Creed Willems 2022

[Tony-OH]

Just now, RZNJ said:

You could say that same thing about Mayo but, of course, there's no reason to say that about Mayo.

Except that Mayo was during the COVID shortened year, was a 4th round pick, and actually look s exactly like what you look for in a professional ball player. But yeah, everything was the same!

[RZNJ]

5 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Except that Mayo was during the COVID shortened year, was a 4th round pick, and actually look s exactly like what you look for in a professional ball player. But yeah, everything was the same!

You added in the laugh but it really is the same.  Elias picked Mayo in the 4th and gave him 2nd round money.  He picked Willems in the 8th and gave him, 3rd round money?

Any other team could have drafted Mayo in the 2nd and paid him that bonus but no one felt he was a 2nd round talent.  Perhaps Elias didn't think he was worth a 2nd round pick either. He had the pool savings to overpay in the 4th.

Just because he paid Willems 1M doesn't mean he valued him at whatever slot in the draft where 1M puts you.  He may have viewed  Willems as a 5th round talent and over paid because he could.  

Covid or not, other teams could have drafted Mayo earlier but didn't.  Same thing with Willems.  The difference is that Mayo got more money and has performed while Willems has gotten off to a horrible start and looked out of shape from day one.  Willems could be a complete bust but he still hasn't turned 19, and I'm sure we're all curious to see if he can keep his head above water at Delmarva. 

[Frobby]

The real issue is, what did the O’s see in Willems that warranted a $1 mm bonus? Just raw power and nothing else?   That seems unlikely to me.   They must have thought he had something else going for him.   What?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The real issue is, what did the O’s see in Willems that warranted a $1 mm bonus? Just raw power and nothing else?   That seems unlikely to me.   They must have thought he had something else going for him.   What?

Tinfoil hat time.

Maybe they backed themselves into a corner?

They set up the draft to have X number of dollars for overslot picks and then the targets they really coveted got picked in front of them.  By the time of the Willems pick they had reached the point in which if they were going to go overslot he was the best option left.  So they were left with a situation which they could give Willems the money, spread the money out amongst the draftees that already agreed to sign for less, or deal with the fallout of not spending a huge portion of their pool.

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, RZNJ said:

You added in the laugh but it really is the same.  Elias picked Mayo in the 4th and gave him 2nd round money.  He picked Willems in the 8th and gave him, 3rd round money?

Any other team could have drafted Mayo in the 2nd and paid him that bonus but no one felt he was a 2nd round talent.  Perhaps Elias didn't think he was worth a 2nd round pick either. He had the pool savings to overpay in the 4th.

Just because he paid Willems 1M doesn't mean he valued him at whatever slot in the draft where 1M puts you.  He may have viewed  Willems as a 5th round talent and over paid because he could.  

Covid or not, other teams could have drafted Mayo earlier but didn't.  Same thing with Willems.  The difference is that Mayo got more money and has performed while Willems has gotten off to a horrible start and looked out of shape from day one.  Willems could be a complete bust but he still hasn't turned 19, and I'm sure we're all curious to see if he can keep his head above water at Delmarva. 

The “because he could” part is the exact problem with the overslot theory.  You don’t know what is going to be there to draft and if there will be players worthy of going overslot for, or at least worthy enough to the point where the need to save a lot of money from the first pick is there.

So, you then get to the point where you say, well we have the money to spend, so let’s take this 18 y/o lottery ticket in R8 and see what happens.  Maybe we will get lucky and if not, that’s ok too because he was just an 8th rounder after all.

The problem is, had you just taken the better talent in R1, you would be much more ahead of the game.  
 

 

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Tinfoil hat time.

Maybe they backed themselves into a corner?

They set up the draft to have X number of dollars for overslot picks and then the targets they really coveted got picked in front of them.  By the time of the Willems pick they had reached the point in which if they were going to go overslot he was the best option left.  So they were left with a situation which they could give Willems the money, spread the money out amongst the draftees that already agreed to sign for less, or deal with the fallout of not spending a huge portion of their pool.

That seems unlikely, given that the O’s have no problem with being criticized for being cheap in multiple other ways that are more high profile than draft spending.  

However, I won’t rule it out entirely, since no other player drafted in the 8th round or later got a bonus over $575 k.   In fact, you have to go to the 4th round to find anyone who got a bigger bonus than Willems.  One fifth rounder and one seventh rounder got the same bonus Willems did.  

I’ll make this observation: I don’t expect perfection from Elias.   He’s going to make mistakes in the draft, as he did in Houston.  What I do expect is above average results as a whole.  The jury is out on that.   He did do that in Houston.  

 

[Just Regular]

It isn't hard to imagine the models saying Exit Velocity X is SIGNATURE SIGNIFICANCE and they'll just spend years and years trying to teach him to hit and play the position.

Catchers can be forever.   It surprised me a little as I had a memory of Robinson Chirinos as a hot prospect once upon a time to discover he was near 10 years from affiliating to the Show.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

That seems unlikely, given that the O’s have no problem with being criticized for being cheap in multiple other ways that are more high profile than draft spending.  

However, I won’t rule it out entirely, since no other player drafted in the 8th round or later got a bonus over $575 k.   In fact, you have to go to the 4th round to find anyone who got a bigger bonus than Willems.  One fifth rounder and one seventh rounder got the same bonus Willems did.  

I’ll make this observation: I don’t expect perfection from Elias.   He’s going to make mistakes in the draft, as he did in Houston.  What I do expect is above average results as a whole.  The jury is out on that.   He did do that in Houston.  

 

Everyone acknowledges how difficult the draft is.

The thing is, when you decide to take the lesser player in R1, you are making the conscious decision to say we hope guys fall later and we can get who we want.  When those players don’t fall or they ultimately fail and the guys you passed on in R1 become stars, you deserve to be questioned.

I say there is basically no chance Kjerstad and Cowser were BPA on their boards when they picked them.  Obviously it’s speculation but there is good reason to believe that.  So, they took a player who they ranked and graded to be worse than at least one other guy, to get other players later that may or may not be there and knowing that those players are even bigger long shots to make it than the guy they could have had in R1.  
 

So yea, when you do that and it fails, you deserve criticism even under the umbrella of knowing that the draft is so hard to get right.

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That seems unlikely, given that the O’s have no problem with being criticized for being cheap in multiple other ways that are more high profile than draft spending.  

 

My thinking is that all the rest of the cuts have been under the guise of allocating resources to the rebuild.  You can't make that argument when you leave a million of your draft allotment unspent.

[seak05]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Everyone acknowledges how difficult the draft is.

The thing is, when you decide to take the lesser player in R1, you are making the conscious decision to say we hope guys fall later and we can get who we want.  When those players don’t fall or they ultimately fail and the guys you passed on in R1 become stars, you deserve to be questioned.

I say there is basically no chance Kjerstad and Cowser were BPA on their boards when they picked them.  Obviously it’s speculation but there is good reason to believe that.  So, they took a player who they ranked and graded to be worse than at least one other guy, to get other players later that may or may not be there and knowing that those players are even bigger long shots to make it than the guy they could have had in R1.  
 

So yea, when you do that and it fails, you deserve criticism even under the umbrella of knowing that the draft is so hard to get right.

Even in hindsight the top of the 2020 draft looks blah (after Tork). Heston obviously hasn’t played due to health issues, but given the play of the other “bpa” under slot and getting someone like Mayo seems like the right decision. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, seak05 said:

Even in hindsight the top of the 2020 draft looks blah (after Tork). Heston obviously hasn’t played due to health issues, but given the play of the other “bpa” under slot and getting someone like Mayo seems like the right decision. 

Veen or Meyer could/should have been taken (not even using hindsight) and you still could have had Mayo.  Veen definitely would have still been an underslot guy at #2.

[RZNJ]

The whole theory that the Orioles passed on players that were higher on their board to take Kjerstad and Cowser supposes just that.  I agree that you shouldn't pass on a higher rated player with a top 5 pick to save money later in the draft.

It's tough to prove one way or the other.  In BA it says that the Orioles believed if the 2020 college season had played out that Kjerstad would have been the top college player in the country. 

I have no idea why they passed on Lawlar.   I do believe they had reservations about him.  I don't think Cowser over Lawlar was a pure underslot strategy.  I think they liked Cowser and had reservations about Lawlar.  A year later, Cowser is having struggles of epic proportions and Lawlar looks good.  We'll see.  Lawlar with 10 errors in 21 games at SS.  We'll see.

[seak05]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Veen or Meyer could/should have been taken (not even using hindsight) and you still could have had Mayo.  Veen definitely would have still been an underslot guy at #2.

Now you’re changing your argument and no longer arguing for “bpa” though. And I do find it plausible that the Orioles had Heston rated higher then Veen. It’s also hard to rate Heston as a prospect as he hasn’t played. Coming into the draft he was certainly in the same tier as Veen and Meyer

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Veen or Meyer could/should have been taken (not even using hindsight) and you still could have had Mayo.  Veen definitely would have still been an underslot guy at #2.

You keep talking about Veen.  What's so great about Veen? 20 years old in High A with a .782 OPS and high strikeouts.  There's potential for sure but he might be nothing.

[Sports Guy]

26 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You keep talking about Veen.  What's so great about Veen? 20 years old in High A with a .782 OPS and high strikeouts.  There's potential for sure but he might be nothing.

A few days ago, he had an OPs over 830 and his OBP was almost 400.  He is doing better at the same level than Mayo.  He has a career MiL OPS of 878 and he still has a lot of growth in his body.  He’s clearly off to an excellent start at and he is young for the leagues he is in.