Cedric Mullins - 30/30 ?

[RZNJ]

Who woulda thunk it?   Cedric has 24 homers and 25 steals with about 30 games to go.   It's going to be close.    Besides already having a great breakout season, that would be a great accomplishment.   I don't believe an Oriole has ever done it.

He has 24 homers in 128 games which is a shade under 1 per 5 games so if he continues his seasonal pace, he should just make it.   Go Cedric!!!!!

[interloper]

He's awesome. Unquestionably. Love the guy and hope he reaches 30/30, which I think he will. 

However, I'm gonna be that guy and bring up the fact that his defense has been pretty (read: hugely?) disappointing this season. I didn't really notice it until I started to note a string of batted balls that he probably should have caught with his speed out there. The numbers don't lie either: 

.984 F% with 5 errors

-4.8 UZR

-1.1 RngR

Pretty much every defensive metric I could find is below average. So that's something I hope he looks to improve in the offseason. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

He's awesome. Unquestionably. Love the guy and hope he reaches 30/30, which I think he will. 

However, I'm gonna be that guy and bring up the fact that his defense has been pretty (read: hugely?) disappointing this season. I didn't really notice it until I started to note a string of batted balls that he probably should have caught with his speed out there. The numbers don't lie either: 

.984 F% with 5 errors

-4.8 UZR

-1.1 RngR

Pretty much every defensive metric I could find is below average. So that's something I hope he looks to improve in the offseason. 

I almost find it hard to believe that his defense from a true talent perspective is below average. His range alone should put him in the black IMO. I would want to know: is this a situation of a few flukey plays skewing the averages, something wonky about how OPACY OF is scored***, something more fundamental to his game, etc.?

*** This is a question that's been raised in the past that has never really been answered, I think there are some articles / detailed OH posts on it that I might try to dig up

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, BohKnowsBmore said:

I almost find it hard to believe that his defense from a true talent perspective is below average. His range alone should put him in the black IMO. I would want to know: is this a situation of a few flukey plays skewing the averages, something wonky about how OPACY OF is scored, something more fundamental to his game, etc.?

It takes a good two years of defensive data to show much of anything.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I almost find it hard to believe that his defense from a true talent perspective is below average. His range alone should put him in the black IMO. I would want to know: is this a situation of a few flukey plays skewing the averages, something wonky about how OPACY OF is scored, something more fundamental to his game, etc.?

Yeah maybe. Every few games it seems like he dives for a ball that he should catch and just doesn't come up with it. Or something drops in front of him, or gets behind him. It's weird. Other times he's smooth as silk and catches a ball no one else on the team could get to. 

[interloper]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

It takes a good two years of defensive data to show much of anything.

Fair point, but the eye test and the metrics line up in this case for me. I watch every single game and he just isn't making the plays he should make out there in my opinion. But it's also his first full season after not really playing much last year also. So I think the jury is still out for sure. He's a guy that will work to improve also. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, interloper said:

Fair point, but the eye test and the metrics line up in this case for me. I watch every single game and he just isn't making the plays he should make out there in my opinion. But it's also his first full season after not really playing much last year also. So I think the jury is still out for sure. He's a guy that will work to improve also. 

I'm not at all disagreeing with anything you said, I was just discussing the validity of defensive metrics over a small sample size.

If Mullins keeps hitting like this I'll take this level of defense.

[interloper]

Anyway, now I feel bad for derailing this thread. I should have started a defense thread. 

COMMENSE THE 30/30 WATCH

 

[Moose Milligan]

Cedric's gotta pick it up a little bit if he wants to get 30/30.

I'm not knocking him, not by any stretch.  But August wasn't great for him, he hit .252/.310/.485 for a .795 OPS.  He did, however, hit 7 homers and also stole 7 bases.  Obviously if he can repeat that, he hits 30/30.

We all need to remember that he's never played a full big league season before and he might be a little tired at this point.  That wouldn't be surprising.  I am hoping that's all that his recent slump is a result of and that most of this summer wasn't a mirage for him.  

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Cedric's gotta pick it up a little bit if he wants to get 30/30.

I'm not knocking him, not by any stretch.  But August wasn't great for him, he hit .252/.310/.485 for a .795 OPS.  He did, however, hit 7 homers and also stole 7 bases.

We all need to remember that he's never played a full big league season before and he might be a little tired at this point.  That wouldn't be surprising.  I am hoping that's all that his recent slump is a result of and that most of this summer wasn't a mirage for him.  

Dog days...  + fatigue...

But the weather's cooling off.. and there's something to shoot for.

I'm hopeful

[BohKnowsBmore]

9 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I almost find it hard to believe that his defense from a true talent perspective is below average. His range alone should put him in the black IMO. I would want to know: is this a situation of a few flukey plays skewing the averages, something wonky about how OPACY OF is scored***, something more fundamental to his game, etc.?

*** This is a question that's been raised in the past that has never really been answered, I think there are some articles / detailed OH posts on it that I might try to dig up

 

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It takes a good two years of defensive data to show much of anything.

 

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not at all disagreeing with anything you said, I was just discussing the validity of defensive metrics over a small sample size.

If Mullins keeps hitting like this I'll take this level of defense.

 

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

Anyway, now I feel bad for derailing this thread. I should have started a defense thread. 

COMMENSE THE 30/30 WATCH

 

To further derail the topic... These articles delve a bit into what I was talking about. I'm not sure this question has ever been satisfactorily answered one way or the other...

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2011/10/bad-outfield-defense-or-bad-fielding.html

https://medium.com/ro-baseball/outfielders-advanced-defensive-metrics-566911e28268

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

30 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Who woulda thunk it?   Cedric has 24 homers and 25 steals with about 30 games to go.   It's going to be close.    Besides already having a great breakout season, that would be a great accomplishment.   I don't believe an Oriole has ever done it.

He has 24 homers in 128 games which is a shade under 1 per 5 games so if he continues his seasonal pace, he should just make it.   Go Cedric!!!!!

LOVE!!! I LOVE Cedric and thanks for the thread/recognition! HUGE fan! I watched him play so much at Bowie. Always cheering for him!

Also, like how it was mentioned if Mateo improved on his bunting in the offseason (similar to Mullins) might help him even more.

One thing that sets Mullins apart, his worth ethic. A great leader to have around a club.

[RZNJ]

When a .795 OPS is a slump, you know you've made it.

[Ruzious]

C'mon Cedric! - there's no 29/29 club.  

[LTO's]

Seem to remember people caring about the thoughts of rival scouts/execs so thought I'd share this. Mullins ranked second in OF defense.