised to see one more draft heavy on college position players but who knows what to expect. I'm really interested to find out if any reasonable investment is made in FA pitching this winter or if the O's are happy to go one more slog year.

You saw the emoticon right?

Was a joke.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Berrios was acquired for Austin Martin.  He isn’t a pitcher.

Wasn’t that the guy that people around here were screaming we should’ve drafted instead of Heston?

And he’s already traded two years later? That’s an incredibly high  price to pay

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, 7Mo said:

And yesterday, the argument was that was "they" not "he" so what "they" did was no indication of what "he" would do.

I wouldn't be surprised to see one more draft heavy on college position players but who knows what to expect. I'm really interested to find out if any reasonable investment is made in FA pitching this winter or if the O's are happy to go one more slog year.

It's my guess that we'll end up with a FA starter who isn't part of the long term solution, and we'll all be pretty pissed about it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

I agree as well. I wouldn't be surprised if our best avenue to get a young plus starter was as a package deal that takes on a bad contract as well. Would you sign with the O's if you were a FA starter? Do we have the surplus offensive parts to acquire a young plus starter? Since both of those are a clear "no", I hope ownership is open to such a trade. Hopefully moreso now that Davis is off the roster (though we're still paying him). But that doesn't mean that such a deal is out there this offseason. I hope Elias will be hunting down those opportunities instead of hoping they come to him. 

I wouldn’t sign with the Os if I were looking for a 1 year deal to re-establish value…thus why I think Noah Syndegaard is a pipe dream.

But for a big contract, multi year thing?  Sure.

Of course, this is another reason Adley should be up here..to build that rep on the Ml level of being a catcher you want to work with.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, UMDTerrapins said:

It's my guess that we'll end up with a FA starter who isn't part of the long term solution, and we'll all be pretty pissed about it. 

That's a pretty safe guess.

By sitting out the trade deadline, I'd like to think money will be spent this offseason. If not, this is going to be one very, very slow build.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Sports Guy said:

I wouldn’t sign with the Os if I were looking for a 1 year deal to re-establish value…thus why I think Noah Syndegaard is a pipe dream.

But for a big contract, multi year thing?  Sure.

Of course, this is another reason Adley should be up here..to build that rep on the Ml level of being a catcher you want to work with.

Noah might have damaged his market yesterday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But beyond the bad state of pitching right now, the biggest question is why? People in this thread have pointed to Lowther, A. Wells, Akin, Zimmermann, Kremer, Baumann, Smith and others as part of the solution, but most of them are the reason it's been such a terrible year. 

Elias needs to figure this out. He needs those guys who are dominating in AA to be good major leaguers. They don't need to be elite, but we should be able to fill out a solid rotation from, say, #'s 4-7, and have a very competitive bullpen.

It's not like Elias didn't have a plan to accomplish that, it's that his plan went up in flames. An unmitigated disaster. That's the real story and we kind of just have to hope that he can figure out how to make it work.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Elias didn’t draft a pitcher this year until what round? He missed on two first round pitchers in Houston so has come to the conclusion, just pass on top level pitchers in the draft, particularly the first round. Doesn’t sound like decision making based on data, sounds like decision making based on fear. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




  • Posts

    • Great post.  I like your optimism, and I'll try to believe this team can turn things around just in the nick of time like some classic Hollywood baseball movie.
    • I think Elias has mostly done an excellent job with one exception -- he seems like he treats the bullpen like an afterthought.  I doubt that will happen again this coming offseason. I don't really blame him for the current offensive struggles overall.  Just too many injuries late in the season.  That said I don't understand how we went from dealing Austin Hays, Connor Norby and Ryan McKenna just so we could land the right handed bat of, gulp, Austin Slater.  
    • Man this team has no shot. Right now they may not even make it. 
    • Most of these guys are only playing because of injuries to starters.  But Austin Slater I'm guessing was brought in to replace the traded Austin Hays.  The problem is that Slater has shown little ability to hit lefties this year, after hitting them pretty well up to this season.  This must be why two teams dropped him before the O's picked him up.  I know he was let go much earlier in the season, but is Ryan McKenna actually worse than this guy?  I don't understand how the front office went from releasing McKenna to later trading Hays and Norby -- thinking their right handed bats could adequately be replaced by someone like Slater.  
    • I'm willing to give Elias some rope because of the strict limitations he was under with JA but he better not be so damn conservative again this year and let every serviceable FA out there sign with other teams while he's busy picking up reclamation projects again. Minus Burns of course.  
    • I agree completely that it’s irrelevant whether it worked.  But I don’t agree that bunting is clearly the right decision in either scenario, and I think that decision gets worse if it’s intended to be a straight sacrifice rather than a bunt for a hit. To be clear, the outcome you’re seeking in tonight’s situation, for example — sacrifice the runners over to 2nd/3rd — lowers both your run expectancy for the inning (from 1.44 to 1.39) and your win expectancy for the game (from 38.8% to 37.1%). It increases the likelihood of scoring one run, but it decreases the likelihood of scoring two runs (which you needed to tie) and certainly of scoring three or more runs (which you needed to take the lead).  And that’s if you succeed in getting them to 2nd/3rd. Research indicates that 15-30% of sacrifice bunt attempts fail, so you have to bake in a pretty significant percentage of the time that you’d just be giving up a free out (or even just two free strikes, as on Sunday). The bunt attempt in the 3rd inning on Sunday (which my gut hates more than if they’d done it today) actually is less damaging to the win probability — decreasing it only very slightly from 60.2% to 59.8%. More time left in the game to make up for giving up outs, I guess, and the scoreboard payoff is a bit better (in the sense that at least you’d have a better chance to take the lead).   At the bottom of it, these things mostly come down to gut and pure chance. The percentages are rarely overwhelming in either direction, and so sometimes even a “lower-percentage” play may work better under some circumstances. You would have bunted both times. I wouldn’t have bunted either time. Hyde bunted one time but not the other. I don’t know that anyone is an idiot (or even clearly “wrong”) for their preference. Either approach could have worked. Sadly, none of them actually did.
    • Wasn't Hyde always thought of more or less as a caretaker? I'm on the fence about him coming back. I totally get the injuries and that needs to be taking into consideration but man this collapse some heads have to roll who's I'm  mot sure 
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...