Can Mike Elias be as creative as Dan Duquette was in the 2011-2012 off season?

[Can_of_corn]

21 minutes ago, fitzi22 said:

Can he, yes. Will he, no.  I don’t think he even wants to yet.  Maybe next offseason when we have a better idea of what we have in terms of prospects.  Elias has shown a nice ability to get quality prospects in return with the few trades has done.  I have always said that the Orioles will officially switch into a competitive gear when Elias starts trading some young talent away.  Until then we are non competitive for the most part and need to enjoy the very small victories we get throughout the year.  I expect this off-season to be no different than the last few.  The waiting game continues.  Think of the high draft picks and enjoy the milb box scores for another year.

Let's look at Tony's 2021 list.

1. Drafted
2. Drafted
3. Drafted
4. Drafted
5. Drafted
6. Drafted
7. Drafted
8. Drafted
9. Drafted
10. Drafted

Not a single International player or player acquired via trade.

 

[interloper]

A totally fair question. Duquette pulled off some magic with the rotation - rebuilt it in one fell swoop. But I also think he got more than a little lucky that Chen, Gonzo, and Hammel ALL worked out. 

I don't think this is quite Elias' method, but also Duquette was never that creative again. He peaked pretty early. 

[rudyrooster]

DD was brough in to win now.  He already had a big-time manager in Buck Showalter.  A core to build around (Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy).  Elias was brought in to build from the ground-up.  Two different scenarios.  Seems like only Elias will determine when or if their comes a time to "flip on the switch".

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, rudyrooster said:

DD was brough in to win now.  He already had a big-time manager in Buck Showalter.  A core to build around (Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy).  Elias was brought in to build from the ground-up.  Two different scenarios.  Seems like only Elias will determine when or if their comes a time to "flip on the switch".

I think ownership has a say in the matter.

[Porky]

1 hour ago, rudyrooster said:

DD was brough in to win now.  He already had a big-time manager in Buck Showalter.  A core to build around (Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy).  Elias was brought in to build from the ground-up.  Two different scenarios.  Seems like only Elias will determine when or if their comes a time to "flip on the switch".

Signing Miguel Gonzalez on a minor-league deal, signing Chen to a 3/$11.3M contract, and trading a proven starter in Guthrie for Hammel is all pretty low-profile stuff. I really wouldn't consider that "flipping the switch," like splurging for a big free agent. Those are moves I'd expect any GM to make in any offseason - and ones I hope we see from Elias soon. There just isn't enough pitching depth in the minors to put together a competitive team. It's going to need to come from elsewhere.

 

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Between service clock manipulation and a usage cap I wouldn't expect Grayson to make a huge impact in 2022.

The service manipulation is two week  and that is before the CBA which may wipe it out completely.   Usage?  Grayson should be good for 130 IP which is not a whole season but could be impactful.

I expect Means and Grayson to be the two best pitchers in O's camp next spring.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The service manipulation is two week  and that is before the CBA which may wipe it out completely.   Usage?  Grayson should be good for 130 IP which is not a whole season but could be impactful.

I expect Means and Grayson to be the two best pitchers in O's camp next spring.

It's two weeks...unless it's two months.

[Frobby]

Dan had a lot of things go his way that first offseason.   I’m sure Elias couid make a series of similar moves, but the odds they’d be as successful are not high.   Finding a guy like Gonzalez in the Mexican League doesn’t happen very often, nor does signing a guy like Chen that cheaply (by the way, the legwork on Chen was done before Dan arrived, though Chen was signed afterwards).

GMs make moves and sometimes they go their way and sometimes they don’t.   I think back to the 2014-15 offseason when Dan tried to replace Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz with an assortment of other cheaper players and literally all of them had poor seasons in 2015.    He wasn’t a worse GM then than in 2012, but when you shop in the bargain bin you aren’t always going to come out on top.   There’s some luck involved.   
 

[Can_of_corn]

The O's had a chance to pick up a pitcher that put up a 3.37 ERA (3.97 FIP) over 28 starts (163 IP) last season for 10M and didn't take it.

 

I think that points to the direction Elias is going next season.

[HowAboutThat]

Yes

[LA2]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

The O's had a chance to pick up a pitcher that put up a 3.37 ERA (3.97 FIP) over 28 starts (163 IP) last season for 10M and didn't take it.

 

I think that points to the direction Elias is going next season.

I think you mean the 34-year-old guy who made 43 starts with the Orioles 2016-17 and was awful (6.17 and 5.61 ERAs). The same one who the Astros didn't re-sign for about $6M and didn't entrust a start to in the 2019 postseason after he had started 33 games and gone 14-6 during the regular season. I'm glad the Orioles passed on Wade Miley.

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, LA2 said:

I think you mean the 34-year-old guy who made 43 starts with the Orioles 2016-17 and was awful (6.17 and 5.61 ERAs). The same one who the Astros didn't re-sign for about $6M and didn't entrust a start to in the 2019 postseason after he had started 33 games and gone 14-6 during the regular season. I'm glad the Orioles passed on Wade Miley.

/Shrug.

If being presentable next season is a goal that is the type of move you make.

 

[rudyrooster]

17 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think ownership has a say in the matter.

Touce'.

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, LA2 said:

I think you mean the 34-year-old guy who made 43 starts with the Orioles 2016-17 and was awful (6.17 and 5.61 ERAs). The same one who the Astros didn't re-sign for about $6M and didn't entrust a start to in the 2019 postseason after he had started 33 games and gone 14-6 during the regular season. I'm glad the Orioles passed on Wade Miley.

Seems like a pure cost-cutting move by the Reds.   They said they’ve been looking to trade him for several weeks but couldn’t find a taker.  Kind of surprising.

[HowAboutThat]

19 hours ago, interloper said:

A totally fair question. Duquette pulled off some magic with the rotation - rebuilt it in one fell swoop. But I also think he got more than a little lucky that Chen, Gonzo, and Hammel ALL worked out. 

I don't think this is quite Elias' method, but also Duquette was never that creative again. He peaked pretty early. 

Luck is a fickle companion.