Creed Willems 2022

[Sports Guy]

30 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The whole theory that the Orioles passed on players that were higher on their board to take Kjerstad and Cowser supposes just that.  I agree that you shouldn't pass on a higher rated player with a top 5 pick to save money later in the draft.

It's tough to prove one way or the other.  In BA it says that the Orioles believed if the 2020 college season had played out that Kjerstad would have been the top college player in the country. 

I have no idea why they passed on Lawlar.   I do believe they had reservations about him.  I don't think Cowser over Lawlar was a pure underslot strategy.  I think they liked Cowser and had reservations about Lawlar.  A year later, Cowser is having struggles of epic proportions and Lawlar looks good.  We'll see.  Lawlar with 10 errors in 21 games at SS.  We'll see.

You keep mentioning those errors.  Lots of things go into defense and whether or not those errors matter and whether or not they are something you worry about long term.

But his offense has been excellent and clearly, he is ahead of Cowser now and was ahead of him during the draft process.

Were the Os the only ones who preferred him?  Maybe..but I don’t think that’s likely at all. I think they just didn’t want to pay him and wanted overslots later.  That is pretty consistent with how Elias has done things.  

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

A few days ago, he had an OPs over 830 and his OBP was almost 400.  He is doing better at the same level than Mayo.  He has a career MiL OPS of 878 and he still has a lot of growth in his body.  He’s clearly off to an excellent start at and he is young for the leagues he is in.

Mayo has 7 homers, a .769 OPS and 32 strikeouts  and plays in a pitchers park.  Veen has a .784 OPS,  2 homers and 34 strikeouts. 

So yeah, I can see in your world how Veen is clearly doing better.

[Sports Guy]

35 minutes ago, seak05 said:

Now you’re changing your argument and no longer arguing for “bpa” though. And I do find it plausible that the Orioles had Heston rated higher then Veen. It’s also hard to rate Heston as a prospect as he hasn’t played. Coming into the draft he was certainly in the same tier as Veen and Meyer

Well, you are the one who said the top of the draft looks meh.  I’m saying that’s not accurate and Meyer and Veen are 2 examples of that being wrong.

As for whether or not they would be bpa over Kjerstad, I agree that’s a question. It was close.  I think Meyer would have been rated higher and Veen would have been neck and neck and the Os took the college guy.

I have been of the opinion that Elias never considered a pitcher with that pick. 

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You keep mentioning those errors.  Lots of things go into defense and whether or not those errors matter and whether or not they are something you worry about long term.

But his offense has been excellent and clearly, he is ahead of Cowser now and was ahead of him during the draft process.

Were the Os the only ones who preferred him?  Maybe..but I don’t think that’s likely at all. I think they just didn’t want to pay him and wanted overslots later.  That is pretty consistent with how Elias has done things.  

I believe that if Elias clearly valued Lawlar higher than Cowser, he would have taken Lawlar.  Impossible to prove one way or the other.  We agree that you take the BPA on your board and pay up.

Lawlar looks great. 10 errors in 21 games is pretty meaningless, unless it continues. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Mayo has 7 homers, a .769 OPS and 32 strikeouts  and plays in a pitchers park.  Veen has a .784 OPS,  2 homers and 34 strikeouts. 

So yeah, I can see in your world how Veen is clearly doing better.

Veen’s OBP is 81 points higher and his BA is 40 points higher.  
 

 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Veen’s OBP is 81 points higher and his BA is 40 points higher.  
 

 

So?  Mayo's slugging is higher.  They both strike out a lot but Mayo has the power.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

So?  Mayo's slugging is higher.  They both strike out a lot but Mayo has the power.  

Just dropping by to say that OBP is more valuable than Slugging. 

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Just dropping by to say that OBP is more valuable than Slugging. 

Fine, but I don't think it's clear that Veen is doing better.  32 strikeouts is more acceptable on a slugger than a guy with two homers.  Veen may grow into more power.  Mayo already has it.  Their statistics are fairly close.  I don't know the hitting environment of Veen's league and home park but we know Aberdeen is tough.

[Sports Guy]

I love Mayo..but Veen’s BA/OBp is more valuable right now. 

And Veen has shown plenty of power in his career.    A lot of times, power is the last thing to come.  Veen has a lot more growth into his body, whereas Mayo is already a monster.

BTw, I would take Mayo over Veen overall. Just commenting that you seem to want to knock down Veen (again, his OPS was about 50 points higher 3 days ago) and it’s dumb to do so.  He is off to a great start and had we drafted him, you would be lauding how great of a pick it was and would love his upside.

[RZNJ]

This is a silly argument but what the heck.  Veen plays in Spokane. He has a 874 home OPS and a 704 road OPS.  In 2021 Spokane had the highest run and homerun factors in their league by far.

Mayo interestingly enough is only 636 on the road but has 4 Homers and an 897 OPS in one of the toughest hitters parks in the minors.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

This is a silly argument but what the heck.  Veen plays in Spokane. He has a 874 home OPS and a 704 road OPS.  In 2021 Spokane had the highest run and homerun factors in their league by far.

Mayo interestingly enough is only 636 on the road but has 4 Homers and an 897 OPS in one of the toughest hitters parks in the minors.

Ok.  No one is saying Mayo has less power.  

[RZNJ]

I knock Veen because you keep mentioning how you would have taken him.  Yes, I'd be rooting for him to develop as an Orioles prospect and there are things to like about him. The walks, stolen bases, and projection.  There are some red flags too.   

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ok.  No one is saying Mayo has less power.  

You said Veen is doing better.  That's certainly debatable and not as clear as you like to make everything sound.  

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You said Veen is doing better.  That's certainly debatable and not as clear as you like to make everything sound.  

Well since the BA/OBP combo is more valuable, I do think it’s clear.  And again, a few days ago he was 50ish points clear on OPS.  Maybe he’s about to go in a slump and Mayo passes him but up to this point in this season, Veen has had the better offensive season.

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well since the BA/OBP combo is more valuable, I do think it’s clear.  And again, a few days ago he was 50ish points clear on OPS.  Maybe he’s about to go in a slump and Mayo passes him but up to this point in this season, Veen has had the better offensive season.

A week ago Mayo was over .900 OPS. Don't go there.  TODAY their stats are comparable and Veen plays in extreme hitters park and Mayo plays in an extreme pitchers park.  Can you refute any of those FACTS?