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2021 Orioles #14 Prospect - Maikol Hernandez - SS

Tony-OH

By Tony-OH
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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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1 minute ago, glenn__davis said:

Definitely didn't expect this one, but sounds like Hernandez has all sorts of tools.

I’m going to go back to what I said before…I think these guys are so off of an Os fans radar because we just aren’t using to seeing them.  Its also different for Tony because he’s not used to these types of guys being considered either.

I thought Tony would go a different direction but this is the option I took because of the upside.  
 

You are at the point where there are a lot of good options but no one that has the upside of these guys.  I like the aggression of the ranking and it’s something that’s common with a lot of other teams.

 

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

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On the one hand, I love the fact that our international program has produced the no. 12 and 14 players in the system.   That's huge progress.

On the other hand, I don't really see Hernandez being ranked this high based on body type or whatever.  He didn't really produce all that well.   I can see him in the top 30, but not this high.   The fact that he's here kind of discourages me about what Tony thinks of the more experienced players.

I did like that little clip of Hernandez hitting in the cage that O's player development put up a few days ago.

Orioles Player Development on Twitter: "Maikol Hernandez cage work ? https://t.co/t9JYM4jVlS" / Twitter

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

On the one hand, I love the fact that our international program has produced the no. 12 and 14 players in the system.   That's huge progress.

On the other hand, I don't really see Hernandez being ranked this high based on body type or whatever.  He didn't really produce all that well.   I can see him in the top 30, but not this high.   The fact that he's here kind of discourages me about what Tony thinks of the more experienced players.

I did like that little clip of Hernandez hitting in the cage that O's player development put up a few days ago.

Orioles Player Development on Twitter: "Maikol Hernandez cage work ? https://t.co/t9JYM4jVlS" / Twitter

There is a little bit to this. I'm not sure I would say "discouraged," but as guys get closer it's easier to evaluate and assess what they will be at the major league level. It's pretty obvious at this point that I have doubts have Bradish and Baumann will stick as starters since they have pitched at higher levels than Rom and Pinto. 

I value potential starters more than guys I feel will end up being relievers. If I feel a guy has a chance to be an everyday guy, I'd rather have him in my system than a guy who is probably a 40 to 45 level player. Now these guys like Basallo and Hernandez may flame out and not even become 40-45 level players, but in my mind, there's a lot more 40 to 45 level players available which makes them less valuable than a guy who could be a regular or better.

Do I feel super great about putting guys on this list this high when I've never seen them play a game? No, but sometimes you have to look at the entire package and give some trust into the scouts who thought they were worth the money they got and the scouts who have seen this since.

Again, I'm not saying anyone else is wrong if they have these guys lower, but I will say if I thought there were every day guys at high levels they would be ahead of them.

Saying that, I still have a very generic look at some of the 2021 draft picks and don't feel great about evaluations until after they get a full season under their belts. 

But that's what makes this process interesting to me.

 

 

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glenn__davis Hangout Grand Counsel

glenn__davis

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m going to go back to what I said before…I think these guys are so off of an Os fans radar because we just aren’t using to seeing them.  Its also different for Tony because he’s not used to these types of guys being considered either.

I wouldn't say Hernandez is off my radar at all, far from it, I was just surprised to see him this high.  But then I always like to see guys have some success at A-ball before starting to get really excited about them.  I get why Tony has him here, I just didn't expect it.

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Ruzious Hangout Grand Counsel

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25 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

There is a little bit to this. I'm not sure I would say "discouraged," but as guys get closer it's easier to evaluate and access what they will be at the major league level. It's pretty obvious at this point that I have doubts have Bradish and Baumann will stick as starters since they have pitched at high levels than Rom and Pinto. 

I value potential starters more than guys I feel will end up being relievers. If I feel a guy has a chance to be an everyday guy, I'd rather him in my system then a guy who is probably a 40 to 45 level player. Now these guys like Basallo and Hernandez may flame out and not even become 40-45 level players, but in my mind, there's a lot more 40 to 45 level players available which makes them less valuable than a guy who could be a regular or better.

Do I feel super great about putting guys on this list this high when I've never seen them play a game? No, but sometimes you have to look at the entire package and give some trust into the scouts who thought they were worth the money they got and the scouts who have seen this since.

Again, I'm not saying anyone else is wrong if they have these guys lower, but I will say if I thought there were every day guys at high levels they would be ahead of them.

Saying that, I still have a very generic look at some of the 2021 draft picks and don't feel great about evaluations until after they get a full season under their belts. 

But that's what makes this process interesting to me.

 

 

That's gotta be the hardest thing about evaluating teenage players - weighing the ceiling vs most likely outcome.    

As far as starters vs relievers, yes starters are more valuable, but the difference gets smaller every year.  When you find a guy who can be a dominant reliever, I think that's sometimes more valuable than a 4th or 5th starter.  But I get that finding starters is much harder than finding relievers - and that has to fit in the equation.   

 

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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24 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

That's gotta be the hardest thing about evaluating teenage players - weighing the ceiling vs most likely outcome.    

As far as starters vs relievers, yes starters are more valuable, but the difference gets smaller every year.  When you find a guy who can be a dominant reliever, I think that's sometimes more valuable than a 4th or 5th starter.  But I get that finding starters is much harder than finding relievers - and that has to fit in the equation.   

 

I agree with this statement. If I think a guy can be converted into a lights out dominant closer, that would have more value to me than a 5th starter type.

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The biggest thing I noticed was how much different he looks compared to when we first signed him. He’s definitely put in the work in the weight room. Hopefully, he starts in the FCL this year. 

The guys that were invite to the instructional league from the DSL will be in the FCL next season at the very least.

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