Rosenthal: Os could be buyers and sellers

[FlipTheBird]

5 hours ago, waroriole said:

I don’t know what you mean. He’s already passed the extra year of service time. And already passed the Super 2 deadline. Elias has already said he’ll be up this year. At this point, it really is just about his development. 
 

But I’d start using his remaining innings in Baltimore. It’s time to optimize the roster for wins after the break. Get Stowers, Hall, and Westburg up now. Send down McKenna, Nevin, and Garcia. Stowers can be rotated in enough to play 3-4 times per week as he gets his feet wet. Westburg can play 5 times per week, and Hall can pitch in an Akin role out of the pen. 

I just don't envision Westburg or Stowers arriving until the guys currently blocking them are actually gone gone. 

[Roll Tide]

Pablo Lopez anyone? Lower cost option according to the MLBTR article . 2.45 million salary and controllable through 2024. Seems to me he’d cost more in trade chips and I’m sure Elias would rather get the guy he can give up next to nothing. It’ll be interesting to see if John Angelos allows him to do the smarter thing which is take a salary dump like Snell or Bumgarner.

I like Lopez but! If he were an Oriole I’d be looking for 3 to 4 prospects that include a headliner that you don’t want to give away.

I think the conversation starts with DL Hall or one of our near ready AAA infielders.

I’m interested to hear what you guys think!

 

Quote

Feinsand, meanwhile, hears industry chatter the O’s might try to make a push for Marlins starter Pablo López. Unlike Snell, López is eminently affordable ($2.45MM salary) and arbitration-eligible through 2024. It’s easy to see the appeal for Baltimore, but the vast majority of teams around the league would be involved in Miami were to make López available. The Fish entered play Tuesday four games back in the National League Wild Card race and don’t seem likely to shop the 26-year-old over the next few weeks anyhow.

 

 

[LA2]

On 7/12/2022 at 3:14 PM, Roll Tide said:

Interesting article ….somehow I cam see the whole article without a membership 

 

https://theathletic.com/3416811/2022/07/11/baltimore-orioles-trade-deadline-plan/

Thanks, but I only got to read a sentence or two before the subscription-required banner shut the gate.

[btdart20]

4 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Pablo Lopez anyone? Lower cost option according to the MLBTR article . 2.45 million salary and controllable through 2024. Seems to me he’d cost more in trade chips and I’m sure Elias would rather get the guy he can give up next to nothing. It’ll be interesting to see if John Angelos allows him to do the smarter thing which is take a salary dump like Snell or Bumgarner.

I like Lopez but! If he were an Oriole I’d be looking for 3 to 4 prospects that include a headliner that you don’t want to give away.

I think the conversation starts with DL Hall or one of our near ready AAA infielders.

I’m interested to hear what you guys think!

 

From a stats perspective:  Lopez is who he is.  

Above average K% and BB%.  But both are worse than last year.  His K/9 dropped from 10.1 to 8.7.  His H/9 has improved, but likely tied to the Babip dropping from .302 last year to .256 this year.  His GB rates are better than average (likely a result of the good movement on the sinker/changeup).  He has historically limited HH% and that's consistent this year too.  Nothing out of line with his HR allowed rates (and similar expected HR at OPACY this year too).  His 4-seamer is 92 (a tick down from last year) with well below average movement (and that's been consistent over his career).  Only change in his pitch mix is that he's throwing the changeup more and the curveball less.  ERA is 2.86, xERA is 3.81, SIERA is 3.67, FIP is 3.64.  

He'll likely see some ERA regression as his Babip normalizes toward .290-.300 range.  But we're still looking at a solid 3.00-3.50 ERA type guy.

From a trade perspective, it'll definitely take more to consummate this deal than most others...  But Lopez is a proven MLB started who's under team control through 2025 and fits the type of SP we should be buying. 

But (personally) I don't like trading DL Hall.  (Maybe my Hope-o-Meter needs adjusting, but I'm pretty high on Hall long-term.)  I would trade Mullins (and BP arm/lesser prospects) for Lopez. 

[Brooks The Great]

2 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

From a stats perspective:  Lopez is who he is.  

Above average K% and BB%.  But both are worse than last year.  His K/9 dropped from 10.1 to 8.7.  His H/9 has improved, but likely tied to the Babip dropping from .302 last year to .256 this year.  His GB rates are better than average (likely a result of the good movement on the sinker/changeup).  He has historically limited HH% and that's consistent this year too.  Nothing out of line with his HR allowed rates (and similar expected HR at OPACY this year too).  His 4-seamer is 92 (a tick down from last year) with well below average movement (and that's been consistent over his career).  Only change in his pitch mix is that he's throwing the changeup more and the curveball less.  ERA is 2.86, xERA is 3.81, SIERA is 3.67, FIP is 3.64.  

He'll likely see some ERA regression as his Babip normalizes toward .290-.300 range.  But we're still looking at a solid 3.00-3.50 ERA type guy.

From a trade perspective, it'll definitely take more to consummate this deal than most others...  But Lopez is a proven MLB started who's under team control through 2025 and fits the type of SP we should be buying. 

But (personally) I don't like trading DL Hall.  (Maybe my Hope-o-Meter needs adjusting, but I'm pretty high on Hall long-term.)  I would trade Mullins (and BP arm/lesser prospects) for Lopez. 

I'd have no problem whatsoever trading Hall as part of a package for Lopez, and prefer dealing Hall to Mullins. Lopez is basically what you hope turns Hall turns out to be in 2 or 3 years even though they are different kinds of pitchers, but Lopez is an established, closer-to-sure thing. Hall has a ton of risk with his control issues and injury concerns (as most pitchers have, but Hall a bit more so).

[jabba72]

5 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Pablo Lopez anyone? Lower cost option according to the MLBTR article . 2.45 million salary and controllable through 2024. Seems to me he’d cost more in trade chips and I’m sure Elias would rather get the guy he can give up next to nothing. It’ll be interesting to see if John Angelos allows him to do the smarter thing which is take a salary dump like Snell or Bumgarner.

I like Lopez but! If he were an Oriole I’d be looking for 3 to 4 prospects that include a headliner that you don’t want to give away.

I think the conversation starts with DL Hall or one of our near ready AAA infielders.

I’m interested to hear what you guys think!

 

 

 

I hope the O's aren't zeroing in on Lopez because of his low salary. Even the article suggests there could be a bidding war for him if the Marlins make him available. 

[Just Regular]

If Lopez became an Oriole, he'd really solidify himself for me as John Means' cousin from another country.

I believe there was a Pablo Lopez-John Means game around the time Means was losing his dad and IIRC it had been in the news Pablo Lopez lost a close family member at about the same time.     Where he is in the service time game, how good I feel he is if he's the good version of himself, its just John Means.

If we were tracing towards another 100 losses and Means was ~85% of Bedard, what would we want for him?

[sportsfan8703]

The Giants just DFA’d LH Jake McGee. He has a 7 ERA, but a 4.14 FIP. His Ks are down big time. It would be nice to sign him after he clears waivers and let him try and get himself right down in AAA for 3-5 appearances. The guy had 31 saves last year. 

[DrungoHazewood]

20 hours ago, btdart20 said:

But (personally) I don't like trading DL Hall.  (Maybe my Hope-o-Meter needs adjusting, but I'm pretty high on Hall long-term.)  I would trade Mullins (and BP arm/lesser prospects) for Lopez. 

My 50-year-old brain has trouble recalibrating to 2022 expectations, but it still boggles the mind that Hall has a higher strikeout rate as a starter in AAA than Armando Benitez did as a closer in AA.  Benitez was fast-tracked to the majors because his strikeout rate was so ridiculous.

Benitez' career AAA K rate was 11.8, Hall's 14.8.  Benitez faced 4.9 batters/appearance. Hall 18.4.

[FlipTheBird]

9 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The Giants just DFA’d LH Jake McGee. He has a 7 ERA, but a 4.14 FIP. His Ks are down big time. It would be nice to sign him after he clears waivers and let him try and get himself right down in AAA for 3-5 appearances. The guy had 31 saves last year. 

Strikeout rate way down, everything else way up, he's 35 and could easily just be toast. Even if we traded a couple relievers I don't know if they'd be able to find room in the pen for that guy.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, FlipTheBird said:

Strikeout rate way down, everything else way up, he's 35 and could easily just be toast. Even if we traded a couple relievers I don't know if they'd be able to find room in the pen for that guy.

I would bet on him having at least one more above average season as a reliever if he keeps pitching for a while.  That said, he could be complete garbage the rest of this year too. 

[sportsfan8703]

19 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I would bet on him having at least one more above average season as a reliever if he keeps pitching for a while.  That said, he could be complete garbage the rest of this year too. 

I’d love McGee on a milb deal and let him figure things out in 5 IP in AAA then help us for the stretch run.