Seems like OPACY was more hitter-friendly than ever this year

[Frobby]

Okay, maybe not “ever,” because I only looked at the last 10 years.   But right now, with three road games to play, our offense has scored 74 more runs at home than on the road, while allowing 86 more at home than on the road.   That’s a 160 differential; the final differential figures to be in the +115 to + 140 range.   The highest differential in the last 10 years was +113, for the 2012 Orioles.   Here’s a breakdown by year (RS differential, RA differential, total differential):

2012: +62, +51, +113

2013: +19, +21, +40

2014: -23, -23, -46

2015: +87, +5, +92

2016: +8, -43, -35

2017: +47, -27, +20

2018: +56, -70, -14

2019: -11, +83, +72

2020: +22, +59, +81 (projected for 162 games)

The homer differential this year is really drastic; the O’s have hit 122 at home, 70 on the road, while allowing 155 at home, 92 on the road.  

It’s a tough place to pitch, no doubt about it.

 

[Frobby]

The Yankees hit 20 homers at OPACY, next highest road park was 9.

The Red Sox hit 19 homers at OPACY, next highest road park was 11.

The Rays hit 25 homers at OPACY, next highest road park was 13.

The Jays were more equal opportunity, hitting 21 homers at OPACY, Yankee Stadium and Fenway.   

That’s 85 homers against us at OPACY by the AL East teams in 38 games, compared to 70 hit by our other opponents in 43 games.   
 

[Moose Milligan]

I think the most hitter-friendly aspect of Camden Yards is who's standing on the mound wearing the home team jerseys.

[Moose Milligan]

In regards to how homer-happy the stadium is, I think you need to look at the no-doubters...the ones that would leave any park.  I know they keep track of this, I just don't know where to look for it.

And then look at the homers given up that would be out of 50% of parks, 25% of parks, etc.  

But overall, if we had better pitching, we wouldn't be giving up as many homers.  I know Camden Yards is a small park that's offense friendly but I'm betting a lot of homers given up by our pitchers would be out in most parks.  

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

In regards to how homer-happy the stadium is, I think you need to look at the no-doubters...the ones that would leave any park.  I know they keep track of this, I just don't know where to look for it.

And then look at the homers given up that would be out of 50% of parks, 25% of parks, etc.  

But overall, if we had better pitching, we wouldn't be giving up as many homers.  I know Camden Yards is a small park that's offense friendly but I'm betting a lot of homers given up by our pitchers would be out in most parks.  

True, but that doesn’t explain allowing 155 homers at home and only 92 on the road.   It’s the same lousy pitchers (more or less).    

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

True, but that doesn’t explain allowing 155 homers at home and only 92 on the road.   It’s the same lousy pitchers (more or less).    

Most of the time the opposition wasn't batting in the 9th when the O's are on the road. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

True, but that doesn’t explain allowing 155 homers at home and only 92 on the road.   It’s the same lousy pitchers (more or less).    

How many pitches thrown at home vs. the road?  Again, not sure where to look.  

You're probably right, Camden Yards is a bandbox.  

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

How many pitches thrown at home vs. the road?  Again, not sure where to look.  

Now that is a split I’ve never seen.   I do know that at present, our opponents have had 3217 PA at OPACY, 2908 in their home parks (figure that gap will close by 100-120 this weekend).   It stands to reason that the PA are higher at OPACY, because the better a team hits, the more PA they get.   So, my assumption would be the pitch count is higher too.   

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Now that is a split I’ve never seen.   I do know that at present, our opponents have had 3217 PA at OPACY, 2908 in their home parks (figure that gap will close by 100-120 this weekend).   It stands to reason that the PA are higher at OPACY, because the better a team hits, the more PA they get.   So, my assumption would be the pitch count is higher too.   

That's still not enough of a gap to justify 155 homers at home vs. 92 on the road.  Even if you were to take the average pitch per plate appearance and figure that into the difference between 3217 and 2908, I don't think that justifies a 60~ homer gap.  

Dunno, just thinking out loud.  

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

That's still not enough of a gap to justify 155 homers at home vs. 92 on the road.  Even if you were to take the average pitch per plate appearance and figure that into the difference between 3217 and 2908, I don't think that justifies a 60~ homer gap.  

No, I think the gap is largely the ballpark.   It’s always been homer-friendly, but it seems more extreme than usual this year.  Mullins has 22 of his 30 homers at home; Mountcastle 22 of 33; Santander 15 of 18.    In addition to having 122 homers at home vs. 70 on the road, the O’s have a .760/.652 OPS split home vs. road.   

[Porky]

50 minutes ago, Frobby said:

True, but that doesn’t explain allowing 155 homers at home and only 92 on the road.   It’s the same lousy pitchers (more or less).    

The O's have 53 road losses and 54 home losses. Since this team is pretty bad, I'm assuming most of those road games are ending after the top of the ninth. That's only eight innings usually pitched by the the Orioles when they are losing on the road. So, you're talking about a guesstimate of about 50 fewer innings pitched by a crappy bullpen on the road versus Camden Yards.

I'd also be interested in how the weather this year might have impacted things. I felt like it was a more humid and hot summer than normal - which might contribute to things.

Overall though - you're right. Camden Yards as a whole seems more homer happy than normal.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think the most hitter-friendly aspect of Camden Yards is who's standing on the mound wearing the home team jerseys.

Yep. That is certainly the only difference.

[Frobby]

Just now, Porky said:

The O's have 53 road losses and 54 home losses. Since this team is pretty bad, I'm assuming most of those road games are ending after the top of the ninth. That's only eight innings usually pitched by the the Orioles when they are losing on the road. So, you're talking about a guesstimate of about 50 fewer innings pitched by a crappy bullpen on the road versus Camden Yards.

This is a good point, regarding our opponents taking less at bats in their home park vs. OPACY.    Of course, the reverse also is true (though not as extreme) - the O’s bat in the 9th more often on the road than at home.   

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

44 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No, I think the gap is largely the ballpark.   It’s always been homer-friendly, but it seems more extreme than usual this year.  Mullins has 22 of his 30 homers at home; Mountcastle 22 of 33; Santander 15 of 18.    In addition to having 122 homers at home vs. 70 on the road, the O’s have a .760/.652 OPS split home vs. road.   

It is an unusual anomaly in the statistics, but did anything change at OPACY that would explain this? Looking at the yearly splits maybe something is different in 2021, but the 2019 Orioles pitcher gave up 45 more home runs at OPACY. 

If this trend repeats next year or remains the same when the pitching staff improves, then I'm more inclined to read more into this year's home run splits.

Orioles Hitters Home Run Splits

2016 Home: 131 Road: 122

2017 Home: 135 Road: 97

2018 Home: 100 Road: 88

2019 Home: 114 Road: 99

2020 Home: 45 Road: 32

2021 Home: 122 Road: 70

Orioles Pitcher Home Run Splits

2016 Home: 88 Road: 95

2017 Home: 127 Road: 115

2018 Home: 123 Road: 111

2019 Home: 175 Road: 130

2020 Home: 43 Road: 36

2021 Home: 155 Road: 92

 

[waynebug]

The problems are the cheap home runs in left and especially right field.

It does make for exciting, high scoring games that should draw viewers and stadium crowds.  

When I had MASN I enjoyed all the scoring, knowing the game was always in doubt.