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What’s your 2022 OPS Projection for Cedric Mullins?


Frobby

What’s your 2022 OPS Projection for Cedric Mullins?  

45 members have voted

  1. 1. What’s your OPS projection for Cedric Mullins for 2022?

    • .900 or higher
      0
    • .860 - .899
    • .820 - .859
    • .780 - .819
    • .740 - .779
    • Under .740
      0

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  • Poll closed on 02/28/22 at 22:30

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~.825 OPS

Cools off a little bit from 2021 overall (.878). Fewer homers, but slightly offset by more doubles and triples due in part to the LF adjustments combined with his speed.

Something like .275 / .345 / .480 with ~20 HR and close to ~30 steals again.

Good defense (range driven) and the offensive profile above puts him at about a ~4+ WAR player in 2022.

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I said .820-.859 but IMO it'll be closer to the lower end of that range.

Tony's posted a few times that the peripherals say that his 2021 season was legit so there's reason to think he can do it again.

He did crater in the last two weeks IIRC but with the development of the Crohn's disease news, its understandable as to why.

 

12 hours ago, waroriole said:

Sometimes I wish there was an eye roll upvote

 

Or a beating of a dead horse one?  Me too.

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Depends on which ball the MLB uses?!  2021 first half OPS was .921.  Second half was .822.

He's tough because we really only have 1 year of facing both righty/lefty as a left-handed hitter.  (Makes me wonder if more players should drop switch-hitting...)  As a 40+% pull hitter (and all of his HR to the right side), no impact by the LF wall changes.

2021 -

SLG - .518 and xSLG - .448

BA - .291 and xBA - .272

BB% - up to 8.7 (from 5.2) 

His EV, Hardhit% is about league average.  Better than average K%.  Good speed, the lefty bat, and OPACY RF wall is a good recipe for doubles/triples.  He's 27.

Feels like some downside from .878.  I think it'll be around .820ish with a chance for more.

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  • 8 months later...

Mullins finished with a .721 OPS, lower than any of the 46 guesses in the poll.   Even considering that the league OPS was down 30 points, guesses were way high on him.  Only 2 people had him below .780.   But it still feels like he had a pretty decent season, at 3.8 rWAR.

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52 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Mullins finished with a .721 OPS, lower than any of the 46 guesses in the poll.   Even considering that the league OPS was down 30 points, guesses were way high on him.  Only 2 people had him below .780.   But it still feels like he had a pretty decent season, at 3.8 rWAR.

3.8 rWAR is in the 77th percentile of Major League non-pitchers with at least 350 PAs.  An average player in full-time play is about a 2 WAR.  Yea, pretty decent.

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1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

3.8 rWAR is in the 77th percentile of Major League non-pitchers with at least 350 PAs.  An average player in full-time play is about a 2 WAR.  Yea, pretty decent.

A lot of value in his defense.   Mullins actually had the biggest gap between his median OH projection (.826) and his actual (.721).   Yet, I sense most fans were more disappointed by Mountcastle (.833/.729) and Hays (.790/.719).   I think it’s because Mullins played such good defense, even though his offense fell off. 

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