2022 MLB Draft Discussion (Use this thread to discuss all picks, not Orioles picks)

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I think Elias is a very smart, analytical, careful guy.  I’m very confident that he and his staff have done more research, analysis and detailed thinking on this topic than everyone on the Hangout combined.  I’m not saying his strategies are always right or that he’s infallible — I’m saying he’s not just winging it and employing uninformed strategies.   

I'm not suggesting he is.

But folks, even smart folks, can get caught in certain patterns of thought.

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s absolutely wrong.  The Astros absolutely could have drafted Buxton and still had McCullers.  Saying they couldn’t is just wrong.  There isn’t an ounce of truth to it.

The Astros has a bonus pool of 11.2M. If they had taken Buxton, who signed for 6M (200k less than slot value).  If they taken Buxton and paid him full slot(7.2M), which they wouldn’t have had to do but just say they did, they still could have signed McCullers(who got 2.5M) and still would have had 1.5M left plus whatever overage they wanted.  
 

So yea, they factually and mathematically could have signed Buxton and McCullers.  
 

The Orioles could give player X full slot this year and still have another 8.1M left.  They could have any player they want with the next pick and perhaps even the pick after that.

Sure, they may be punting the rest of the draft but spending 8.8M for a player stops them from nothing with their next pick..just as it wouldn’t have stopped the Astros from taking McCullers.  

If the Astros want to blow 9.7m of their 11.2M on two players and only have 1.5m for the rest to the draft that could be true but its a bad strategy.

[Sports Guy]

It’s also false the Orioles couldn’t have signed Mayo and Baumler if they took Martin.

In 2020, they had a draft pool of 13.9M, which really means they could have gone to 14.5 without paying a larger penalty.

If they had given Martin 7M, Westburg, Mayo and Baumler would have gotten their combined 5.6M, that still left them 900k.  Now, could they have also had Haskin and Servideo?  No but so what?  
 

In this case, the Orioles don’t go underslot early and still get  3 other guys they obviously targeted and wanted.  
 

This whole idea that you can’t spend in the draft if you spend slot or close to it with the first pick is just wrong.  There is zero truth it.

Does it make it harder later on into the draft?  Sure but so what?  Most of those guys won’t be anything anyway. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

If the Astros want to blow 9.7m of their 11.2M on two players and only have 1.5m for the rest to the draft that could be true but its a bad strategy.

It isn't if you hit.

If Jasson Dominguez turns out like the Yankees hope (and I have doubts) would they have been wrong to basically blow their entire International pool on one player?

The excess value of a big time hit is huge, well above what you are going to get back if you play the draft straight.

 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If the Astros want to blow 9.7m of their 11.2M on two players and only have 1.5m for the rest to the draft that could be true but its a bad strategy.

Why is it a bad strategy?  
 

Let me put it another way…would you trade Adley, GRod or Gunnar for another teams 10 prospects ranked 10-20?  Pick any system..are you trading 1 for 10?

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

That depends on what Buxton would have signed for it he went #1.

No it doesn’t depend on that but since we know he signed for 200k under slot at 2, it’s safe to say you wouldn’t have had to go slot at 1 to sign him.  Probably could have given him 6.5-6.8 and he signs.

[geschinger]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s absolutely wrong.  The Astros absolutely could have drafted Buxton and still had McCullers.  Saying they couldn’t is just wrong.  There isn’t an ounce of truth to it.

The Astros has a bonus pool of 11.2M. If they had taken Buxton, who signed for 6M (200k less than slot value).  If they taken Buxton and paid him full slot(7.2M), which they wouldn’t have had to do but just say they did, they still could have signed McCullers(who got 2.5M) and still would have had 1.5M left plus whatever overage they wanted.  
 

So yea, they factually and mathematically could have signed Buxton and McCullers.  
 

The Orioles could give player X full slot this year and still have another 8.1M left.  They could have any player they want with the next pick and perhaps even the pick after that.

Sure, they may be punting the rest of the draft but spending 8.8M for a player stops them from nothing with their next pick..just as it wouldn’t have stopped the Astros from taking McCullers.  

That is not a realistic approach - it's a recipe for getting your 1st round pick the next year.  1.5m for rounds 2 through 10 would mean just about every pick would need to agree to sign for well under slot.  If they don't, you lose that pick's slot value.  One or two guys don't sign and you've now exceeded the overall draft pool by more than 5% and you've surrendered your first rounder the following year.  If I remember correctly it's not that much more of an overage to then lose a second first round pick.  Mathamatically possible, reaslitically impossible.

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

True, the allure of going 1-1 might have caused him to lower his demand.

Good point.

Buxton as the #2 in the draft signed for 6.2M.  He was not into allure.  He wanted as much money as he could get. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Buxton as the #2 in the draft signed for 6.2M.  He was not into allure.  He wanted as much money as he could get. 

Oh, you know him?

So I guess he demanded 1-1 money from the Twins right?  Since money was his motivation.

[geschinger]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s also false the Orioles couldn’t have signed Mayo and Baumler if they took Martin.

In 2020, they had a draft pool of 13.9M, which really means they could have gone to 14.5 without paying a larger penalty.

If they had given Martin 7M, Westburg, Mayo and Baumler would have gotten their combined 5.6M, that still left them 900k.  Now, could they have also had Haskin and Servideo?  No but so what?  
 

In this case, the Orioles don’t go underslot early and still get  3 other guys they obviously targeted and wanted.  
 

This whole idea that you can’t spend in the draft if you spend slot or close to it with the first pick is just wrong.  There is zero truth it.

Does it make it harder later on into the draft?  Sure but so what?  Most of those guys won’t be anything anyway. 

If in this scenario Haskin doesn't sign and chooses to go back to school you have to subtract the slot value of 1.9m and you've exceeded 5% and the Orioles lose their 2021 first round pick (and the associated bonus pool).

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, geschinger said:

That is not a realistic approach - it's a recipe for getting your 1st round pick the next year.  1.5m for rounds 2 through 10 would mean just about every pick would need to agree to sign for well under slot.  If they don't, you lose that pick's slot value.  One or two guys don't sign and you've now exceeded the overall draft pool by more than 5% and you've surrendered your first rounder the following year.  If I remember correctly it's not that much more of an overage to then lose a second first round pick.  Mathamatically possible, reaslitically impossible.

You can debate the merits of it.  What you can’t debate is that spending slot with the first pick would have stopped the Astros from signing McCullers, which is what you were implying.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, geschinger said:

If in this scenario Haskin doesn't sign and chooses to go back to school you have to subtract the slot value of 1.9m and you've exceeded 5% and the Orioles lose their 2021 first round pick (and the associated bonus pool).

No..you just draft a 7th round talent with his pick and you spend 200k or whatever.  Or, exactly what Pitt did last year where they spent very little on picks in the back half of the top 10.  They had top 10 picks they paid 12k for but they also took 4 first round talents with their first 4 picks, so who cares?

In other words, you can essentially throw a few picks..sign relievers or whatever.  

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Buxton as the #2 in the draft signed for 6.2M.  He was not into allure.  He wanted as much money as he could get. 

If he was willing to sign for underslot at 2, it’s extremely fair to assume he would have done the same at 1.  In fact, it’s almost a certainty.  If 6.2M caused him to not go college, I’m sure 6.8M would have done the same.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No..you just draft a 7th round talent with his pick and you spend 200k or whatever.  Or, exactly what Pitt did last year where they spent very little on picks in the back half of the top 10.  They had top 10 picks they paid 12k for but they also took 4 first round talents with their first 4 picks, so who cares?

In other words, you can essentially throw a few picks..sign relievers or whatever.  

Or you can spend $100 k on a 4th round pick and have him turn out to be Myles Straw.   Win/win!

[geschinger]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No..you just draft a 7th round talent with his pick and you spend 200k or whatever.  Or, exactly what Pitt did last year where they spent very little on picks in the back half of the top 10.  They had top 10 picks they paid 12k for but they also took 4 first round talents with their first 4 picks, so who cares?

In other words, you can essentially throw a few picks..sign relievers or whatever.  

You are tyring to have it both ways.   They saved 400k on that 12k signing but the main reason they got so much talent into their organization is they took the approach which you thought is so poor.  They did underslot/overslot with the Davis pick.  The money was not there to go overslot with those three other first round talents had they not gone underslot on Davis.  It isn't saving the 400k on the 12k pick that made that possible, it was the underslot/overslot approach with the #1 pick that did.