O’s sign Jordan Lyles

[jabba72]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I think we're all mixed up at this point. lol

This is what happens when the Orioles throw us a bone at the last second. 

I agree with you that Lyles is basically Harvey. I would not surprise me if he puts up similar numbers as Harvey in 2021 though hopefully they won't keep running him out there as long with Rodriguez, Bradish, Baumann and potentially Rom or Brnovich not too far behind.

I wonder what Hyde thinks about the signing. 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

19 hours ago, Hallas said:

In what universe does this make any amount of sense? Yusei Kikuchi was available, as was Zach Davies and Matt Kuhl: all way preferable to this guy if we wanted depth.  I can't believe we just forked over 7 million for a guy whose ceiling is maybe an eyelash over replacement level.

 

I actually think Elias is crazy.  If this is the kind if depth he's going to sign then we will never be a winning franchise under him.

 

By the way, I really wanted us to hire Kim Ng, and I'm increasingly convinced that she is going to guide the Marlins to the playoffs before the Orioles make it there.

I wanted Kim Ng too. You know she would have been amazing and nobody would work harder. Elias still riding on the coattails of a franchise with a culture of cheating. 
 

I am often critical of Elias simply because people like all or nothing. Dude isn’t the worst but many huge alarm bells. And this? Honestly this looks borderline nuts. 
 

If this is what you wanted, just resign Harvey and save $5 mil+ AND get a better pitcher. Let that sink in as you twist like a pretzel defending this move.

[interloper]

1 hour ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

I wanted Kim Ng too. You know she would have been amazing and nobody would work harder. Elias still riding on the coattails of a franchise with a culture of cheating. 
 

I am often critical of Elias simply because people like all or nothing. Dude isn’t the worst but many huge alarm bells. And this? Honestly this looks borderline nuts. 
 

If this is what you wanted, just resign Harvey and save $5 mil+ AND get a better pitcher. Let that sink in as you twist like a pretzel defending this move.

In no way is Harvey a better pitcher at this point of his career.

[interloper]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think you definitely believe that Lyles is going to be better entering 2022 vs Harvey entering 2021.

The question is, will Lyles be better in 2022 than Harvey was in 2021?  Lots of reasons to think he won’t.

I think almost certainly yes, barring injury. 

[Aristotelian]

Lyles is pretty clearly better than Harvey. Pitched more innings, lower ERA, higher K/9, lower WHIP. The only category he was really worse is HR/9. That said I do not think he was $6M better. 

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Lyles is pretty clearly better than Harvey. Pitched more innings, lower ERA, higher K/9, lower WHIP. The only category he was really worse is HR/9. That said I do not think he was $6M better. 

Well it’s not clear when you introduce the outside factors.  I think he’s likely better but it’s not definitive.

[HowAboutThat]

I have a question, how can a guy with such a big ERA “Eat innings” if he’s so bad he can’t make it out of the third inning?

Is the manager just leaving him in for six innings because spent 7 million on him, and damn the score?

By definition, terrible pitchers can’t eat innings because they are terrible.

[Aristotelian]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well it’s not clear when you introduce the outside factors.  I think he’s likely better but it’s not definitive.

Sure, it's baseball and things happen. I see no evidence based reason to think Harvey will be better.  By nearly all metrics Harvey is terrible and Lyles is significantly less bad. I actually wouldn't be surprised if Harvey is done and we never find out. 

[wildcard]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

Ray Searage, who was pitching coach of the Pirates at the time Lyles was there, had an excellent reputation and a very nice run in Pittsburgh, though he was fired at the end of 2019 and the Pirates had their worst ERA during his tenure that season.   Per his Wikipedia page:

As the Pirates' pitching coach, Searage was credited with rejuvenating the careers of Francisco Liriano, Edinson Vólquez, Charlie Morton, J. A. Happ, and A. J. Burnett.

Though Searage had a great career with Pittsburgh, I don't think he was a analytics guy the way Chris Hook is with the Brewers.   And that along with having the 14th staff ERA in 2019 and Manager Hurdle being fired go him fired.  In fact he has not gotten another job in baseball according to Wiki.     Time has passed him by. So I put a lot more faith in what Lyles did with the Brewers in the 2nd half of 2019 then in what Lyles did under Searage in the first half.  

[Tony-OH]

58 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think almost certainly yes, barring injury. 

Well let's look at the expected stats and other pertinent stats from last year.

                          xBA     xSLG     xOBA      XWOBA    XWOBACON   Hard Hit%   K%   B%     xERA
Lyles                 .275     .482       .354          .351         .405                  41.6         19    7.3       5.41  

Harvey             .289      .475      .355           .351        .395                  40.9        16.3    6.4     5.41 

This is while Lyles pitched in the weaker AL West while Harvey pitched in Camden Yards in the hardest Division in baseball.

I say again, Elias just spent $7 million on Matt Harvey. 

[sportsfan8703]

18 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well let's look at the expected stats and other pertinent stats from last year.

                          xBA     xSLG     xOBA      XWOBA    XWOBACON   Hard Hit%   K%   B%     xERA
Lyles                 .275     .482       .354          .351         .405                  41.6         19    7.3       5.41  

Harvey             .289      .475      .355           .351        .395                  40.9        16.3    6.4     5.41 

This is while Lyles pitched in the weaker AL West while Harvey pitched in Camden Yards in the hardest Division in baseball.

I say again, Elias just spent $7 million on Matt Harvey. 

$7 million of confederate money is like $4 million of actual money though. Also, what if there is some type of salary floor for next year and Lyles is the only pitcher that would take our O’s bucks?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

23 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well let's look at the expected stats and other pertinent stats from last year.

                          xBA     xSLG     xOBA      XWOBA    XWOBACON   Hard Hit%   K%   B%     xERA
Lyles                 .275     .482       .354          .351         .405                  41.6         19    7.3       5.41  

Harvey             .289      .475      .355           .351        .395                  40.9        16.3    6.4     5.41 

This is while Lyles pitched in the weaker AL West while Harvey pitched in Camden Yards in the hardest Division in baseball.

I say again, Elias just spent $7 million on Matt Harvey. 

This isn’t putting my concerns at ease, lol. My gut reaction on Lyles is he will get eaten alive in the AL East. 

Gave up a league leading 38 home runs last year. Now he’s pitching at OPACY and other homer friendly AL East ballparks.

I hope, I’m wrong and he’s a mediocre pitcher that gives the Orioles 160 innings pitched. I will gladly eat crow.

You also have to wonder how much the Astros connection factored into giving Lyles $7M. If he came up let’s say in the Pirates organization with no connection to Elias, does Elias sign him to the same contract?

I say no way assuming the same career stat line and Elias not personally observing his development as a pitcher.

 

 

[Sports Guy]

55 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Sure, it's baseball and things happen. I see no evidence based reason to think Harvey will be better.  By nearly all metrics Harvey is terrible and Lyles is significantly less bad. I actually wouldn't be surprised if Harvey is done and we never find out. 

There’s plenty of evidence as to why Lyles may not be any better than Harvey was in 2021.

[Roll Tide]

Intentional tanking 

 

Quote

Jordan Lyles gave up the most earned runs of any AL pitcher in both 2020 and 2021, so it’s like he was already an Oriole in spirit.

Talk about scraping the bottom

 

https://www.camdenchat.com/2021/12/2/22813840/orioles-news-jordan-lyles-signed-pending-physical

[Can_of_corn]

This just looks to be a guy that you sign three days before spring training starts for 3M.