What’s your 2022 OPS projection for Austin Hays?

[Frobby]

Austin Hays now.   He closed 2021 with a rush to finish at .769.   His career figure is .761.    Where do you think he lands in 2022?

[Sports Guy]

Same as Santander for me..740-800 range is my expectation.  Health will be a big determining factor.

[Aristotelian]

Better question is over-under for games played.

[btdart20]

I bet Hays is really impacted by the LF wall.  His career home OPS is .798.  Career road OPS is .726 and was .693 in 2021. 

If the O's are trying to squeeze out some wins, I can see him being the weak side of a platoon.  His OPS against lefties .817.  Against righties is .729.  His defense is solid, so not sure that will happen.  That's the only path I see to a higher OPS.

.730-.759 range.  

[jamalshw]

This is a hard one. I picked .790-.819, but I expect it very close to that .790 number and teetered on selecting .760-.789. I really expect upper .780s or low .790s and some of that is optimistic. I do think the LF wall has an impact, but I also think while it takes away some HR it could also provide some triples or doubles, they aren't going to all turn into outs. I also expect (hope, maybe) he takes a few strides forward. 

[OriolesMagic83]

25 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I bet Hays is really impacted by the LF wall.  His career home OPS is .798.  Career road OPS is .726 and was .693 in 2021. 

If the O's are trying to squeeze out some wins, I can see him being the weak side of a platoon.  His OPS against lefties .817.  Against righties is .729.  His defense is solid, so not sure that will happen.  That's the only path I see to a higher OPS.

.730-.759 range.  

Hays is a 3+ WAR player when healthy.  He is either a starter or traded. 

[btdart20]

32 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Hays is a 3+ WAR player when healthy.  He is either a starter or traded. 

In 2021 he was a 3+ WAR player.  If he maintains that performance, agreed. 

Really just pointing out his comparative weakness facing righties vs. his strength against lefties more so than suggesting he should be platooned.  

[Aristotelian]

19 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

In 2021 he was a 3+ WAR player.  If he maintains that performance, agreed. 

Really just pointing out his comparative weakness facing righties vs. his strength against lefties more so than suggesting he should be platooned.  

He got pretty close to playing himself into a platoon role. Even with his hot Sept he finished only .221/.683 vs RHP. I think platoon is a real possibility for him. Of course I am hoping that's not the case. 

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

He got pretty close to playing himself into a platoon role. Even with his hot Sept he finished only .221/.683 vs RHP. I think platoon is a real possibility for him. Of course I am hoping that's not the case. 

His career splits and MiL splits suggest he can hit RHP.   We’ll see how it goes in 2022.

[Pickles]

I went 790-820.  I really expect to see Hays establish himself this year.  If he can stay healthy and get consistent playing time.

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I went 790-820.  I really expect to see Hays establish himself this year.  If he can stay healthy and get consistent playing time.

If he's getting consistent playing time while healthy it's probably going to be because he's playing well (establishing himself).  They kind of go hand in hand as long as everyone else isn't wetting the bed.

[Pickles]

28 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If he's getting consistent playing time while healthy it's probably going to be because he's playing well (establishing himself).  They kind of go hand in hand as long as everyone else isn't wetting the bed.

I guess the statement was  bit redundant.

[Ruzious]

He had a .796 OPS in the second half of 2021 (289 plate appearances).  Assuming good health, I don't see why he can't keep that up or perhaps improve.    

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Ruzious said:

He had a .796 OPS in the second half of 2021 (289 plate appearances).  Assuming good health, I don't see why he can't keep that up or perhaps improve.    

And he did that with a torn core muscle, weirdly. 

[interloper]

Hypothetical: if both Hays and Santander have good first halves, would you trade both of them or is that too big of a depth hit at once? Let's say Mullins is playing well and Stowers looks ready for his shot. You'd still need to fill LF with somebody less than ideal, options being McKenna, Stewart, Neustrom if he's still in the org, Nevin, or somebody like Jones or Mateo.