The OH preseason 2022 top 30: stock up, stock down

[Frobby]

Final version of this thread.   Remember, all this is compared to my expectations.  A guy can have a decent year but still fall below expectations and get a stock down grade.  And remember from the OP: no ties.

Stock up: Rutschman, Rodriguez, Henderson, Westburg, Stowers, Norby, Bradish, Kjerstad, Basallo, Bautista, Ortiz, Vavra,  Haskin.

Stock down: Hall, Mayo, Cowser, Rom, Pinto, Lowther, Baumler, Baumann, Hernandez, Young, Rhodes, Williams, Trimble, Willems, Deson, Servideo, Rangel.

Some of my stock down grades are pretty tough, but my expectations were high.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

 

Final version of this thread.   Remember, all this is compared to my expectations.  A guy can have a decent year but still fall below expectations and get a stock down grade.  And remember from the OP: no ties.

Stock up: Rutschman, Rodriguez, Henderson, Westburg, Stowers, Norby, Bradish, Kjerstad, Basallo, Bautista, Ortiz, Vavra,  Haskin.

Stock down: Hall, Mayo, Cowser, Rom, Pinto, Lowther, Baumler, Baumann, Hernandez, Young, Rhodes, Williams, Trimble, Willems, Deson, Servideo, Rangel.

Some of my stock down grades are pretty tough, but my expectations were high.

Wow!  What were your expectations for Cowser?  He was better than I expected.  I would put Cowser and Hall in the stock up.  Hall dominated, at times, in AAA, and looked like a good ML setup guy will be his floor by the end of the season.  I wasn't expecting better than that.

Edited November 19, 2022 by RZNJ

[forphase1]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Wow!  What were your expectations for Cowser?  He was better than I expected.  I would put Cowser and Hall in the stock up.  Hall dominated, at times, in AAA, and looked like a good ML setup guy will be his floor by the end of the season.  I wasn't expecting better than that.

I agree with you on Cowser, but Hall was definitely stock down.  Yes, he dominated, AT TIMES, and other times looked very average.  Not what I expect out of someone so highly touted.  My expectations was also for him to be a starter, and the fact he ended up being in the bullpen was another factor for me agreeing with his stock going down.  Sure, bullpen may end up being where he ends up playing, but that'll be disappointing if so.  

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Wow!  What were your expectations for Cowser?  He was better than I expected.  I would put Cowser and Hall in the stock up.  Hall dominated, at times, in AAA, and looked like a good ML setup guy will be his floor by the end of the season.  I wasn't expecting better than that.

Like I said, I had high expectations for both.  Hall was much more inconsistent than I expected and Cowser had way more swing and miss than I expected.  Granted, he was awesome at Bowie.   Aberdeen and Norfolk, not do much.  

It’s not like I’m way down on either player.  I still have high hopes for both.  
 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Like I said, I had high expectations for both.  Hall was much more inconsistent than I expected and Cowser had way more swing and miss than I expected.  Granted, he was awesome at Bowie.   Aberdeen and Norfolk, not do much.  

It’s not like I’m way down on either player.  I still have high hopes for both.  
 

In Cowser’s defense, he went from a player with a 15% K rate and .082 ISO at Delmarva to a 25% K rate and .227 ISO at Bowie and 30% K rate and .210 ISO at Norfolk.  That’s not something to be disappointed in.  That’s something to be understood and applauded.   He still possesses the skills he had at Delmarva but he didn’t play it safe.   He took his offensive game up two notches but he had a few hiccups along the way.  I think he has the most offensive potential in the system along with Henderson.   I think last season was one step back two steps forward for Cowser.

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, RZNJ said:

In Cowser’s defense, he went from a player with a 15% K rate and .082 ISO at Delmarva to a 25% K rate and .227 ISO at Bowie and 30% K rate and .210 ISO at Norfolk.  That’s not something to be disappointed in.  That’s something to be understood and applauded.   He still possesses the skills he had at Delmarva but he didn’t play it safe.   He took his offensive game up two notches but he had a few hiccups along the way.  I think he has the most offensive potential in the system along with Henderson.   I think last season was one step back two steps forward for Cowser.

Well, I hope you are right about his offensive potential.  If so, he’ll be stock up next year! 

[Tony-OH]

On 11/19/2022 at 9:44 PM, Frobby said:

Like I said, I had high expectations for both.  Hall was much more inconsistent than I expected and Cowser had way more swing and miss than I expected.  Granted, he was awesome at Bowie.   Aberdeen and Norfolk, not do much.  

It’s not like I’m way down on either player.  I still have high hopes for both.  
 

You are right on Cowser. His strikeouts rate to get to his power is worrisome as well as his inability to hit left-handers. His heater at Bowie skewed very mediocre stats at both Aberdeen and more worrisome, at Norfolk where he was a K machine.

There are things to like about Cowser though, but he was a slight disappointment for me as well as I expected a high OBP, low K guy with occasional pop and ended up with a guy with a very high K rate for a guy who struggled to get to his power away from the Eastern League.

Still a top-10 prospect in a very stacked system due to his ability get on base, but yeah, if you had very high expectations for him like I did after his debut, I can see how he was a slight disappointment overall.

 

[RZNJ]

30 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You are right on Cowser. His strikeouts rate to get to his power is worrisome as well as his inability to hit left-handers. His heater at Bowie skewed very mediocre stats at both Aberdeen and more worrisome, at Norfolk where he was a K machine.

There are things to like about Cowser though, but he was a slight disappointment for me as well as I expected a high OBP, low K guy with occasional pop and ended up with a guy with a very high K rate for a guy who struggled to get to his power away from the Eastern League.

Still a top-10 prospect in a very stacked system due to his ability get on base, but yeah, if you had very high expectations for him like I did after his debut, I can see how he was a slight disappointment overall.

 

How did he struggle to get to his power away from the Eastern League?

In AA he had 10 doubles and 10 homers in 224 PA.  In AAA he had 7 doubles and 5 homers in 124 PA.  

[RZNJ]

I just don’t get it.  If you told me at the beginning of the year that Cowser would play all of September in AAA and most people thought he was figuring prominently in plans for the 2023 team, I would have been pretty happy.   Not to mention, that instead of a .280-300 hitter with 15 home run power he might actually be a .260 hitter with 25-30 home run power but with more strikeouts but the same on base capability I would take that trade off as well.   But it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that we could have the best of both worlds.

Look at Norby.  Look at Westburg.  Even look at Stowers.  The first step is tapping into the power.  Strikeouts be damned.  The next step is refining the approach and cutting down the strikeouts.

Stowers cut his K’s from 30% to 25% from 21 to 22.   Westburg went from 25% down to 20% his last month in Norfolk.  Norby’s strikeout percentage decreased as his levels increased.   Cowser has the foundation of being a contact over power guy.   I’m pretty damn happy with the season he had although, in real time, the strikeouts really bothered me.   They are still a red flag but I am very happy with where he is in his development heading into 2023.

Edited November 21, 2022 by RZNJ

[Tony-OH]

34 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I just don’t get it.  If you told me at the beginning of the year that Cowser would play all of September in AAA and most people thought he was figuring prominently in plans for the 2023 team, I would have been pretty happy.   Not to mention, that instead of a .280-300 hitter with 15 home run power he might actually be a .260 hitter with 25-30 home run power but with more strikeouts but the same on base capability I would take that trade off as well.   But it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that we could have the best of both worlds.

Look at Norby.  Look at Westburg.  Even look at Stowers.  The first step is tapping into the power.  Strikeouts be damned.  The next step is refining the approach and cutting down the strikeouts.

Stowers cut his K’s from 30% to 25% from 21 to 22.   Westburg went from 25% down to 20% his last month in Norfolk.  Norby’s strikeout percentage decreased as his levels increased.   Cowser has the foundation of being a contact over power guy.   I’m pretty damn happy with the season he had although, in real time, the strikeouts really bothered me.   They are still a red flag but I am very happy with where he is in his development heading into 2023.

Why does it bother you so much if people don't share your unbridled enthusiasm over an Orioles prospect?

Cowser did some good things in 2022, but his inability to hit lefties at all is a concern for a full time player and that skyrocketing K rate to get to his 19 homers is a concern for me. 

I still think he's a prospect, I just think his year was a little disappointing overall due to the K rate and lack of hitting lefties.

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Why does it bother you so much if people don't share your unbridled enthusiasm over an Orioles prospect?

Cowser did some good things in 2022, but his inability to hit lefties at all is a concern for a full time player and that skyrocketing K rate to get to his 19 homers is a concern for me. 

I still think he's a prospect, I just think his year was a little disappointing overall due to the K rate and lack of hitting lefties.

It’s a message board.  I’m expressing an opinion.  Pointing out that Cowsers season should not be considered a disappointment automatically gets the orange colored sunglasses, silly fan who can’t be objective, unbridled enthusiasm, type of rebuttal.  Over his last 77 PA in AAA he had 5 doubles, 3 homers, and 16 strikeouts.  I’ve laid out my reason why the K rate is a concern but why I believe he will PROBABLY be just fine.

I also explained how Cowser getting to AAA, with an .824 OPS in September and finishing strongly should be considered anything but disappointing.  If you, Frobby, and others disagree it’s fine with me.  Maybe my argument might be of interest to someone else.

[Hank Scorpio]

I think that a lot of this is semantics. 

As the great Thomas Sowell once said, "There are no solutions, there are only trade-offs." 

Cowser made some trade-offs last year. Obviously the org was okay with that considering his meteoric rise. 

Will the real Colton Cowser please stand up!?!?!?!

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

It’s a message board.  I’m expressing an opinion.  Pointing out that Cowsers season should not be considered a disappointment automatically gets the orange colored sunglasses, silly fan who can’t be objective, unbridled enthusiasm, type of rebuttal.  Over his last 77 PA in AAA he had 5 doubles, 3 homers, and 16 strikeouts.  I’ve laid out my reason why the K rate is a concern but why I believe he will PROBABLY be just fine.

I also explained how Cowser getting to AAA, with an .824 OPS in September and finishing strongly should be considered anything but disappointing.  If you, Frobby, and others disagree it’s fine with me.  Maybe my argument might be of interest to someone else.

I have zero issues with you having an opinion, but you have a combative style with anyone who doesn't think every Orioles prospects is fantastic. Frobby and I said "slight disappointment"
 based off our expectations. 

 

[interloper]

Cowser had to work through a new approach at the plate, then had to scale it back to a more hybrid approach, all while nevertheless having overall success and blasting through several farm teams. 

The fact that he isn't having Adley- or Gunnar-like success cannot really be described as a disappointment, slight or otherwise. He's playing up to his draft class in every way and on track to debut next season. 

Edited November 21, 2022 by interloper

[RZNJ]

36 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I have zero issues with you having an opinion, but you have a combative style with anyone who doesn't think every Orioles prospects is fantastic. Frobby and I said "slight disappointment"
 based off our expectations. 

 

 That's just you with the put down again.   I hardly think every prospect is fantastic.    I'm more reserved on Coby Mayo than you are, for one.

Cowser's strikeout numbers are disappointing but OVERALL in EVERY single other category you'd have to be pleased with his progress in 2022.   Along with that, he made it to AAA in his first full season.   Was that your expectation?   Was that Frobby's expectation?    If I'm not mistaken, everyone inlcuding you and Frobby are expecting him to take over the LF or RF job by midseason.    I'd be curious to know what your (and Frobby's) expectation was for Cowser in 2022 because it's hard to believe he didn't meet them, let alone surpass them.