Underrated: Trey Mancini

[DrungoHazewood]

18 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Mancini likely won’t get the 5/100 that Nick Castellanos got, but they are pretty similar. Mancini is going to get more than what we’re thinking in FA, especially with having another full season remover from cancer, and the NL having a DH. People have been saying 3/45. I think that would be the starting point and he’d likely choose more years over AAV. 

The Castellanos deal is ludicrous, but he's really not much better than Mancini.  I just don't get some teams' player evaluations.  Castellanos had a 3.5 win career year at 29 after years of being an average+ player, and then you sign him to a 5/100 deal?  I guess a lot of teams have a lot of cash lying around and are willing to accept 2, 3, 4 years of $20M bills for below-average players.

Hopefully someone irrationally breaks the bank for Mancini, he's a nice guy.

[interloper]

On 6/4/2022 at 12:01 PM, Frobby said:

Along with just just about everyone else, I assume that Trey Mancini is likely to be traded this year and won’t be back next year.   And, I assume Kyle Stowers is likely to replace him.   

I think that’s all logical, but I’m just going to come out and say it: Trey Mancini is underrated and won’t be that easy to replace.   

Right now Trey is at 134 OPS+ and has been worth 1.5 rWAR in 1/3 of a season.  He’s a reliably above average hitter, with a career 117 OPS+.   And as I watch him this year, I won’t be surprised if the best is yet to come this season.   He’s really swinging it well, but the power hasn’t quite been there and the new wall has hurt him.   

I don’t think it’s likely that Stowers will ever be as good a hitter as Trey is.   Will be be better defensively?  Sure.   Will he ever have a 3.7 rWAR season like Trey did in 2019 (and which he may top this year)?    Will he be able to match Trey’s career 9.6 rWAR (and counting)?   Maybe, but the odds are against him.  

The truth is, a 9.6 rWAR player is nothing to sneeze at, and not that easy to replace.   The O’s have only drafted seven players this century with a higher career WAR total than Mancini.  

So, I’m not saying we should keep Mancini.   I’m saying we should appreciate what he has accomplished, and not just assume he’ll be easy to replace.   And I haven’t even mentioned the example he set coming back from cancer.   



 

Yep. The hard truth is we will be replacing his excellent ABs with significantly worse ABs. Hopefully Stowers hits bombs but if he's just another Mountcastle, well, that's a downgrade from Mancini.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

Yep. The hard truth is we will be replacing his excellent ABs with significantly worse ABs. Hopefully Stowers hits bombs but if he's just another Mountcastle, well, that's a downgrade from Mancini.

Well, he won’t be another Mountcastle, because he’s a much more selective hitter.   But, his contact skills are not as good as Mancini’s (or Mountcastle’s for that matter).  I’m looking forward to seeing Stowers, but I wish it wasn’t at Mancini’s expense.  I’ve really enjoyed rooting for Trey.    He’s fun to watch as a hitter and he’s admirable as a person.  It’s just a shame that he came along just as the team was crumbling.   In another scenario, he could have been a solid contributor to a good team.  He still can be for a few years, but probably it won’t be for us.  

[Roll Tide]

On 6/4/2022 at 12:18 PM, Frobby said:

Don’t get me wrong, Stowers could turn out to be a better player than Trey.   Someone suggested Luke Scott with a better glove as a ceiling, and if so, that’s a 15-20 WAR player.   But in the range of possible outcomes, over 9.6 rWAR is probably a 75th percentile outcome for Stowers.   

Letting go Trey is a mistake if you don’t get something for him in a deal. I don’t worry about the salary since we aren’t paying anybody beyond Chris Davis. We could front load a deal imo

[Can_of_corn]

22 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Letting go Trey is a mistake if you don’t get something for him in a deal. I don’t worry about the salary since we aren’t paying anybody beyond Chris Davis. We could front load a deal imo

Also Cobb and O'Day.

[Frobby]

58 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Also Cobb and O'Day.

I thought Atlanta picked up all of O’Day’s deferred payments.   Even if not, we would have been obligated to put his deferred comp into escrow before now.  Same with Cobb except for deferred comp for the last year.  

[Just Regular]

9 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The Castellanos deal is ludicrous, but he's really not much better than Mancini.  I just don't get some teams' player evaluations.  Castellanos had a 3.5 win career year at 29 after years of being an average+ player, and then you sign him to a 5/100 deal?  I guess a lot of teams have a lot of cash lying around and are willing to accept 2, 3, 4 years of $20M bills for below-average players.

Hopefully someone irrationally breaks the bank for Mancini, he's a nice guy.

Dombrowski pushing hard for the inside straight with his busted Bryce hand, but its the only way he plays.

Dan Szymborski's broad brush after Schwarber atop Castellanos for that misshapen roster was that its an inefficient way to buy Wins, but these Phillies are at a point in the curve where Buying Wins period urgent even if it is inefficient.

The Marlins seem to have played their way out of 2022, but if there is a silly buyer for Mullins or Hays this summer, that OF situation seems like as good a bet as any.

[OriolesMagic83]

On 6/10/2022 at 1:07 PM, sportsfan8703 said:

Mancini likely won’t get the 5/100 that Nick Castellanos got, but they are pretty similar. Mancini is going to get more than what we’re thinking in FA, especially with having another full season remover from cancer, and the NL having a DH. People have been saying 3/45. I think that would be the starting point and he’d likely choose more years over AAV. 

Mancini is an OF now according to the O's.  Never hurts too improve your positional flexibilty.  I could see Mancini getting a 3 yeat deal but not at $15 mill/yr.  Who knows, maybe there another Philly type team that doesn't care about defense.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Also Cobb and O'Day.

$15.8M out of $43.7M in payroll is being spent on players no longer on the team this year. 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/baltimore-orioles/payroll/

Payroll Type		Base Salary	Signing Bonus	Incentives	Total Salary	Total Adj. Salary
Active Payroll		$33,526,500	$500,000	-	$34,026,500	$32,935,822
Injured List Money		$5,051,000	-	-	$5,051,000	$4,950,948
Retained Salary		$5,849,466	-	-	$5,849,466	$5,849,466
Deferred Salary		$9,000,000	$1,000,000	-	$10,000,000	$10,000,000
Total Payroll		$44,426,966	$500,000	-	$44,926,966	$43,736,236