Robbie Ray

[Hazmat]

No way Ray chooses to come here.  We should be more focused on pitchers like Chad Kuhl.

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

I would certainly be interested in taking a look.  However, I have seen no indication whatsoever that the Orioles will be targeting any "real' free agents this offseason.  I'd expect 2-3 more LeBlancs/Harveys/Millones.  It's just what they like doing.  It sucks and I disagree with it but it is what it is. 

I've seen no indication that the Orioles will be targeting any real free agents, either.  I've also NOT seen any indication that they won't be targeting any real free agents, too.

Offseason starts after the World Series.  Now I'm expecting a terrible offseason, much like last years where we scrape the bottom of the barrel and bring in guys that essentially no one else wants.  But I'd like to be surprised.  

[Yardball85]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

I've seen no indication that the Orioles will be targeting any real free agents, either.  I've also NOT seen any indication that they won't be targeting any real free agents, too.

Offseason starts after the World Series.  Now I'm expecting a terrible offseason, much like last years where we scrape the bottom of the barrel and bring in guys that essentially no one else wants.  But I'd like to be surprised.  

I agree, and would love being pleasantly surprised.   Offseasons are always just such a place of misery when other teams do things to improve, and the Orioles spend all their time preparing for the Rule V draft.  As they do pretty much every year.

[vab]

8 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

All the obstacles you mention are true, but in the end, money talks.  The O's just have to accept that they will have to overpay (in terms of years and dollars) to sign FA pitching.  

I will say the one possibility to get around the circumstances that make Baltimore so unattractive might be to go way overboard in terms of the length of the contracts and just plan for having to pay these guys for years after they've lost their effectiveness. That would allow for overpaying without blowing the pay-scale out of whack. 

[Moose Milligan]

8 minutes ago, Hazmat said:

No way Ray chooses to come here.  We should be more focused on pitchers like Chad Kuhl.

We'd have to pay and probably outbid the next team by a million or two.  If all things are even between us and practically any other team, yeah...no way they're choosing us.  

Overspending sucks, but it's the likely hole the franchise has dug for itself over the years.

[Just Regular]

I could see Ray being at that Stroman/Gausman just right level where a Jays Qualifying Offer ends up his best option.   He's pitching well enough to earn one, and with that drag combined with his mixed long term track record it might be a struggle to do better.   The Jays obviously want to maximize early Springer, walk year Berrios.   I assume medium term if there is another pitcher they hope they give $20M+ to, it is Berrios more than Ray.

Assuming of course, that whole QO tag remains a thing.

 

[Just Regular]

36 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Overspending sucks, but it's the likely hole the franchise has dug for itself over the years.

Maybe today we are flirting with the line of being lower than even bottomed out Astros ever were, but they've never gone double Confederate money on anyone, and I believe Michael Brantley is the most they've ever spent on an outside free agent.

They did extend Verlander after he got a taste of the organization.

[jabba72]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

This is a name that has been mentioned by a few people as someone to go after.  
 

I wanted to take a look at him, as I hadn’t really considered him as a potential guy for us.

There are definitely some pros and cons to him.

On the good side, his K numbers are huge.  Since 2016, his worst K rate is the one he currently has, which is 10.94.  Taking away last year (where he still made all of his starts), Ray has made at least 23 starts in each season since 2015.  In 3 of the previous 5 seasons, he made at least 28 starts and is well on his way to doing that this year.  He misses a ton of bats.  His swingstr% are well above average, even in this environment where everyone is seemingly missing bats.
 

On the bad sign, the walk numbers are an issue.  They have been excellent this year but he is usually in the 3.5-4 range and has actually been well above 4 the last 3 years.  This year would definitely be viewed as an outlier.  He is throwing a lot more strikes this year but his strike% is usually below average.  He also gives up a lot of homers, as he is a FB pitcher.  Despite being durable, he doesn’t pitch a ton of innings.  Similar to Tillman in that regards.

All in all, I see a guy who probably should be better than he is but is still passable as a good starter.  You may have some off years if he is more wild than usual and/or gives up a lot of homers (see 2020) but all in all he should give you a 4ish ERA for about 170 innings.  He turns 30 in about 6 weeks.

I think he’s definitely someone to consider but the BB and HR rates, as well as the lack of innings, should/could keep the price tag down.  Something in the 3/45 area would make sense to me.  Can’t see going more than that but if you could get him for that (or obviously less), I think that’s a deal you make.

I would jump at that offer, but so would Toronto and probably many more teams. Some big market team will offer him 3/60 or higher unfortunately. Pitching like that doesn't grow on trees. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

I would jump at that offer, but so would Toronto and probably many more teams. Some big market team will offer him 3/60 or higher unfortunately. Pitching like that doesn't grow on trees. 

You could be right.  As I said, he’s picking the right time to show good control.  
 

Still, he was awful in 2020 and not great in 2019.  He has a lot of flaws And is turning 30.  Just wonder how crazy teams go but I tend to think we will have to go 4 years to get him and I wouldn’t do that.  I would go up in AAV but not years.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, backwardsk said:

They are not going to give Robby Ray the 9 figure contract needed to land him.

Are you saying you think Ray wouldn’t sign with the O’s for under $100 mm, or are you saying you think some other team will offer him $100 mm?   To me, he’s not worth anywhere near that.   

[jabba72]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You could be right.  As I said, he’s picking the right time to show good control.  
 

Still, he was awful in 2020 and not great in 2019.  He has a lot of flaws And is turning 30.  Just wonder how crazy teams go but I tend to think we will have to go 4 years to get him and I wouldn’t do that.  I would go up in AAV but not years.

I wouldnt go 4 years either but the Dodgers or Yankees or any number of teams might go 2/60 with a team option for a 3rd year. 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

I wouldnt go 4 years either but the Dodgers or Yankees or any number of teams might go 2/60 with a team option for a 3rd year. 

Yea I think you are overrating his market.  No one is paying him that type of money.  He has very little history of being that good.  He’s solid and has some things that you love but a lot of things you hate. 

[Just Regular]

Ray is running so good I imagine his head hits the pillow at night dreaming Patrick Corbin dreams.

Corbin got 6 x 23 for ages 29-34, and had 950 career IP at 109 ERA+ when he got his big contract.

Ray will be selling his age 30 and on, and has 980 career IP at 108 ERA+

[Sports Guy]

Just now, OrioleDog said:

Ray is running so good I imagine his pillow hits the bed at night dreaming Patrick Corbin dreams.

Corbin got 6 x 23 for ages 29-34, and had 950 career IP at 109 ERA+ when he got his big contract.

Ray will be selling his age 30 and on, and has 980 career IP at 108 ERA+

I did consider this. But Corbin had far better control and was less homer prone.

Still, it does only take one stupid bidder and while I can’t see him be on the highest paid AAV guys in the sport, I wouldn’t be completely shocked at a 5/90-110 type deal either.  

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I did consider this. But Corbin had far better control and was less homer prone.

Still, it does only take one stupid bidder and while I can’t see him be on the highest paid AAV guys in the sport, I wouldn’t be completely shocked at a 5/90-110 type deal either.  

Zach Wheeler got 5/$118 and has been worth every penny. Ray is definitely going to be expensive.