Who is the Orioles 2021 #3 prospect?

[ChrisP]

1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

I went with Hall, health be damned.  His stuff is incredible when he is on the bump.  If he can mature physically, and stay healthy, he may be our best pitcher.  I’ll go with the pure talent here.

This is why I voted Hall. His floor is Britton, right? 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, ChrisP said:

This is why I voted Hall. His floor is Britton, right? 

His floor is Hunter Harvey.  

[Philip]

I just read the CC write up on Mayo, and although it was enthusiastic,  it complained about a high K-rate and lousy defense… so I’m back to Hall.

Probably wrong, though…

[BohKnowsBmore]

42 minutes ago, Philip said:

I just read the CC write up on Mayo, and although it was enthusiastic,  it complained about a high K-rate and lousy defense… so I’m back to Hall.

Probably wrong, though…

Is his K rate that high? 

I've got him at 18.5% K-rate across three levels last season, with a walk rate of 13.4% (this as a 19-year old).

Those numbers are roughly in line with Adley's career MiL numbers in both (not exactly apples-apples)

 

 

[waroriole]

7 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Is his K rate that high? 

I've got him at 18.5% K-rate across three levels last season, with a walk rate of 13.4% (this as a 19-year old).

Those numbers are roughly in line with Adley's career MiL number (not exactly apples-aples)_

 

 

Yeah it’s under 20%. Pretty good for our current times. 

[Tony-OH]

Lots of great conversation in this thread. Just goes to show how truly informed you guys are on the Orioles prospect scene. Great job.

I won't give any clues about my choice in order to keep the conversation up and keep the voting genuine, but I'm just impressed by how knowledgeable you guys are on our prospects overall.

 

[Sydnor]

I voted for Hall over Mayo. I have no idea who Tony will pick, but I feel like Hall could be the choice because both Hall and Mayo have a fair amount of risk at this point and Cowser played at a low level without showing much power.
 

Despite Hall’s elbow issue and the limited sample, I can’t ignore 15.9 K/9 and 3.5 K/BB. Admittedly, I’ve always been high on Hall because I think his stuff is elite, and worry less about the command concerns. I am very curious to see if Cowser is the pick here and where he will end up because I seem to recall Tony having some concerns regarding Cowser’s power output and potential, and the impact that will have on his ability to get on base as he rises.

[Philip]

37 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Is his K rate that high? 

I've got him at 18.5% K-rate across three levels last season, with a walk rate of 13.4% (this as a 19-year old).

Those numbers are roughly in line with Adley's career MiL numbers in both (not exactly apples-apples)

 

 

“The report says Mayo struggles with consistent contact and is a big swinger that strikes out a good amount, and the statistics suggest as much. Playing 27 games - exactly one-sixth of a big-league season - Mayo struck out 26 times, a 156-whiff pace for 162 games. Considering that that came against Single-A pitching, contact will assuredly be a point the Orioles stress in his development.”

Math isn’t my strong point but figuring 600 ABs, that’s about 25% K rate.

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

His floor is Hunter Harvey.  

Clever but bitter…

[waroriole]

22 minutes ago, Philip said:

“The report says Mayo struggles with consistent contact and is a big swinger that strikes out a good amount, and the statistics suggest as much. Playing 27 games - exactly one-sixth of a big-league season - Mayo struck out 26 times, a 156-whiff pace for 162 games. Considering that that came against Single-A pitching, contact will assuredly be a point the Orioles stress in his development.”

Math isn’t my strong point but figuring 600 ABs, that’s about 25% K rate.

Why would the percentage change based on increased totals?

[Chuck A]

I chose Gunnar.  As a 19 yo he went 3 levels.  Struggled for the first time in High A but figured it out and still put up very nice numbers for his age.  Consider this, he was years younger than average age at all 3 levels.  It's the same reason i think highly of Hernaiz.  All these middle infielder prospects will eventually be either a) washed out, b) prosper and become mainstays, or c) be traded for missing pieces, ie, PITCHING.

[BohKnowsBmore]

35 minutes ago, Philip said:

“The report says Mayo struggles with consistent contact and is a big swinger that strikes out a good amount, and the statistics suggest as much. Playing 27 games - exactly one-sixth of a big-league season - Mayo struck out 26 times, a 156-whiff pace for 162 games. Considering that that came against Single-A pitching, contact will assuredly be a point the Orioles stress in his development.”

Math isn’t my strong point but figuring 600 ABs, that’s about 25% K rate.

In those 27 games, he had 26 Ks in 125 PA, so a 20.8% K-rate. He had 14 K in his 91 FCL plate appearances (15.4%).

He was 2.2-years younger than league average for single-A Delmarva, so I'm not sure that's some massive red flag by any stretch.

[wildcard]

I picked Cowser because I would think that Tony evaluated the positional value, K/9, power potential, OBP projection and defensive ability before he ranked him 3rd in the Power Rankings.

[Philip]

49 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Why would the percentage change based on increased totals?

Well they extrapolated out to 156 Strikeouts in 162Games and I just figured what percentage of 600 is 156, assuming 600 at bats in 162 games

[Tony-OH]

31 minutes ago, Philip said:

Well they extrapolated out to 156 Strikeouts in 162Games and I just figured what percentage of 600 is 156, assuming 600 at bats in 162 games

Fangraphs will do all the math for you..

His K rate was 20.8% at Delmarva while be one of the youngest players in the league.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/coby-mayo/sa3014479/stats?position=DH