This is a pretty uninspiring list, overall....

[DocJJ]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_Major_League_Baseball_draft_picks

 

I like to think that scouting and evaluating has come a long way and is more accurate nowadays with advanced metrics and spin rates, and exit velocities, and all of that kind of stuff....

 

I don't know how true that is, but I like to think it!

 

[DocJJ]

Don't know who Danny Goodwin was but he was picked at #1 overall twice and still stunk....

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, DocJJ said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_Major_League_Baseball_draft_picks

 

I like to think that scouting and evaluating has come a long way and is more accurate nowadays with advanced metrics and spin rates, and exit velocities, and all of that kind of stuff....

 

I don't know how true that is, but I like to think it!

 

Yep, you'd like to think that.

Then you look at Appel's name on the list.

Then you look up Torkelson's numbers to date.

[DocJJ]

Looking at this list makes me never want to choose a pitcher....

[DocJJ]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yep, you'd like to think that.

Then you look at Appel's name on the list.

Then you look up Torkelson's numbers to date.

I think Tork will be fine in time.  He was rushed to the majors and probably could have used more time in the minors...

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, DocJJ said:

Looking at this list makes me never want to choose a pitcher....

Really?

Some very nice pitchers on that list.  Guys with solid ML careers.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, DocJJ said:

I think Tork will be fine in time.  He was rushed to the majors and probably could have used more time in the minors...

I think he'll be fine.

I don't think he'll be the type of special player you hope for at 1-1.

I don't think more time in the minors (he had a 935 OPS there) would change that.

[DocJJ]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Really?

Some very nice pitchers on that list.  Guys with solid ML careers.

Yes, but percentage wise:

 

18 total pitchers taken with the #1 overall pick:

9 complete duds (that's a 50% chance of a landing a complete dud with the #1 overall pick!  Yikes!)

5 decent-to-ok (.500 win-loss record, career ERA around 4.00, maybe an All-Star appearance or 2)

3 studs (I consider Strasburg, Price, and Cole studs)

1 too soon to tell...

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think he'll be fine.

I don't think he'll be the type of special player you hope for at 1-1.

I don't think more time in the minors (he had a 935 OPS there) would change that.

I think Tork was fine to take at 1 in that draft.  It was an overall weak draft at the top.  But I agree that you don’t usually want to take a first baseman first overall.  

[Sports Guy]

Just now, DocJJ said:

Yes, but percentage wise:

 

18 total pitchers taken with the #1 overall pick:

9 complete duds (that's a 50% chance of a landing a complete dud with the #1 overall pick!  Yikes!)

5 decent-to-ok (.500 win-loss record, career ERA around 4.00, maybe an All-Star appearance or 2)

3 studs (I consider Strasburg, Price, and Cole studs)

1 too soon to tell...

The hit rate for the first round in general is around 50% but overall the first pick is far more valuable than any other pick, historically speaking.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

Yes, but percentage wise:

 

18 total pitchers taken with the #1 overall pick:

9 complete duds (that's a 50% chance of a landing a complete dud with the #1 overall pick!  Yikes!)

5 decent-to-ok (.500 win-loss record, career ERA around 4.00, maybe an All-Star appearance or 2)

3 studs (I consider Strasburg, Price, and Cole studs)

1 too soon to tell...

Picking a name I recognized.

Tim Belcher pitched in the majors for 14 years.

That's doing better than say a Tim Beckham.

I'd say the best player in Belcher's draft class was a pitcher.

[DocJJ]

Hit rate for hitters I count 24 out of 34 picks at least decent (above average to star level) with 3 HOF and another 2-3 HOF credentials.  So better overall by a fair margin than the pitchers taken, and a 17% chance at landing a Hall of Fame caliber player vs zero for pitcher (unless you think Cole or Strasburg can stay healthy and do well enough to get in one day).

 

 

[DocJJ]

2 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

Hit rate for hitters I count 24 out of 34 picks at least decent (above average to star level) with 3 HOF and another 2-3 HOF credentials.  So better overall by a fair margin than the pitchers taken, and a 17% chance at landing a Hall of Fame caliber player vs zero for pitcher (unless you think Cole or Strasburg can stay healthy and do well enough to get in one day).

 

 

So success rate 70% position players, 44% pitchers.   And some of those "successful" pitchers only played 5 seasons....

Now steroids may have skewed the numbers some, tough to say....   

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

So success rate 70% position players, 44% pitchers.   And some of those "successful" pitchers only played 5 seasons....

Now steroids may have skewed the numbers some, tough to say....   

Why would steroids help one side more than the other?

[DocJJ]

 

 

There was a higher percentage of position players chosen at #1 overall than pitchers taken #1 overall during the PED era.