Orioles avoid arbitration with Mancini. Mutual option for 2023.

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, let’s play it out a little.  

Right now our starting OF is Mullins, Hays and Santander, and 1B Mountcastle.  Mancini is the DH.   Stewart and McKenna are the incumbent backups, and neither is really starter material.   

In AAA, we have Diaz, Stowers, Nevin and Neustrom.   None of those guys have shown me yet that they’re as good a hitter as Mancini, or will become that anytime soon.  I’m not saying it can’t happen, but it’s no certainty.   And even if one does, maybe it’s Santander or Hays whose job is jeopardized, depending how they do.   

In AA we really don’t have anyone yet, do we?   Unless you believe in JD Mundy.  We’re not sticking Henderson or Westburg at 1B/DH/COF.   

Below that we have Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo and others, but those guys probably aren’t ready by the start of 2023 IMO.

So, I can see scenarios where another year of Mancini is a good option, if he’s hitting like peak Mancini.  I can see others where he’s redundant or doesn’t fit with a philosophy of spreading DH at bats around.  I can see scenarios where he doesn’t hit well enough this year to be worth keeping.   And of course, if he does hit well, he becomes trade bait in July.  We’ll just have to see how it plays out.   



 

I can buy this scenario a bit, especially if Mancini hits more like his 2019 version. I do think Stowers should push Santander off RF by mid-late year and that would move him to DH. Santander could be Mancini's replacement next year. I also would not bet against Cowser making huge jumps this year. 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I can buy this scenario a bit, especially if Mancini hits more like his 2019 version. I do think Stowers should push Santander off RF by mid-late year and that would move him to DH. Santander could be Mancini's replacement next year. I also would not bet against Cowser making huge jumps this year. 

Yup, I agree it could play out that way.  I do think that Mancini is likely to be the best hitter of the Mancini/Santander/Stowers group, though the other two are better outfielders.  There’s lots of possible outcomes for all three players, so we’ll just see how it goes.   With Cowser, you’d hope for a Stowers-like progression from Hi A to AA to AAA, but even if that occurs, I think mid-2023 is more likely for him than Opening Day 2023.   Even that is slightly optimistic.  

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, let’s play it out a little.  

Right now our starting OF is Mullins, Hays and Santander, and 1B Mountcastle.  Mancini is the DH.   Stewart and McKenna are the incumbent backups, and neither is really starter material.   

In AAA, we have Diaz, Stowers, Nevin and Neustrom.   None of those guys have shown me yet that they’re as good a hitter as Mancini, or will become that anytime soon.  I’m not saying it can’t happen, but it’s no certainty.   And even if one does, maybe it’s Santander or Hays whose job is jeopardized, depending how they do.   

In AA we really don’t have anyone yet, do we?   Unless you believe in JD Mundy.  We’re not sticking Henderson or Westburg at 1B/DH/COF.   

Below that we have Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo and others, but those guys probably aren’t ready by the start of 2023 IMO.

So, I can see scenarios where another year of Mancini is a good option, if he’s hitting like peak Mancini.  I can see others where he’s redundant or doesn’t fit with a philosophy of spreading DH at bats around.  I can see scenarios where he doesn’t hit well enough this year to be worth keeping.   And of course, if he does hit well, he becomes trade bait in July.  We’ll just have to see how it plays out.   



 

Your “none of these guys have shown me they are as good a hitter” comment is where you lost me.

First of all, who cares about that?  They have to get the chance first and you can’t get that chance if you are playing vets that don’t help you long term.

Secondly, it’s about value.  You can get 80% if Mancini for 20% of the cost in most of his seasons.  That’s just the type of player he is.  For any given year, he can be very good but for the most part, he’s an 800ish OpS guy that doesn’t give you much additional value.  Paying 10M for that, on a team that will maybe be a 500 level team and a limited budget is a poor use of resources.

And while a lot of those guys may not be exclusive DHs, they could get time there and having Mancini blocking that isn’t helpful.  
 

 

[Tony-OH]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yup, I agree it could play out that way.  I do think that Mancini is likely to be the best hitter of the Mancini/Santander/Stowers group, though the other two are better outfielders.  There’s lots of possible outcomes for all three players, so we’ll just see how it goes.   With Cowser, you’d hope for a Stowers-like progression from Hi A to AA to AAA, but even if that occurs, I think mid-2023 is more likely for him than Opening Day 2023.   Even that is slightly optimistic.  

I think Cowser is a more mature hitter than Stowers just without the raw power. I could see him getting the Rutschman treatment. Starts at AA, ends up in AAA. Gets an injury next spring and magically arrives after his 7th year of control is attained. I think he could move that fast!

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think Cowser is a more mature hitter than Stowers just without the raw power. I could see him getting the Rutschman treatment. Starts at AA, ends up in AAA. Gets an injury next spring and magically arrives after his 7th year of control is attained. I think he could move that fast!

If he doesn’t move that fast, good chance he has either been hurt or isn’t that good.

[interloper]

.815 OPS between AA and AAA before Trey got the call up. .357 OBP.

Stowers beat both of those numbers by a fair margin last year between 3 levels, but it's the Ks that are really the difference. 171 vs Trey's 140. 

Trey's thing when he came up was he was a guy who really hit the ball hard. And he does. Stowers, folks say the same thing. So they are pretty similar but the upside clearly goes to Stowers, especially when factoring in defense. He has to improve his contact though or he's going to be whiffing a ton at this level.

 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

If he doesn’t move that fast, good chance he has either been hurt or isn’t that good.

We have been through this over and over again.   Very few college players make it to the majors after one full year in the minors.   I gave you names and facts in a post a few months ago.   

This year, Torkelson is starting in the majors.   Is anyone else in that class doing it?  (There actually are two pitchers from that class, Reid Detmers and Garret Crotchet, who debuted last year.)
 

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We have been through this over and over again.   Very few college players make it to the majors after one full year in the minors.   I gave you names and facts in a post a few months ago.   

This year, Torkelson is starting in the majors.   Is anyone else in that class doing it?  (There actually are two pitchers from that class, Reid Detmers and Garret Crotchet, who debuted last year.)
 

But when you are picking in the top 5 if anyone has one of those guys, it should be you.

No one expects a DJ Stewart to jump to the majors that quickly. 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

We have been through this over and over again.   Very few college players make it to the majors after one full year in the minors.   I gave you names and facts in a post a few months ago.   

This year, Torkelson is starting in the majors.   Is anyone else in that class doing it?  (There actually are two pitchers from that class, Reid Detmers and Garret Crotchet, who debuted last year.)
 

No, you have showed why players don’t do it and usually, those players don’t end up that great.  And you have demonstrated why teams may not do it but your evidence has never shown they shouldn’t.  The idea that they don’t isn’t driven by ready or not.

Cowser is an advanced college hitter with an advanced eye at the plate.  He should be at AA to start the year.  There is no reason to have him lower although I suspect he will be.

And if he is at AA and if he is as good a hitter as advertised, there is no reason for him to not be in Norfolk in 3ish months.  And if he goes there and shows how advanced he is, there is very little reason to keep him there.

BTw, Adley is essentially just going to be one year.  He got that very little bit of time in 2019 and last year.  And had they played in 2020, he would have been up in 2021.

Cowser could easily be on that same path.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

But when you are picking in the top 5 if anyone has one of those guys, it should be you.

No one expects a DJ Stewart to jump to the majors that quickly. 

Right..Frobbys research forgets one key thing…are the players good enough?

Cowser should be good enough.

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, you have showed why players don’t do it and usually, those players don’t end up that great.  And you have demonstrated why teams may not do it but your evidence has never shown they shouldn’t.  The idea that they don’t isn’t driven by ready or not.

Cowser is an advanced college hitter with an advanced eye at the plate.  He should be at AA to start the year.  There is no reason to have him lower although I suspect he will be.

And if he is at AA and if he is as good a hitter as advertised, there is no reason for him to not be in Norfolk in 3ish months.  And if he goes there and shows how advanced he is, there is very little reason to keep him there.

BTw, Adley is essentially just going to be one year.  He got that very little bit of time in 2019 and last year.  And had they played in 2020, he would have been up in 2021.

Cowser could easily be on that same path.

I agree in Cowser's case. He's got that advanced plate discipline that should allow him to move quickly through the minor leagues. If he doesn't end the year with some significant AAA time I'll be a little disappointed.

Every player is different but player with elite plate discipline and swing decisions usually will move faster and Cowser may be the best in the organization with this.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

But when you are picking in the top 5 if anyone has one of those guys, it should be you.

No one expects a DJ Stewart to jump to the majors that quickly. 

Here’s the last 10 position players selected out of college at no. 5 before Cowser:

2020 - Austin Martin.   It does not appear he will get to the majors early this year.   He might get there later in the year, but we’ll see. 

2018 - Jonathan India.   He did not reach the majors in 2020 and there was no minor league season.  But he debuted 4/1/21 after playing only one full season (2019) in the minors.  

2016 - Corey Ray.   Did not debut until 2021, and may be a bust.  

2008 - Buster Posey.   Debuted partway through the 2009 season.  

2007 - Matt Wieters.   Debuted 5/25/09, and quite arguably was delayed that long for service time reasons.   

2005 - Ryan Braun.  Debuted 5/25/07, arguably was held back for service time reasons.

2001 - Mark Teixeira.   Debuted 4/1/03.

1992 - Chad Mottola - did not debut until 1996, and wasn’t good.  

1989 - Donald Harris.   Got a September call-up in 1991, wasn’t good.  

1980 - Jeff Pyburn.  Never made the majors.   

So, I’d call it a mixed bag among the high picks.  Certainly the ones who made it to the majors quickly turned out well.  

But to SG’s point (Frobbys research forgets one key thing…are the players good enough?), my prior research was looking at the players who ultimately were successful from one draft class and one debut class.   So it’s not true that I didn’t take into account whether the player was good.  Most players who turn out to be good do not debut early in the season after only one full year of MiL play.   For example, there are 7 position players drafted out of college who debuted in 2019 and have been worth 5+ WAR so far.   Every one of them was drafted in 2016 or before.   So it’s just not right to say that if Cowser isn’t ready for the majors in early 2023, he probably isn’t any good.   






 

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s the last 10 position players selected out of college at no. 5 before Cowser:

2020 - Austin Martin.   It does not appear he will get to the majors early this year.   He might get there later in the year, but we’ll see. 

2018 - Jonathan India.   He did not reach the majors in 2020 and there was no minor league season.  But he debuted 4/1/21 after playing only one full season (2019) in the minors.  

2016 - Corey Ray.   Did not debut until 2021, and may be a bust.  

2008 - Buster Posey.   Debuted partway through the 2009 season.  

2007 - Matt Wieters.   Debuted 5/25/09, and quite arguably was delayed that long for service time reasons.   

2005 - Ryan Braun.  Debuted 5/25/07, arguably was held back for service time reasons.

2001 - Mark Teixeira.   Debuted 4/1/03.

1992 - Chad Mottola - did not debut until 1996, and wasn’t good.  

1989 - Donald Harris.   Got a September call-up in 1991, wasn’t good.  

1980 - Jeff Pyburn.  Never made the majors.   

So, I’d call it a mixed bag among the high picks.  Certainly the ones who made it to the majors quickly turned out well.  

But to SG’s point (Frobbys research forgets one key thing…are the players good enough?), my prior research was looking at the players who ultimately were successful from one draft class and one debut class.   So it’s not true that I didn’t take into account whether the player was good.  Most players who turn out to be good do not debut early in the season after only one full year of MiL play.   For example, there are 7 position players who debuted in 2019 and have been worth 5+ WAR so far.   Every one of them was drafted in 2016 or before.   So it’s just not right to say that if Cowser isn’t ready for the majors in early 2023, he probably isn’t any good.   






 

I wasn't trying to say that a top 5 college pick should be MLB ready in a year.  Obviously it varies with the player.  A guy can be a college guy, be highly thought of, and still have to, for instance, rebuild a swing.

My point was that if anyone in a class was capable of moving that quickly it should be someone that was picked that early.   Folks with that type of skill set are more likely to percolate to the top of the draft.

 

Of course you also end up with the occasional Austin Hays to mix things up.

Edited April 3, 2022 by Can_of_corn
I learned a new word via spelling error.

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I wasn't trying to say that a top 5 college pick should be MLB ready in a year.  Obviously it varies with the player.  A guy can be a college guy, be highly thought of, and still have to, for instance, rebuild a swing.

My point was that if anyone in a class was capable of moving that quickly it should be someone that was picked that early.   Folks with that type of skill set are more likely to percolate to the top of the draft.

 

Of course you also end up with the occasional Austin Hays to mix things up.

Yes, I understood this and agree with you.   I think you can say all of the following;

1.  College  drafted very high are more likely to make it to the majors after only one full year in the minors than players who are drafted lower.  

2.  The players who make it to the majors after only one full season in the minors are likely to turn out to be very good.   

3.  However, the majority of players drafted out of college who turn out to be good do not make it to the majors after only one full season of minor league ball.  

So, I do hope that Cowser plays well enough where he moves very quickly and puts himself in a position to be in the majors in early 2023.    But, if he moves a little more slowly, I won’t be ready to pronounce that he’s not likely to be any good.   I’d certainly be nervous if he didn’t do at least well enough to earn a couple of months in AA this year.  


 

[Sports Guy]

40 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s the last 10 position players selected out of college at no. 5 before Cowser:

2020 - Austin Martin.   It does not appear he will get to the majors early this year.   He might get there later in the year, but we’ll see. 

2018 - Jonathan India.   He did not reach the majors in 2020 and there was no minor league season.  But he debuted 4/1/21 after playing only one full season (2019) in the minors.  

2016 - Corey Ray.   Did not debut until 2021, and may be a bust.  

2008 - Buster Posey.   Debuted partway through the 2009 season.  

2007 - Matt Wieters.   Debuted 5/25/09, and quite arguably was delayed that long for service time reasons.   

2005 - Ryan Braun.  Debuted 5/25/07, arguably was held back for service time reasons.

2001 - Mark Teixeira.   Debuted 4/1/03.

1992 - Chad Mottola - did not debut until 1996, and wasn’t good.  

1989 - Donald Harris.   Got a September call-up in 1991, wasn’t good.  

1980 - Jeff Pyburn.  Never made the majors.   

So, I’d call it a mixed bag among the high picks.  Certainly the ones who made it to the majors quickly turned out well.  

But to SG’s point (Frobbys research forgets one key thing…are the players good enough?), my prior research was looking at the players who ultimately were successful from one draft class and one debut class.   So it’s not true that I didn’t take into account whether the player was good.  Most players who turn out to be good do not debut early in the season after only one full year of MiL play.   For example, there are 7 position players drafted out of college who debuted in 2019 and have been worth 5+ WAR so far.   Every one of them was drafted in 2016 or before.   So it’s just not right to say that if Cowser isn’t ready for the majors in early 2023, he probably isn’t any good.   






 

Your prior research also didn’t take into account injuries and stuff like that.

I posted a rebuttal on several players.  Not all college guys are going to move as fast because they aren’t as good.  If Cowser is as good as advertised, he should move fast.