2021 Orioles #15 Prospect - Zac Lowther - LHP

[Tony-OH]

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2021/11/10/15-zac-lowther/

[Sports Guy]

This is one of the last choices I would have taken but I like it because I think they screwed up Lowther in 2021.  I would love to get an explanation of why they treated him in the manner that they did.

No reason he shouldn’t be given an opportunity to win a rotation spot in ST.

[interloper]

Dang it. lol

[sportsfan8703]

The Yo-yo’ing couldn’t have been good. Also, he faced a lot of the AL East teams. His numbers might even out in a full MLB season. I think we have something here, they just need to handle him appropriately. Maybe with some of these young SP types, we need to move the rotation around a bit to get good LH/RH matchups. 

[interloper]

I'd love to hear the reasoning why Lowther is a better prospect than Bradish at this point. I get that Bradish is thought to eventually be a reliever, but isn't Lowther also? I'm not really buying the 3 or so good starts he had at the end of the year. Just like we shouldn't have bought the good starts from Kremer at the end of 2020. 

[interloper]

Like, a 4.26 ERA in AAA with a K-rate just under 11 is really not too bad for a pitcher's first taste of AAA, which is not an easy place to pitch. Especially if that pitcher is not thought to be a stud TOR-type prospect. The WHIP was a bit high, but again, first taste of AAA. 

I maintain that folks are sleeping on Bradish. I look for him to steadily improve. 

[Tony-OH]

52 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This is one of the last choices I would have taken but I like it because I think they screwed up Lowther in 2021.  I would love to get an explanation of why they treated him in the manner that they did.

No reason he shouldn’t be given an opportunity to win a rotation spot in ST.

This is partially why he's still here. He finally started to pitch decently in September when he was on regular rest and routine. It's still unfathomable to me why he was treated the way he was while Alex Wells and others were kept on regular schedule.

I'm a believer in him regardless of his 2021 numbers. I think he's going to end up a solid starter and his fastball will play up better than it did in 2021 to go along with his offspeed pitches which both were successful plus pitches at times. If he regains the feel on his change, that gives him four offerings with different breaks and velocity.

[Tony-OH]

48 minutes ago, interloper said:

I'd love to hear the reasoning why Lowther is a better prospect than Bradish at this point. I get that Bradish is thought to eventually be a reliever, but isn't Lowther also? I'm not really buying the 3 or so good starts he had at the end of the year. Just like we shouldn't have bought the good starts from Kremer at the end of 2020. 

See my response to Sports Guy above on why I think Lowther will be a starter. As for Bradish, you'll see soon why he's where he's at for me. 

[Aristotelian]

This is the one pick I really strongly disagree with. Lowther had a terrible year both minors and majors. He was a borderline prospect to begin with. I don't know how he can be ahead of Baumann and Bradish based on the year he had and he doesn't even have stuff to suggest much upside. 

[Frobby]

Seems like a reasonable placement to me.   I’m really giving all the starters who debuted in 2020-21 a benefit of the doubt.   Hopefully he’s sharper next year.  

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

This is the one pick I really strongly disagree with. Lowther had a terrible year both minors and majors. He was a borderline prospect to begin with. I don't know how he can be ahead of Baumann and Bradish based on the year he had and he doesn't even have stuff to suggest much upside. 

This is where I differ with some other folks including some other prospect analysts. I've always been pretty high on Lowther and I think he's got a starter's repertoire. I also believe he was never in a routine this year thanks the Orioles handling of him this year until September when he pitched better outside of one bad start. 

While he doesn't present the velocity that Bradish and Baumann can bring, he has more pitches with different breaks and velocity differences than the other two. 

I'm sur there are going to many lists with Lowther either very low or maybe even off the list thanks to his numbers last year, but when you look at his statcast numbers on his breaking pitches, the extension he gets on his fastball release, I think we see a guy who with regular rest and routine is going to be a starter. 

Now he's a flyball pitcher in a bad Division for being a flyball pitcher, and that won't help him, but it would not surprise me if he ends up getting traded and becomes a really good starting pitcher in another Division. But even if he sticks here, I can see him as a 4th starter type who is going to give the team a lot of good outings and keep his team in the game more times than not.

[interloper]

14 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

This is the one pick I really strongly disagree with. Lowther had a terrible year both minors and majors. He was a borderline prospect to begin with. I don't know how he can be ahead of Baumann and Bradish based on the year he had and he doesn't even have stuff to suggest much upside. 

This is kind of where I'm at although perhaps not as harshly. I do think he got yo-yo'd too much, but he also mentioned something clicking mentally at one point down in AAA and from then on he was much better. So ultimately, I don't know how much stock I put into the yo-yo factor. Like Kremer and Akin, he was pretty bad from the jump last year prior to any yo-yoing and didn't get better until he sorted something out himself.

Bradish I guess Tony feels won't stick as a starter, but I'm not sure why that is. Lack of command I guess, but Lowther didn't command the ball any better in AAA in 2021 (4.7 BB/9 compared to Bradish's 4.1), so I dunno. Also looks like lack of pitch repertoire compared to Lowther. 

[LookinUp]

I think people are too caught up on the exact order. 

Lowther wasn't allowed to finish his minor league progression last year. Bradish was. Lowther should have been parked in AAA and been made to find consistent success before being promoted. He wasn't. I hope they don't feel forced to put him in the ML rotation at the beginning of this year. If they do because he's ready, fine, but I think they need to let this guy get his feet under him before throwing him into the fire. Send him to AAA or the ML bullpen if that's what it takes.

I'll feel the same about Bradish, Kremer, Akin, Wells, Rom, etc. whenever they come up too. Some will be ready in March/April, but I'd rather they show they're ready instead of just being given a spot because they're next man up.

I just really don't think the hiccups in AAA last year were a coincidence. A lot of these guys honed their craft on spin rates and feel, and when they got to AAA they needed to regain that feel. They weren't given that opportunity, by and large, before failing in the majors.

[Aristotelian]

Just now, interloper said:

This is kind of where I'm at although perhaps not as harshly. I do think he got yo-yo'd too much, but he also mentioned something clicking mentally at one point down in AAA and from then on he was much better. So ultimately, I don't know how much stock I put into the yo-yo factor. Like Kremer and Akin, he was pretty bad from the jump last year prior to any yo-yoing and didn't get better until he sorted something out himself.

I don't really buy Baumann, but the track record as a prospect alone seems like it should put him close to Lowther. And Bradish I guess Tony feels won't stick as a starter, but I'm not sure why that is. Lack of command I guess, but Lowther didn't command the ball any better in AAA in 2021, so I dunno. 

You can blame his performance on (mis)usage but is there any reason to expect his usage to change? Maybe the organization mistreated him but that kind of tells you where the organization is on him which has to affect his ranking in my mind. 

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

You can blame his performance on (mis)usage but is there any reason to expect his usage to change? Maybe the organization mistreated him but that kind of tells you where the organization is on him which has to affect his ranking in my mind. 

I think the reasoning for his yo-yo compared to others like Wells basically boils down to luck and whether they felt they needed fresh arms in the bullpen. There was an extreme focus on limiting innings and having fresh arms in 2021. Whether or not you agree that that was more important than treating a prospect "right" is up to opinion, but that's what they decided to do. I don't know if they purposely did that to Lowther instead of guys like Wells - I think it just kind of happened that way.

I tend to like Zimmermann's whole package more than Lowther, but I can't deny that Lowther did finally look like the guy we thought he could be the last few starts. I just have my doubts it was for real. We'll see!