2021 Orioles #3 Prospect - Coby Mayo - 3B

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Brooks The Great said:

I have Gunnar Henderson #3 because he projects to play the more premium defensive position, and despite having less raw power than Mayo, showed some plate discipline at all levels that he played at this past season, which bodes well for Gunnar's ability to be a complete hitter.

I like Tony's #3 ranking for Mayo, though. Never seen an O's prospect in my lifetime with this kind of raw power at such an early age.

Most of the big publications will be lazy and rank Hall #3, but his injury risk profile and risk to be a reliever place him behind Gunnar, Mayo, and Cowser for me.

Does he?

I always remember one of the things Joe Jordan told me long ago while watching a game together, "The special ones just look different than everyone else on the field." 

Mayo just looks special when you watch him at bat.

 

[Aristotelian]

Very exciting. I had a feeling it might be Mayo but just couldn't bump him up that aggressively with Cowser having pedigree and also performing well. 

[HowAboutThat]

Rats. I had good reasons for Hall, and they were all wrong.

[Tony-OH]

57 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

It's a snapshot after a single season. No doubt Gunnar could be above Mayo next year just based on Gunnar's performance alone. That kid could be special. He did have an up and down season though, both at the plate and in the field. 

If he's like some of the kids I know, the offseason can be used to really clean up the game. Not sure that applies as they get older, but there's nothing stopping Gunnar from being our #1 prospect next year. It might not be likely, but it's possible.

Let's look at Gunnar's Delmarva stats at 20 years old vs Coby Mayo at 19 years old.

Name      BB%    K%       ISO    BABIP    AVG    OBP    SLG    wOBA    wRC+
Mayo       12.8% 20.8% .236    .373       .311    .416    .547      .437       159       in 125 PAs
Gunnar    8.9%   29.3% .262    .404      .312    .369   .574       .417       147       in 157 PAs

Pretty close overall but Mayo's better BB and K rates are much better while hitting for a little less power. We also have to remember Gunnar had the Alternate site PAs that certainly helped him coming into this season giving him more experience when he faced the same level of competition.

Here's something else that is a yellow flag for me for Gunnar. He hit .195/.313/.341/.654 with 7 BB and 14 Ks in 41 PAs against left-handers in Delmarva and .190/.295/.352/.647 with 16 Bb and 46 Ks in 122 PAs overall against lefties at all three levels. More will be explained in his profile while also going into his defensive profile.

I'll be honest, I may be in the minority here and I imagine no national publications will have Mayo this high or probably over Henderson, but let's remember, the hype train on Henderson started from the information coming out of the alternate camp by the ORIOLES. He did hit well at Delmarva though his K rate was high, but his defense was bad at both SS and 3B (more on that later).

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

I'll be honest, I may be in the minority here and I imagine no national publications will have Mayo this high or probably over Henderson, but let's remember, the hype train on Henderson started from the information coming out of the alternate camp by the ORIOLES. He did hit well at Delmarva though his K rate was high, but his defense was bad at both SS and 3B (more on that later).

 

I thought some of the reports were from national guys that had actual eyes on the camp?

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

It's REALLY hard to rank Kjerstad almost anywhere, right? No matter where Tony puts him, there's real "risk" that Kjerstad either greatly overperforms or greatly underperforms. 

Stowers is on the doorstep of the majors, has power and plays good defense. Risk is k rate. You can justify putting him very high, I'd wager.

Kjerstad is a huge unknown because we don't have any precedence for what he's gone through at this age and experience level to come back and perform. We know what skill sets he had, but we have no information on how he's looked since he's been back doing baseball activities.

You are right though, it's hard to place him but again, I went with, what guy would I rather have in the system as of the day I set the list a few days ago. He could clearly be much higher or lower next year.

[Tony-OH]

27 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I would not have ranked Mayo this high, but it’s defensible based on his strong offensive showing.   I think where you rank Mayo vs. Henderson depends on where you think they land defensively.   Henderson made a lot of errors this year, but I still read positive things about his defense at SS from two outside sources in the BA league rankings (he was ranked 4th in the Low A East, 8th in the Hi A East by BA).    Mayo seems like he’s got a decent defensive toolset at 3B, but needs work, plus let’s not forget he was coming off knee surgery.   So I think 2022 will tell us a lot about both players defensively.   Right now I’ve got Henderson a tick higher because of the position he plays, but that could change. Either way, it’s great to have two prospects like that outside our top two, along with Hall and Cowser.   That’s a really strong top six (I don’t think Stowers or Kjerstad will crack that group).   

I won't say who the top six are of course, but they are the cream of the crop. The next group has real good potential as well, but there are just more yellow flags with them.

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I thought some of the reports were from national guys that had actual eyes on the camp?

I don't believe anyone was allowed at the alternate camps last year so if "reporters" were getting information, they were coming from Orioles personnel or perhaps have a source with another team that fed them stat cast data collected at the sites. 

I had sources that are not the "Blood-kind" of source and they agreed that he looked really good after a slow start. Of course, he was seeing a lot of the same pitchers over and over.

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Let's look at Gunnar's Delmarva stats at 20 years old vs Coby Mayo at 19 years old.

Name      BB%    K%       ISO    BABIP    AVG    OBP    SLG    wOBA    wRC+
Mayo       12.8% 20.8% .236    .373       .311    .416    .547      .437       159       in 125 PAs
Gunnar    8.9%   29.3% .262    .404      .312    .369   .574       .417       147       in 157 PAs

Pretty close overall but Mayo's better BB and K rates are much better while hitting for a little less power. We also have to remember Gunnar had the Alternate site PAs that certainly helped him coming into this season giving him more experience when he faced the same level of competition.

Here's something else that is a yellow flag for me for Gunnar. He hit .195/.313/.341/.654 with 7 BB and 14 Ks in 41 PAs against left-handers in Delmarva and .190/.295/.352/.647 with 16 Bb and 46 Ks in 122 PAs overall against lefties at all three levels. More will be explained in his profile while also going into his defensive profile.

I'll be honest, I may be in the minority here and I imagine no national publications will have Mayo this high or probably over Henderson, but let's remember, the hype train on Henderson started from the information coming out of the alternate camp by the ORIOLES. He did hit well at Delmarva though his K rate was high, but his defense was bad at both SS and 3B (more on that later).

 

Henderson’s defense is the big question mark for me.   He was erratic, to say the least.   But he had his supporters.  

From the BA Low A write up:  “Henderson stood out defensively as well, both at shortstop and third base, with advanced instincts and plus arm strength. League managers were confident that he can stick at shortstop, even with his larger frame.”

From the Hi A write up: “The 20-year-old shortstop has stood out for his plus raw power, defensive ability, reactions and arm strength, with managers highlighting his play at shortstop specifically.”

I don’t watch minor league games regularly, so I really have to rely on others’ opinions when it comes to defense.   Those takes are a lot more positive than I would expect just looking at the numbers.   

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Henderson’s defense is the big question mark for me.   He was erratic, to say the least.   But he had his supporters.  

From the BA Low A write up:  “Henderson stood out defensively as well, both at shortstop and third base, with advanced instincts and plus arm strength. League managers were confident that he can stick at shortstop, even with his larger frame.”

From the Hi A write up: “The 20-year-old shortstop has stood out for his plus raw power, defensive ability, reactions and arm strength, with managers highlighting his play at shortstop specifically.”

I don’t watch minor league games regularly, so I really have to rely on others’ opinions when it comes to defense.   Those tales are a lot more positive than I would expect just looking at the numbers.   

I don't put a lot of credence into minor league managers opinions in these polls. I watched a lot of Gunnar at both and though he has the raw skills to be good, there are some issues that have me concerned which I'll get into in his profile. I will say that his athleticism does give me hope that he can continue to improve and potentially stick on the left side of the infield. 
 

[Frobby]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

I don't put a lot of credence into minor league managers opinions in these polls. I watched a lot of Gunnar at both and though he has the raw skills to be good, there are some issues that have me concerned which I'll get into in his profile. I will say that his athleticism does give me hope that he can continue to improve and potentially stick on the left side of the infield. 
 

I’m looking forward to your write-up of him, especially your observations about his defense.   Like I said, I don’t watch enough MiL baseball to have an opinion. Certainly his fielding percentage numbers weren’t good, and MiL range numbers are not reliable.   

[Brooks The Great]

18 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Let's look at Gunnar's Delmarva stats at 20 years old vs Coby Mayo at 19 years old.

Name      BB%    K%       ISO    BABIP    AVG    OBP    SLG    wOBA    wRC+
Mayo       12.8% 20.8% .236    .373       .311    .416    .547      .437       159       in 125 PAs
Gunnar    8.9%   29.3% .262    .404      .312    .369   .574       .417       147       in 157 PAs

Pretty close overall but Mayo's better BB and K rates are much better while hitting for a little less power. We also have to remember Gunnar had the Alternate site PAs that certainly helped him coming into this season giving him more experience when he faced the same level of competition.

Here's something else that is a yellow flag for me for Gunnar. He hit .195/.313/.341/.654 with 7 BB and 14 Ks in 41 PAs against left-handers in Delmarva and .190/.295/.352/.647 with 16 Bb and 46 Ks in 122 PAs overall against lefties at all three levels. More will be explained in his profile while also going into his defensive profile.

I'll be honest, I may be in the minority here and I imagine no national publications will have Mayo this high or probably over Henderson, but let's remember, the hype train on Henderson started from the information coming out of the alternate camp by the ORIOLES. He did hit well at Delmarva though his K rate was high, but his defense was bad at both SS and 3B (more on that later).

 

I don't disagree with any of your reasoning, and all valid points, but Mayo was handled pretty cautiously this season. I mentioned this in a previous thread, but Mayo wasn't really challenged this season. Henderson was. And yes, that was because Henderson is older and had the alternate site the year prior to get his footing. But I actually view Henderson's struggles and adjustments with each new level as a positive, and I think he'll improve against lefties as he gets more at bats as he climbs up the system.

Henderson has the range and fielding instincts (which he demonstrated on multiple plays during the AA playoffs) which bode well for him not only to stick at shortstop, but also be a quality defender. Mayo doesn't quite offer that (at least to the potential Gunnar possesses), in my opinion, outside a great arm and athleticism for his size. Maybe at 3B, but definitely not SS. Henderson's ability to play SS sets him apart defensively.

This is more of a gut feeling, but to use some best case scenario comps, Henderson reminds me of Chipper Jones, Mayo reminds me of Mike Stanton (before the first name change). If I had to pick one that I prefer, give me Jones. But I'm ecstatic to have both.

[Sydnor]

I love that Tony has Mayo third. I picked Hall because I wasn’t sure he’d do it given that Mayo playing at Delmarva. I think his tools are incredibly exciting. In fact, I think his tools are the most exciting in the system (excluding Adley and Rodriguez). 

I also remember Tony saying he thought the Orioles might have gotten a steal because the pandemic kept eyes off of Mayo in his draft year, and that in a normal year, he very well could have risen up the draft boards on the spring. I basically want to say I think this is great and my worthless opinion is I’m total agreement with this pick.

[oriole]

24 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I won't say who the top six are of course, but they are the cream of the crop. The next group has real good potential as well, but there are just more yellow flags with them.

Wish I would’ve read this before voting in the #4 poll. Now I know I’m wrong lol

[LookinUp]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't put a lot of credence into minor league managers opinions in these polls. I watched a lot of Gunnar at both and though he has the raw skills to be good, there are some issues that have me concerned which I'll get into in his profile. I will say that his athleticism does give me hope that he can continue to improve and potentially stick on the left side of the infield. 
 

One of the things that you probably have to deal with yearly with your write-ups is they're based on the information available at a point in time. People sometimes think you draw conclusions like "Gunnar won't be as good as Mayo." You certainly have you're opinions, but you also don't rule out one player taking a major step while another does not.

Henderson has power and athleticism. That's a great combination. I think he has balance issues in his swing and most likely in his fielding too. I made a point like that in the minors forum when he kept hitting those oppo homeruns and got busted on for it. I don't think people realize what that means about a swing. At the same time, I think a lot of that stuff can be improved upon over time. That's what player development is for, and his athleticism means he has a better chance to become more centered at the plate, which should reduce his platoon issues over time somewhat.

Not saying he'll transform into Tony Gwynn. Just that he's young, athletic and had good success despite some struggles. Very exciting prospect to me.