What affect will winter ball have on Mateo chances to be the O's 2022 starting SS?

[wildcard]

Just a little bit of history and some questions.  The answers will be determined by Mateo play and the O's management's judgement.

Health

Mateo left the O's September 12th game with a back injury.  That ended his season.  He will have 6 weeks of rest and rehab before the Dominican season which begins on October 27th.    Will he be healed and ready to play?

History

 Mateo has played SS for the Toros del Este team in the Dominican for that last 4 years according to BB Ref. (He played a little 2B as well in 2016.)    If Mateo does that again this off season the O's will no doubt be watching.   How much influence will Mateo's play have on who the O's add to play the infield next season?

Mateo O's History

 Mateo was an everyday player for the O's from August 6th to September 12th.    29  starts,  32 games playing some part of the game.   15 starts at SS, 12 at 2B and 2 in the OF.  His fielding percentage at SS was .980, at 2B  .982.  Both very good.  I think the O's would take that from him if he could do that for a full season.

He hit 280/328/421/948.  I think the O's would take that over 160 games if they could get it.

Winter ball this off season

Will it affect the way Elias  judges Mateo role for 2022?  Could it set up Mateo to be a starter at SS or 2B?  Or if he does poorly this off season could it make him a utility player for the O's next season?

I only have questions. No answers.

[Sports Guy]

I would hope it has none.

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I would hope it has none.

Probably won’t have any.   Mateo has played in the Dominican Winter League for years.  He might get 75-150 PA there this winter.   Hard to see how this would move the needle in any serious way.   I will say, he hadn’t hit well at all in previous winter seasons (.600 career OPS in 488 PA there) so it would be nice if he did better.   But it won’t matter much.  

[wildcard]

Mateo OPS  in the Dominican over the years

Age 21         477 OPS

Age 22         617 OPS

Age 23          537 OPS

Age 24           524  OPS

Age 24            834 OPS at AAA (PCL) in 566 PA

Age  25           844 OPS in Dominican

Age 26            748 OPS playing everyday for the O's

Age 26            ??? in the Dominican

Mateo may have progressed 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

I’m not certain Mateo is really a .748 OPS hitter if he gets 500 at bats compared to 107 this past season with the O’s.

Mateo did better than Martin and Jones so he definitely is in running to be in the starting lineup in 2022. Long term he’s more likely a utility player if he sticks in MLB. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Mateo OPS  in the Dominican over the years

Age 21         477 OPS

Age 22         617 OPS

Age 23          537 OPS

Age 24           524  OPS

Age 24            834 OPS at AAA (PCL) in 566 PA

Age  25           844 OPS in Dominican

Age 26            748 OPS playing everyday for the O's

Age 26            ??? in the Dominican

Mateo may have progressed 

Sure.  But I think the 72 PA in the DWL are less meaningful than the 2020 results in a full year of AAA and the 2021 results in 209 at bats in the majors.   BTW, you really should have included Mateo’s .572 OPS in 93 PA in San Diego this year before he came to the O’s.   

[wildcard]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

Sure.  But I think the 72 PA in the DWL are less meaningful than the 2020 results in a full year of AAA and the 2021 results in 209 at bats in the majors.   BTW, you really should have included Mateo’s .572 OPS in 93 PA in San Diego this year before he came to the O’s.   

He was not getting everyday at bats in San Diego.  When he gets everyday at bats he does better.

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

He was not getting everyday at bats in San Diego.  When he gets everyday at bats he does better.

Maybe when he does better he gets more playing time?

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

He was not getting everyday at bats in San Diego.  When he gets everyday at bats he does better.

Maybe.   But I still think the data should have been included, if you were going to include the Orioles stats and try to show a trend of improvement over the last 2 years or so.  I would not say he got everyday at bats in last year’s DWL.  He had 75 PA compared to 152 and 124 In some other seasons.  

I want to be clear - I have some hope for Mateo.   I just didn’t think the data presented the full picture.  
 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Maybe.   But I still think the data should have been included, if you were going to include the Orioles stats and try to show a trend of improvement over the last 2 years or so.  I would not say he got everyday at bats in last year’s DWL.  He had 75 PA compared to 152 and 124 In some other seasons.  

I want to be clear - I have some hope for Mateo.   I just didn’t think the data presented the full picture.  
 

I was only considering games where I thought he got regular playing time.   I don't have any insight into why he didn't play more games in the Dominican.  Was he injured? Was there someone the manager wanted to play more than him?  But he did well so I suspect his at bats came close together.

There were reports when Mateo's was claimed that the part time play caused him to not hit well.   That he had not gotten a full chance in the majors.  And Elias/Hyde committed to play him everyday.  And he hit better.   So I think going into ST the plan will be to  get Mateo regular playing time and see if he can continue to hit well.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I was only considering games where I thought he got regular playing time.   I don't have any insight into why he didn't play more games in the Dominican.  Was he injured? Was there someone the manager wanted to play more than him?  But he did well so I suspect his at bats came close together.

There were reports when Mateo's was claimed that the part time play caused him to not hit well.   That he had not gotten a full chance in the majors.  And Elias/Hyde committed to play him everyday.  And he hit better.   So I think going into ST the plan will be to  get Mateo regular playing time and see if he can continue to hit well.

OK but this thread seems to be drifting from the initial question about how much the DWL will matter in all this.   I think he’ll get the same opportunity in ST pretty much regardless of how he plays in the DWL.   Also, how do you delineate “regular playing time?”    Nobody plays every day in spring training.   Last year Mateo got 57 at bats in spring training with San Diego, which was 11th most of any player in MLB.   Hays led the O’s with 51.  https://www.mlb.com/stats/at-bats/spring-training?page=2

[Ruzious]

I think it does matter how he does - especially if he does particularly well or particularly poorly.  The most recent data is usually the most important data - though it doesn't wipe away the importance of data from prior years.  

[Frobby]

Hyde, via Roch:

That was a really disappointing injury because he was really fun to watch improving,” manager Brandon Hyde said during the final homestand.

“I’m excited about [Mateo] going forward. I think he’s got big-time ability. He’s got rare tools in that he does a lot of things that a lot of guys can’t do on the baseball field from a speed factor. He’s got power, he can play both spots in the middle, he can play the outfield. So, I was really looking forward to watching him play through September, but unfortunately his season got cut short.”

Hyde also said he thinks Mateo can be “a fit” no matter what the Orioles do in the offseason.

They aren’t going to work around him. He can adapt to whatever situation is created from the outside acquisitions or in-house maneuvering.

“Mateo’s in that discussion if we put this guy at short, put this guy at second, whatever it may be,” Hyde said. “Mateo’s in the discussion there.”

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2021/10/little-more-on-mateo.html

[scOtt]

1 hour ago, Ruzious said:

I think it does matter how he does - especially if he does particularly well or particularly poorly.  The most recent data is usually the most important data - though it doesn't wipe away the importance of data from prior years.  

I think it matters in that it would (could...) show the O's that he's fully recovered, speedy as again and all.

I guarantee if not Elias himself down there, the O's will have eyes on him. It's more like ST. It's not about the numbers he puts up but how does he look?

[jamalshw]

I don't it matters unless he goes out and puts up a 1.000+ OPS and slams like seven homers while stealing a dozen bags. It has to be something massive to have really any impact. (Or he could get like a dozen hits--all singles--in 100 ABs which would may have some sway in the opposite direction). 

Barring something extreme, I expect he will compete with Urias and Jones (along with a free agent like a Galvis type) for ABs in the infield. Personally, I'd like to see both him and Urias get near everyday reps for at least the first half of the season until they either prove themselves or Westburg or Vavra is ready to take their place.